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	<title>Deep Into Sports &#187; barry bonds</title>
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		<title>Cinderella Story, Part 2&#8230; Who&#8217;s to Blame?</title>
		<link>http://www.deepintosports.com/2009/02/18/a-rod-steroids-stats-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.deepintosports.com/2009/02/18/a-rod-steroids-stats-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 01:13:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Gary Porpora</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[a-rod]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alex rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ballpark at arlington]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[mark mcgwire]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[rafael palmeiro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sammy sosa]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[OUR STARS, OUR SELVES Pundits, philosophers, and various sports “punjabberwockers” have weighed in on the A-Roid revelations. Almost all place the blame on, of course, A-Hole and his fellow players. Others blame the Commish, Bud Selig&#8211;whose initials flirt with cosmic perfection&#8211;and still more point to Major League Baseball Players Association head Donald Fehr as being [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>OUR STARS, OUR SELVES</strong></p>
<p>Pundits, philosophers, and various sports “punjabberwockers” have weighed in on the A-Roid revelations.</p>
<p>Almost all place the blame on, of course, A-Hole and his fellow players.  Others blame the Commish, Bud Selig&#8211;whose initials flirt with cosmic perfection&#8211;and still more point to Major League Baseball Players Association head Donald Fehr as being the most sinister culprit.</p>
<p>This three-headed gorilla faces constant attacks in Blogville, on the ESPN networks and from just about every other media outlet.</p>
<p>But, if you listen carefully, the peals of angry opinion, analysis, and reportage ring shallow.</p>
<p>When the A-Shame story broke, I had my finger on the pulse of my television’s remote, and found myself quickly changing channels.</p>
<p>I could no longer take the deafening echo.</p>
<p>Imagine John Stewart flashing a patented “Daily Show” montage of identical tripe from every source on television; all pointing to the same 762 pound, three-headed gorilla while ignoring two equally weighty, and evidently, invisible cousins.</p>
<p>I shut off my television in disgust.  Staring into the abyss and, upon reflection, one of those seldom acknowledged apes, all 755 pounds of him, appeared on my blackened television screen&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>DIE-HARD FANS</strong></p>
<p>For the record, I admit it.  I am to blame for the steroids scandal.  However, I will only bear that responsibility and share that dishonor if the legion of American baseball fans join me.</p>
<p>When the homers were flying out of American ballparks as the century began its slow turn, how many baseball fans questioned the new-found physical prowess of Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire?</p>
<p>How many fans from 1995 until now, ask “Hey, wait a minute, how did once slender guys get so big?” How many of us said, this isn’t kosher” and turned off ESPN?</p>
<p>When the Great Pumpkin took up residence on Bond’s burgeoning shoulders, did anyone bother to remember 10th grade biology that taught us the human head doesn’t grow after age 20?</p>
<p>It wasn’t like the sluggers&#8217; physical changes were barely noticeable.</p>
<p>In a 2/9/09 Washington Post podcast, Michael Wilbon recalls a recent Orioles&#8217; locker room encounter where he shared a “hug and a little pound” with a smallish guy, he didn’t instantly recognize.  Turned out to be Sammy the Sham Sosa, who, according to Wilbon, had shrunk so much “he could ride in the third race at Aqueduct.”</p>
<p>Ouch.</p>
<p>At least I quit watching baseball in ’95.  Well, I began to quit.  When I saw the freakish physiques McGwire, Bonds and Sosa had acquired by the ’01 season, I knew something was up.  Athletes don’t shatter 40-year-old records by the proportions these cheaters did year after year without the help of performance enhancers.</p>
<p>We, the fans, knew better.  But few of us said a word.</p>
<p>Which brings the remaining 714-pound gorilla into focus&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>THE STINKING MEDIA</strong></p>
<p>ESPN’s primary goal when it comes to sports is to become Best Friends Forever with the athletes and execs the network (supposedly) objectively covers.</p>
<p>Instead of questioning whether the public was being duped, the SM led by the “Boo-Yah” Bunch reminded us how lucky we were to be “witnessing history.”</p>
<p>If you want a perfect example of just how far the American media has fallen, check out one article, courtesy of Reuters.com:</p>
<p><a target="_blank" title="Reuters" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51914W20090210" target="_blank">http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51914W20090210</a></p>
<p>In this article column, Daniel Trotta argues A-Fraud’s numbers “did not spike much” from 2001 – 2003.  Trotta and his incompetent editors present a microcosm of how the national media fails the public not just in sports, but in every facet of American life&#8230;</p>
<p>Trotta’s statistical analysis, vis-a-vis A-Rod’s home run stats, begins with a warped comparison between the dimensions of Yankee Stadium and the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.</p>
<p>&#8220;But the Texas ballpark where he (Rodriguez) played half his games is one of the most favorable in baseball for hitting home runs. Yankee Stadium, A-Rod&#8217;s home since 2004, is one of the most difficult for a right-handed hitter like Rodriguez.&#8221;</p>
<p>The left-field foul line at Arlington is fourteen feet deeper than that at Yankee Stadium.  The dimensions of Yankee Stadium’s left-center power alley and centerfield are nine and eight feet deeper, respectively, than those in Arlington.  Statistically, the last two variances are insignificant (2-3%).</p>
<p>The Reuter’s editors allowed Trotta to egregiously mislead his readers.</p>
<p>Their work goes downhill from there.</p>
<p>&#8220;The statistical analysis shows LITTLE DISTINCTION between the years (’01 to ’03), he (Rodriguez) says he doped and the rest of his outstanding career with the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and now with the New York Yankees as the game&#8217;s highest-paid player&#8230; In a sign of power, Rodriguez averaged 52 home runs in those three seasons compared to an average of 42 in his 13 full seasons in the major leagues.&#8221;</p>
<p>For the record, 52 vs 42 home runs is much more than a little distinction.</p>
<p>Furthermore, including Rodriguez’s juiced years&#8217; home-run outputs in determining his career stats deliberately skews the analysis in A-Roid’s favor.</p>
<p>The statistically accurate crunching of the player’s numbers should read as follows:</p>
<p>Rodriguez averages 36.8 home runs from 1996-2000. From 2001-2003 (on steroids), he averages 52. His home run output increases by 29-30% during those three admitted doping years. When we average Rodriguez&#8217;s home run output before and after the years he ADMITS to cheating we find his homer numbers are 25% greater when drug-enhanced.</p>
<p>(Remember, if players admit to lying, it’s very reasonable to doubt that they are being truthful when it comes to HOW LONG they’ve been lying.)</p>
<p>Even Mr. Trotta&#8217;s slanted analysis of Rodriguez’s homer output, (52 versus the career average of 42), reflects a 20% increase in output.</p>
<p>Let’s put that in perspective, even if Trotta’s editors didn’t bother to do so:</p>
<p>If Tiger Woods averages 300 yards per drive, a 20% difference gives him an average drive of 360; 25% &#8211; 375; 30% &#8211; 390.  If Roger Federer serves at 120 mph, he jumps to 144, 150 and 156, respectively.</p>
<p>Trotta tries to paint over his homer stat distortion by correctly concluding that A-Roid’s batting average was not significantly affected during the years he says he doped.</p>
<p>True, A-Fraud’s batting average does not spike&#8211;again, assuming he isn’t lying about how many years he doped.  But, interestingly, his slugging percentage averages .615 over that period, significantly higher than his career slugging percentage of .578 (admitted steroid years&#8217; numbers included).</p>
<p>If we look at the other notable cheaters of the era, we discover that during Sosa’s doping years Sammy enjoyed a .306 batting average&#8211;33 points above his career average&#8211;and three .300+ BA seasons (1994’s .300 was the only other year Sosa achieved that milestone).</p>
<p>From 2000 through 2004, Bonds had whopping .341 BA, 43 points above his lifetime average of .298.</p>
<p>Mark McGwire’s 1997 and 1998 batting averages, while higher than his career numbers, were eclipsed only three other years in his career.</p>
<p>Rafael Palmeiro’s average during his juice era fluctuated between .324 and .260.</p>
<p>(The above numbers include the doping years numbers as part of the players lifetime stats.  The more accurate comparison&#8211;drug-enhanced performance minus non-enhanced output&#8211;will reflect a significantly greater disparity.)</p>
<p>A logical explanation for inconsistencies in how steroids affect batting average&#8211;if indeed they do&#8211;probably has more to do with psychology than physiology.  Players who know they are stronger and have maximized their bat speed, might be looking for the pitch they can hit 400 feet, thus eschewing discipline at the plate and resulting in more home runs and a lower average.  Others may opt to wait out the pitcher and go for solid contact&#8211;not “trying” to hit the long ball&#8211;resulting in a more even increase in power output along with a higher average.</p>
<p>Whatever the criteria, the statistical analysis, even as Daniel Trotta applies the numbers to Alex Rodriguez, reflects much more than a &#8220;little distinction&#8221; between A-Shod’s drug-induced performance and the years he claims were drug free.</p>
<p>You can find stats here: <a target="_blank" title="ESPN Stats" href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/alltime/leaders?breakdown=2&amp;type=0&amp;sort=8&amp;year=0" target="_blank">http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/alltime/leaders?breakdown=2&amp;type=0&amp;sort=8&amp;year=0</a></p>
<p>Do your own analysis.</p>
<p>No doubt you will reach the conclusion most people have: the players, Commissioner, and the MLBPA share significant culpability for the Steroid Era.</p>
<p>Please remember to also blame yourself, other die-hard fans, and the Stinking Media.</p>
<p>You know, for the record(s).</p>
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