BCS Beware!

Let’s take a few lines to recount everything good that the Bowl Championship Series has done for college football:

Oh, wait, I almost forgot–the BCS has done nothing worthwhile for college football.

Last year I extrapolated on a Yahoo! Sports article by Dan Wetzel in regards to the possibility of the Boise State Broncos playing in last year’s BCS Championship Game–in other words accomplishing exactly what the Bowl Championship Series was designed to prevent.

You can read the article I wrote here: http://www.deepintosports.com/2009/10/10/ncaa-college-football-boise-state-broncos-bcs-bowl-championship-series/.

The crux of the article was that Boise State ranked higher in the polls earlier in the year than any other non-BCS conference team had been previously. Because of how teams tend to move up and down in the polls, the Broncos had little possibility of being leap-frogged multiple times. In addition, I went on to explore the historical underpinnings of how Boise achieved such a high ranking.

Don’t look now, but Boise State is ranked #5 in the preseason Coaches Poll (#3 in the AP Poll), and fellow BCS Buster from last year, the TCU Horned Frogs, are #7 in the Coaches Poll (#6 in the AP).

Through no fault of their own–the Broncos have openly challenged the Big 6 Conference teams to play them anywhere, any time, a challenge that few of the power conference cowards dare to accept–Boise State has the easiest schedule of any Top Ten teams, facing only two major conference schools… and one of those at home on their (in)famous blue turf.

Looking past Boise State, TCU could also make a strong run at that National Championship Game berth, starting as the Horned Frogs are from that #7 ranking. TCU does face a significantly more difficult road than Boise, however, as the Frogs are destined to battle stronger intra-conference competition playing in a Mountain West Conference than the Broncos will deal with in the WAC. After all, the Mountain West may very well have been better than a couple of the so-called power conferences last year.

Still, with such lofty preseason rankings, that makes two non-BCS conference schools with viable opportunities to play in the National Championship Game–exactly what the Bowl Championship Series was engineered to disallow. We can only hope that one of Boise State or TCU pulls it off.

And perhaps that they both do to play each other for all the marbles.

• October 26, 2009 -- Statement Game (0)
• August 31, 2010 -- BCS Controversies – NCAA College Football (3)
• December 8, 2009 -- Bowl Challenges Set (0)
• November 17, 2009 -- As The Season Dwindles Down… (0)
• October 10, 2009 -- Boise Championship State (BCS) (3)

BCS Controversies by Year

The BCS and controversy go together like maize and blue, scarlet and grey, crimson and cream or burnt orange and white. In most seasons since the system’s inception, there has been heated debate pertaining to which teams should compete in the BCS games, and more importantly, the national championship game. Unfortunately, only so many spots are available -two in the case of national championship game – so as parity continues in college football, more problems will arise akin to the several listed below. Here are the season-by-season BCS controversies from 1998 to 2010.

• 1998-99- K-State’s first exclusion
  

  Heading into the Big 12 Championship Game, No. 2 Kansas State was on a collision course for the inaugural BCS National Championship Game in Tempe, Arizona. Standing in the way of the Wildcats was Texas A&M, which was recovering from a narrow defeat at the hands of rival Texas. The Aggies would upset the Cats in the Big 12 Championship Game, mounting a comeback in regulation that led to Sir Parker’s game winning touchdown in the second overtime. After the defeat, the Wildcats fell to No. 3 in the BCS standings, and without the automatic BCS berth they would’ve earned had they beaten the Aggies, they were relegated to the Alamo Bowl. Two-loss Florida and No. 4 Ohio State received BCS invitations instead. The result of their exclusion was creation of the “Kansas State Rule,” which ensures the third or fourth ranked team in the BCS standings receives an invitation to play in a BCS bowl game.

  Also excluded from the BCS slate of games in ‘98 was undefeated Tulane, led by head coach Tommy Bowden, offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez and quarterback Shaun King. The Green Wave’s weak strength of schedule was cited as the reason it was left out, though it finished ranked No. 7 in the AP and Coaches’ polls.

• 1999-00 – K-State’s second exclusion
  

  A season later, K-State finished ranked two spots below the requirement established by the rule named in its honor, and Michigan received an at-large invitation from the Orange Bowl despite being ranked No. 8 – two spots below the Wildcats.

• 2000-01 – OU vs. who?
  

  By the end of the 2000 season, three one-loss teams appeared deserving of a shot at the national title, though Florida State was selected to face undefeated Oklahoma. The problem was that the Noles’ one loss came to rival Miami, which also had one loss and was No. 2 in the human polls. And which team was responsible for the Canes’ one loss? One-loss Washington. Both teams excluded from the national championship game won their bowl games, while FSU lost to Oklahoma 13-2. In order to make up for the omission, the BCS included a new “quality of win” bonus to the ranking process.

• 2001-02 – Nebraska backs in
  

  After suffering a crushing 62-36 defeat against Colorado, title-hungry Nebraska lost a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, shaking up the BCS standings. But not all was lost for the Huskers. Conference championship week produced a whirlwind of games in which title hopefuls Tennessee and Texas fell to lesser-ranked opponents. As a result, the Huskers were given a spot in the national championship game despite their No. 4 ranking in both human polls and lack of a conference title. The consensus among college football followers at the time was that Oregon, which was ranked No. 2 in both human polls, deserved to play Miami in the Rose Bowl. In the end, the Huskers lost to the Canes 37-14, and the Ducks soundly defeated the Buffaloes 38-16.

• 2002-03 – Rose Bowl East
  

  Miami and Ohio State – both undefeated – were the clear-cut choices for the national championship game in the Fiesta Bowl, depriving the Rose Bowl game of its usual Big 10 champion. The Orange Bowl was next in the pecking order, selecting Iowa. The Rose Bowl then chose Oklahoma with its first pick, allowing for the Orange Bowl to take Pac-10 co-champion USC, becoming the “Rose Bowl East.” The real Rose Bowl’s odd matchup between Pac-10 co-champion Washington State and OU resulted in the game’s lowest attendance in almost 60 years.

• 2003-04 – Three’s company
  

  Oklahoma stayed atop the polls all season long, and its string of blowout victories caused writers, pundits and fans to speculate about its place in college football lore. But the Sooners’ wheels abruptly fell off during the Big 12 Championship Game in which they lost to K-State by four touchdowns. Despite the upset, OU remained No. 1 in the BCS rankings and dropped to No. 3 in the human polls, while one-loss USC became No. 1 in the human polls and No. 3 in the BCS rankings. In the middle was LSU, which was No. 2 in the human polls and BCS rankings. The Tigers earned the BCS championship with a 21-14 victory over the Sooners in the Sugar Bowl, and USC captured the AP title after defeating Michigan 28-14 in the Rose Bowl. The coaches who previously voted USC No. 1 in the coaches’ poll were contractually obligated to change their votes to the BCS winner, and all but three complied.

  Because Oklahoma didn’t win its conference championship, most college football followers believed it didn’t deserve to play for the championship and the true champion wasn’t determined because LSU and USC never faced off. Then-Gateway CEO Ted Waitt attempted to come up with a solution, offering LSU and USC $30 million in scholarship money to play each other in late January, but the NCAA quickly asserted that neither school could accept such an offer.

• 2004-05 – No-losses, no title shot
  

  Until a controversy of even greater magnitude, Auburn will remain the poster child for teams screwed over by the BCS. The Tigers went undefeated in the SEC, becoming the third of four teams to accomplish the feat in the last 20 years. Their strength of schedule was strong, they won all but two games by double-digits, their scoring defense ranked first in the nation and their scoring offense ranked in the top-20. Despite the impressive resume, Auburn was excluded from the national championship game, as USC and Oklahoma were regarded as the top two teams in the country. But the national championship game failed to live up to the hype – USC pounded OU 55-19, leaving college football fans wondering if Auburn would have given the Trojans a better fight.

  In addition to Auburn, Utah finished the season undefeated with a win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl, earning recognition as the original “BCS Buster.” Boise State entered its bowl game undefeated, but the Broncos didn’t receive a BCS invite and lost to Louisville in the Liberty Bowl. More controversy surrounded the Rose Bowl when Texas was selected to compete in the game after jumping California in the polls. The Horns’ rise in the rankings was attributed to the public lobbying of head coach Mack Brown, who wanted his team to earn an at-large bid. Because of the Texas situation, the AP ended its relationship with the BCS.

• 2005-06 – Everything’s rosy
  

  The 2005 season was surprisingly devoid of controversy. The slate of BCS games were entertaining, especially the national championship game at the Rose Bowl between Texas and USC – perhaps the greatest college football game of all-time.

• 2006-07 – OSU vs. who?
  

  Ohio State started the season ranked No. 1 in the country and entered the national championship game in the same position and undefeated after an epic 42-39 victory over rival Michigan. The possibility of a rematch between the Big 10 foes existed, because Michigan was one of five one-loss teams at the end of the season -Florida, Wisconsin, Louisville and Boise State were the others. Louisville and Boise State weren’t seriously considered because of their weak schedules, and Wisconsin was eliminated because it lost to Michigan; Florida was the only other legitimate choice. The Gators were tied with the Wolverines in the computer rankings, giving the voters final say in the matter. Most didn’t want to see a rematch, so Florida was voted second. This time, the voters seemed to make the right decision. The Gators routed the Buckeyes 41-14 and Michigan lost to USC 32-18 in the Rose Bowl.

  Florida received all but one first place vote, which went to undefeated Boise State after it scored one for the little guys with its dramatic upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The victory sparked debate about whether or not the Broncos deserved real consideration for the title. Some college football followers felt one-loss Wisconsin and one-loss Louisville deserved shots as well.

• 2007-08 – Upsets galore
  

  The 2007 season was abounding with upsets, and come early December nothing was clear. The madness began the day after Thanksgiving, when LSU lost to Arkansas in triple-overtime – the Tigers’ second triple-overtime loss of the season as the No. 1-ranked team. Missouri assumed the No. 1 position after defeating No. 4 Kansas, but lost 38-17 to OU in the Big 12 Championship Game a week later. The same day, No. 2 West Virginia fell to lowly Pittsburgh at home in the Backyard Brawl, and LSU defeated Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game.

  Having finished its season two weeks earlier, Ohio State jumped from No. 5 to No. 1 in the BCS standings as the only one-loss team. LSU jumped from No. 7 to No. 2, passing two-loss Georgia and two-loss Virginia Tech. The Bulldogs were denied a shot at the title because they failed to win the Eastern Division of the SEC, and the Hokies failed to earn a shot because they were blown out by LSU 48-7 early in the season. Some college football followers believed one-loss Kansas, two-loss USC and undefeated Hawaii deserved to compete for the title as well, though Hawaii was shellacked by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. But LSU proved its worth by defeating Ohio State 38-24, becoming the first two-loss BCS champion.

• 2008-09 – The tiebreaker
  

  The Big 12 South was a confused mess before the conference’s championship game. At the top of the division were three one-loss teams – Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Texas defeated Oklahoma in a shootout in Dallas early in the season. Texas Tech beat Texas on a last-second touchdown pass from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree. And then Oklahoma routed Texas Tech 65-21, muddying the waters completely. A tiebreaker was to determine which team would represent the division in the Big 12 Championship Game and thus have a shot at the national championship. Because each team had one conference loss, their positions in the BCS standings were used as the next tiebreaker. The Sooners received a better ranking because of their superior strength of schedule, enraging Longhorns fans who watched UT beat OU several weeks earlier. Oklahoma lost to Florida 24-14 in the BCS Championship Game and Texas narrowly defeated Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

  There were two undefeated teams before bowl season that didn’t receive BCS title game consideration – Utah and Boise State. Because the runners-up of the BCS conferences possessed impressive resumes, only one non-BCS school would be invited to play in a BCS game. Utah was selected because of its higher ranking, and the Utes stunned Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl, lending credence to the belief they deserved a shot at the title. Boise State lost to TCU 17-16 in the Poinsettia Bowl. During the offseason, Mountain West Conference commissioner Craig Thompson proposed an eight-team playoff as a solution, but it was rejected by the BCS presidents.

• 2009-10 – No losses, still no title shot
  

  Although it was clear that undefeated Alabama and undefeated Texas would meet in the national championship game, there was still a stink in the air due to the exclusion of the three other undefeated teams from competing for the title – Boise State, TCU and Cincinnati. The main gripe was that Texas benefitted from playing in a weakened Big 12, and the Horns struggled to defeat the more difficult teams on their schedule, including an undermanned Sooners squad and the Huskers in the Big 12 Championship Game. The three other undefeated teams played in what were deemed inferior conferences, but Cincinnati belonged to a BCS conference, the Big East, and TCU defeated Oregon State, Clemson and Virginia in its non-conference schedule.

  More outrage occurred when TCU and Boise State were matched up in the Fiesta Bowl, denying them the chance to compete and prove their worth against traditional BCS powers. The 2010 bowl season concluded with the Broncos defeating the Horned Frogs 17-10, the Gators chomping the Bearcats 51-24 in the Sugar Bowl and the Crimson Tide rolling the Colt McCoy-less Horns 37-21 in the BCS National Championship Game.

Please visit http://www.sportsmanagementdegrees.org/blog/2010/bcs-controversies-by-year/ in its original context.

• October 10, 2009 -- Boise Championship State (BCS) (3)
• November 16, 2008 -- BCS Credibility Shattered (Again) (0)
• September 1, 2010 -- Boise State TCU BCS Polls – NCAA College Football (0)
• December 23, 2009 -- TCU’s Gary Patterson AP Coach of the Year – NCAA College Football (0)
• December 18, 2009 -- 2009 NCAA College Football Bowl Picks (0)

Todd’s Tennis Takes: 2010 US Open Preview

Upon the close of Wimbledon, my first thought was to find out what Nadal’s odds were to win the US Open, as I immediately wanted to bet him. Today, I haven’t a clue who’s going to take this title and wouldn’t bet on anyone, but I do suspect it’s a great opportunity for Murray to finally break through. He crushed everyone in Toronto–including both Nadal and Federer in straight sets–while Nadal underperformed in Cincinnati as well and Federer hasn’t made the semis of the last two Slams.

Here is how I see the tiers of top players breaking down in this year’s Open:

Tier 1 – 3 Guys

Federer – Won in Cincy, his 1st title since this year’s Aussie, but is clearly not in his prime anymore. Far more vulnerable these days, but a 6th title is still a possibility.

Nadal – After looking unbeatable from April through early July and taking two more Slams in the process (he now has 8!!), Nadal has faltered greatly on the fast North American hardcourts, losing to Murray in the semis of Toronto and to Baghdatis in the quarterfinals of Cincy. Has the strongest will on the tour though, so still might take his 1st Open here.

Murray – If he’s ever going to win a Slam, this is yet another golden opportunity after he played below his level in both his prior Slam finals appearances–both bad losses to Fed (2008 US Open, 2010 Aussie). He’s playing more and better offense but needs to keep a high percentage on his 1st serves, because his 2nd is still well below average.

Tier 2 – 4 Guys

Berdych – Like Nadal, Berd Dog had great Slams in Paris and London, making the semis and finals respectively, but has stumbled on the hardcourts. He lost to Baghdatis in the Cincy Round of 16, and to Fed at Toronto, blowing a 3rd set 5-2 lead in the quarterfinals. He’s still my favorite from this Tier and could possibly win the tournament.

Djokovic – Gave Fed a battle in Toronto, losing 7-5 in the 3rd after getting blown off the court early in the semifinal match. In Cincy lost to a rested Roddick in straight sets. Finalist here as a 20-year-old in 2007… would be surprising to see him make the finals again this year.

Roddick – The site of his only Slam, now 7 long years ago (2003), Roddick comes in off the heels of a very mild pneumonia case, but confident after making the semis in Cincy and beating both Soderling and Djokovic in the process.

Soderling – Lost in the round of 16 in both Toronto (Nalbandian), and Cincy… lost to Nadal at both the French and Wimbledon. His big swing is not suited for the fastest hardcourts.

Tier 3 – 3 Guys

A huge drop from Tier 2!

Nalbandian – Came back to the tour in July after a 3-month injury layoff… won the Washington, DC hardcourt event, made quarterfinals in Toronto before Murray destroyed him 6-2, 6-2, and then lost to Djokovic in the Round of 16 at Cincy. Still has great groundstrokes, but can his 28-year-old body hold up over two weeks? Semifinalist in 2003.

Baghdatis – A mercurial talent that runs hot and cold, currently pushing the mercury upwards after his semifinal loss to Fed in Cincy and finals loss to Nalbandian in DC… of course, he also lost to Chardy 1st round of Toronto, reminding us of his constant inconsistency. Could lose early, or make the quaterfinals here – always a wildcard.

Mardy Fish – A great server who has rediscovered his passion for tennis and rededicated himself to the necessary conditioning after a rollercoaster career that has seen his ranking go like this: August 2003, 20th… August 2005, 140th… February 2006 300th… February 2007, 22nd… March 2008, 98th… September 2008, 23rd… March 2010, 100th… and now August 2010 back up to 21st after just making the finals in Cincy. Are you dizzy yet?!!? Made quarterfinals here in 2008, never better than 2nd round in any other Open… didn’t play last year.

Tier 4

Longshots for the quarterfinals, but good bets to win a couple matches… best US Open and year in parenthesis.

Fenando Verdasco (QFs, 2009)
David Ferrer (Semis, 2007)
Ernests Gulbis (4th, 2007)
Richard Gasquet (4th, 2005, 06)
Stanislas Wawrinka (4th, 2007, 08)
Thomaz Bellucci (2nd, 2008, 09)
Lleyton Hewitt (Winner, 2001)
Fernando Gonzalez (QFs, 2002, 09)
Juan Carlos Ferrero (Runner Up, 2003)

Finally, some new, mostly younger names to watch at this year’s Open and in future Slam events… ranking and age in parenthesis:

Alexandr Dolgopolov (43, 21 years old)
Sergey Stakhovsky (47, 24 years old)
Evgueni Korolev (73, 22 years old)
Jeremy Chardy (64, 23 years old)
Yen-Hsun Lu (41, 27 years old – late bloomer, rising big this year)
Denis Istomin (46, 23 years old)
Andrey Golubev (38, 23 years old)
Thiemo de Bakker (53, 21 years old)

• June 29, 2010 -- Todd’s Tennis Takes: Wimbledon Men’s Quarterfinals Set – Tennis (2)
• June 17, 2010 -- Todd’s Tennis Takes: 2010 Wimbledon Preview (0)
• June 4, 2009 -- Fierce And Nerdy: Nadal 31-0 + 1 (4)
• July 1, 2010 -- Todd’s Tennis Takes: Wimbledon Men’s Semifinals Preview – Tennis (0)
• December 29, 2009 -- Top Ten Sports Moments of 2000 – 2009 (11)

NFL 2010 Preview – AFC West

Over a year ago I began a three-part series breaking down what makes an NFL football franchise great.

We looked at management, examining storied teams like the Bears, Cowboys, and Packers in contrast to perennial disappointments like Detroit, Cleveland, and the Native Americans under blunder boy, Daniel Snyder.

We next examined legendary coaches like Halas, Lombardi, Noll, and Shula and how they were able to mold teams into champions.

We never finished the analysis… Perhaps because answer is so obvious.

It all comes down to the players.

Without Hall of Famers Starr, Taylor Nitschke, Gregg, and Hornung, would Lombardi’s name grace the league’s trophy?

Without the 1974 draft that produced four future Canton busts, do the Steelers win any Super Bowls?

For all their famed innovations, do Paul Brown or Bill Walsh attain “genius” status sans players like Jim Brown, Ollie Matson, Joe Montana, or Jerry Rice–to name a scant few?

Of course, we believe the answer is a resounding “NO!”

A study of the AFC West proves the point.

AFC WEST

OAKLAND RAIDERS

2009 Record: 5 – 11

The once venerable Al Davis could lay claim to the titles of great coach, brilliant GM, uncanny talent evaluator, and entrepreneurial maverick. In the last 25 years he has become a sad caricature of his former great self. Davis hasn’t hired an exceptional coach since John Madden, and he was fortunate to coach players like Daryl Lamonica, Dave Caper, Jim Otto, Gene Upshaw, and George Blanda–all drafted or recruited by the velour sweat-suited Davis.

The maverick who sued the league and won the right to move the Raiders all over California, who gave birth to a nation of rabid fans reveling in the tough guy image of men, and who had a commitment to excellence and would do anything to win hasn’t had a winning season in seven years. The brilliant talent evaluator who reached for superb talent he could mold in the Raider image drafted Jamarcus Russel and Darius Heyward Bay.

Need I go on? Okay…

Davis can also take credit for hiring Tom Cable–known more for assaulting men and women than for attacking opponents’ game plans. One of the reasons Cable was hired is because the more promising coaching candidates won’t grant Al Davis an interview.

As long as Davis holds on to power, the Raidas will hold on to mediocrity–or worse.

Prediction: 8 – 8

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

2009 Record: 13 – 3

The Bolts are the signature example of a franchise just good enough to consistently remind their fans of how far they have to go. Familial infighting by the Spanos family has trickled down to almost every aspect of the team. Vincent Jackson bitches about his contract. LaDainian Tomlin rants after being forced out. Shawn Merriman cheats.

They fire Marty Schottenheimer and hire Norv Turner, which is a little like sacking Robin Williams and offering his job to Bozo the Clown.

The only criticism of Marty is his star players made huge mistakes in playoff games, otherwise his resume sparkles–and his players revere him.

The redeeming factor in Chargervile has been over a decade of excellent drafts which produced players like Antonio Gates, LT, Darren Sproules, and superb signal caller, Phillip Rivers. Even though he has the throwing motion of a dart-playing manatee, Rivers is tough, durable and destined to wear the gaudy jewelry of a Super Bowl Champion.

But, not this year.

Prediction: 11 – 5 Division Champs

DENVER BRONCOS

2009 Record: 8 – 8

Having had the privilege of living in the Mile High City for seven years, I can attest to the passion and football savvy of their fans.

I just can’t help hating their football team.

First, they wear orange. Orange is but a few shades of the color wheel away from pink. Second, in 1980 Edgar Kaiser fired Red Miller, who had squeezed all he could from the players he had and replaced the amiable coach with Dan Reeves–who got lucky when, four years later, John Elway fell into his lap like an eager shih tzu.

I don’t begrudge owners the right to hire and fire who they want, but in Denver it has become a tradition to unceremoniously sack coaches who have produced.

Starting in ‘80 with Miller’s sacking–remember, he built the Orange Crush defense–to Reeves’s firing when new owner, Pat Bowlen, thought Shanahan could best show John Elway how to be a champion, to Bowlen’s
2005 firing of Shanahan for wunderkind Josh Daniels, the Broncos have a unique tradition.

Since that regime change Daniels created instant conflict with quarterback Jay Cutler and shipped him off to Da Bears. He started the season at 6-2 only to end it at .500.

Remember the media coronation as the next coaching genius?

Kyle Orton isn’t good enough to make any coach look like a genius and the defense is too undersized to carry the Bronco offense on its shoulders.

Prediction: 8 – 8

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2009 Record: 4 – 12

The Chiefs are very astute at finding statistical positives from a dismal four-win season. Their analysis, embedded in Todd Haley’s bio, can be found here: http://www.kcchiefs.com/team/coaches/todd-haley/eb407b8f-bdc6-4489-bbe5-b85fbf90bb72

You have to give Scott Pioli his due–he helped build the Pats teams that won a few games this decade, but I wonder why he chose Todd Haley as his coach. Haley was best known for sideline scuffles with several of his Arizona Cardinals. He wasn’t seen as an outstanding coaching prospect until Arizona’s fourth quarter rally in Super Bowl XLIII. If you recall, Kurt Warner and company were flummoxed in that game until recent HOFer Dick LeBeau nearly prevented a Steeler victory with the dreaded prevent defense.

The Chiefs could reach .500 if their draft bears early fruit–but they just don’t have the players yet.

Each team in the AFC West could have learned from the most successful franchises–Landry’s Cowboys, Noll’s Steelers, and Shula’s Dolphins–the formula for success.

Hire a young, outstanding coach from the defensive side of the ball, build an organization with people who know how to evaluate talent, and give them time to stock the team.

Then stay the hell out of the way, hope you get one All-Pro and two solid starters in every draft and look forward to buying some gaudy jewelry–if fortune smiles on you.

Next: AFC South

• August 20, 2010 -- NFC East 2010 Preview – NFL Football (1)
• August 13, 2010 -- NFC North 2010 Preview – NFL Football (3)
• August 5, 2010 -- NFC South 2010 Preview – NFL Football (2)
• July 30, 2010 -- NFC West 2010 Preview – NFL Football (1)
• January 30, 2010 -- Pittsburgh Steelers Terrible Towel – NFL Football (2)

Long Live The Whale!

I just returned from a week-long visit to my family in Connecticut. When my sister picked me up at the airport, I was greeted with a familiar team logo on her baseball cap, that of the now-defunct Hartford Whalers.

I of course complimented her on it, having lamented the loss of Connecticut’s only major league sports team when The Whale fled the Constitution State for Carolina thirteen years ago.

I wasn’t the first person. My sister told me her new cap has drawn many comments since she recently started wearing it. Apparently there has been a groundswell of interest in the CT about trying to bring back an NHL franchise as the Whalers–and a resurgence in the sale of Whalers-branded clothing is just one sign.

Former Whalers owner Howard Baldwin has made it his personal mission to prove to the NHL that there’s enough support in Connecticut to support a team. He has already organized one event and is planning a “Whalers Hockey Fest” for February: http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/hartford_cty/hartford-whalers-return-to-ct-for-a-day

But is it worth the effort? As much as I would like to see The Whale back in Hartford, I’m afraid the gesture may be futile.

The benefits of bringing a team back to Hartford are:

• A pre-existing fan base from the previous incarnation of the franchise.
• Hartford is a cold, northern city, the type of town where hockey naturally thrives.
• Connecticut as a state yearns to establish its own identity and rally around a team outside of Boston and New York.

Unfortunately, the negatives are pretty compelling:

• Hartford is within three hours of four–yes, count them, four other NHL franchises (Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils). Even for a state searching for an identity, the area is over-saturated.
• The NHL has exhibited a consistent drive to establish the sport in non-traditional hockey cities over the last twenty years. While the league’s desire to do so is understandable from a long-term growth perspective, the stability and success of the individual franchises in said cities has been less than perfect (Phoenix Coyotes, anyone?).

Does Hartford deserve a team? I think so. When the Whalers became the Hurricanes, a loyal fan base was sold out by an owner (Peter Karmanos) holding the city and state hostage over a new arena deal.

Will it happen? I doubt it.

On my flight back to LA, I noticed a significant amount of Whalers gear in the airport gift shops, on shelves that for many years have been completely dedicated to Connecticut Huskies memorabilia.

Regardless, it’s nice to see the Whalers return in spirit, if not on the ice.

• May 11, 2010 -- Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins – Stanley Cup Playoffs (3)
• April 28, 2010 -- Stanley Cup Playoffs – NHL Hockey (2)
• October 14, 2009 -- Hello, Hockey! (0)
• August 1, 2009 -- Top Ten American Sports Franchises (32)
• June 10, 2009 -- Cup Runneth Over (7)

NFL 2010 Preview – NFC East

NFC EAST

Conference Record: 34 – 30

WASHINTON NATIVE AMERICANS AKA “THE NATES”

2009 Record: 4 – 12

Am I a genius or what? Think of the marketing potential: Washington, D.C., home of the ‘Nats and the Nates!

Okay, okay, it stinks. I won’t contribute to blatant racial insults.

In my column, they will forever be called the Nates.

Don’t get me started.

Murray Dunnosquatis, my in-house soothsayer, and still dehydrated from too much sex and sauna while on Swedish Safari, believes this was the best division in football even before Daniel Snyder removed his cranium from his colon and turned over complete control of football operations to Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan.

Since replacing Jim Zorn with the proven Shanahan the Nates have:

• Drafted Trent Williams, monster OL and Sooner All-American to help protect…
• Donovan McNabb. Rod Woodson hit the nail square when he labeled McNabb the “most under-rated QB of his generation”.
• Shown the prima-donna punk, Albert Haynesworth, who is boss. By the way, it’s Shanny.
• Hired Jim Haslett to install the Steeler version of the 3-4. Listen to the players gush about Haslett–most notably Fat Albert.

Last year the Nates lost to the Falcons by 17 and to the Giants and C’Boys by lopsided scores very late in the season. Otherwise they were in every game. Their defense ranked a respectable 10th overall, despite being gassed for most of the season.

Major Story: The Nates could be the X-Factor that spoils Dallas’s quest for a home-field Super Bowl.

Prediction: 9 – 7

NEW YORK GIANTS

2009 Record: 8 – 8

Injuries destroyed the G-Men’s 2009 play-off hopes and Tom Coughlin’s job is once again on the line. Ironically the Giants drafted a first round defensive linemen again in April–Jason Pierre Paul. Described as a freak of nature, this guy has the speed of Lawrence Taylor and the instincts of another freak, Javon Kearse.

The G-Men are old school. They draft the best player available; they took another defensive linemen in round two, Linval Joseph, a nose tackle out of Arizona.

Although they sent three OL to the Pro Bowl, the Giants were inconsistent running the rock and stopping the run.

They have the horses to do both very well.

Major Story: Giants defensive line sets sack records.

Prediction: 10 – 6

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles had a more productive off-season than any other team, certainly the most productive draft.

You can check it out here: http://assets.philadelphiaeagles.com/assets/team/pdf_2010draftrecap_100424.pdf

I’m a big Andy Reid fan and worry about how big he’s getting, but he and GM Howard Roseman took a game plan into April’s draft–acquiring middle round picks and looking for players whose draft status was undervalued–with the intent on overhauling an already respectable 12th-ranked defense.

Of course, they are loaded on offense, with WR Desean Jackson, RB Lesean McCoy and a solid offensive line. If Kevin Kolb can make cantankerous Eagle fans forget McNabb, it might be the Eagles’ year.

We think it will be.

Major Story: The Eagles rush for more yards than they have in ten years.

Prediction: 10 – 6, Division Winner

DALLAS COWBOYS

2009 Record: 11 – 5

Talk about loaded. The ‘Boys may have the most impressive roster in league history. Here’s their depth chart: http://www.dallascowboys.com/team/team_depthChart.cfm

Cowboy fans watched a team that ranked only behind the Saints on offense and, despite key injuries, had the leagues ninth best defense.

Everyone will be anticipating Dez Bryant’s NFL debut and the WRs could be a nightmare for defenses, but the keys to the Cowboy’s season will be the steady presence of LB Keith Brookings on defense and 2nd-rounder LB Sean Lee and phenomenal CB prospect Akwasi Owusu-Ansah. If they live up to their headlines, the Cowboys can dominate on defense, too.

The major questions for the Cowboys and division rivals Philly and Washington will be answered by their quarterbacks.

Tony Romo has shown he doesn’t have a clue in January.

Major Story: Cowboy defense dominates.

Prediction: 10 – 6, NFC Wildcard

NFC SUMMARY

DIVISION CHAMPS

EAST – Philadelphia Eagles
WEST – San Francisco 49ers
SOUTH – Atlanta Falcons
NORTH – Green Bay Packers

WILD CARDS

New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys

Murray and me see the Pack and the Eagles getting a bye.

Our Wildcard Round has the Holy Men crucifying the Niners in San Fran and Dallas squeaking by the Falcons in Georgia.

Round two? Romo finally exorcises some play-off demons and the Cowboys pull off a stunner, sacking Kevin Kolb five times. Meanwhile, in Green Bay, the Packers cruise by the Birds of Prey.

Which brings us to another classic on the Frozen Tundra. Felix Jones runs for 130 yards, Romo throws two TDs and Dallas goes home for the Super Bowl.

How ’bout them Cowboys!?

NEXT UP – The AFC WEST

• August 26, 2010 -- AFC West 2010 Preview – NFL Football (5)
• August 13, 2010 -- NFC North 2010 Preview – NFL Football (3)
• August 5, 2010 -- NFC South 2010 Preview – NFL Football (2)
• July 30, 2010 -- NFC West 2010 Preview – NFL Football (1)
• July 27, 2010 -- Dez Bryant Rookie Hazing – NFL Football (0)

NFL 2010 Preview – NFC North

NFC NORTH

Conference Record: 32 – 32

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

2009 Record: 12 – 4

Most of the time, I give people the benefit of the doubt, refrain from rushing to judgment, and try to imagine what it would be like to run in someone else’s cleats.

However, when it comes to Brett Favre, I just can’t help myself.

Some jocks behave with such a sense of entitlement wrapped in an enlarged ego, rolled in utter selfishness and fried in the greasy spoon of arrogance, I just can’t help believing some are two-bit bitches who deep down–where only pain pills and ex-boyfriends have gone–are walking, talking, infants, afraid no one will hear their annoying rattle.

The Brett Favre saga–now a three-year-long soap opera–continues in Minnesota. The same dance of dunces, the same tired old lines, the same hackneyed plot, starring a faded icon who just won’t go away.

It’s sad on so many levels.

Does Favre have any idea how psychologically frightening his behavior has become?

It isn’t a stretch to imagine the day Favre leaves football and the ensuing months playing out as follows:

• Favre coaches at a Louisiana high school. After learning his players think he is a narcissistic whack-job, he quits.
• Two weeks later he calls a presser to plead for reinstatement. The Superintendent picks him up at the bus station. Negotiations begin just before training camp.
• Unfortunately, Favre has been revisited by the demons of addiction. He threatens to sue under the ADA if not rehired.
• Negotiations continue throughout the school year.
• Favre is reinstated the day school lets out. He sues the state for not changing the football season to make his summer worthwhile./
• Favre announces he has torn a brain tendon and announces he may never coach again.
• He is found in a hotel room over dosed on Skittles and scotch.
• In an ironic twist, the lead paramedic–president of the football boosters–”accidentally” crosses the paddle wires administering enough voltage to kill a moose. After several attempts, it is clear Brett Favre will not die.

Beyond Favre, the Vikings’ organization has no idea how weak it looks. Read this post from our friends at PFT: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/08/09/glazer-gets-the-real-scoop-behind-favres-waffling/

The juiciest quote from that article addresses Favre’s texts announcing his retirement and how they inspired a “two-pronged” attack by the Vikings organization and players to beg, plead, and cajole Favre into reconsidering. The Vikings offered Favre a “much more lucrative package” to entice him back.

All those tall, gorgeous blondes in Minnesota and not one Viking can offer them a set of testicles to fondle.

Pathetic.

Where is Jared Allen or Adrian Petersen, or, God forbid, Brad Childress saying, “We can’t let one man dictate the fate of our football team. We will win without Brett Favre.”

You’re right–that would take balls none of them have. However, Favre and the Vikes have earned 2010’s first Golden Tampon Award for wholesale organizational pussification.

They are already heavy favorites for the Golden Tampon of the Year Award.

The Vikings have talent but lack leadership. We don’t think they will be the playoff lock most pundits think.

Prediction: 10 – 6

DETROIT LIONS

2009 Record: 2 – 14

There is hope in Detroit. The auto industry has gotten off the canvas and Matthew Stafford is the Lions quarterback.

Indulge me and view this little gem one more time and you will see that Stafford has what the division rival Vikings wish they had: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugA8G4rv_8g&feature=related

Give Jim Schwarz and his staff two more years. In the meantime, they’ll surprise a lot of people this year.

Prediction: 7 – 9

CHICAGO BEARS

2009 Record: 7 – 9

In six seasons, Lovie Smith has won only eight more games than he’s lost. He has never put a consistent unit on the field. His trade for Jay Cutler was supposed to be a lifesaver, but the former Bronco quarterback under-performed, as did an injury-plagued and aging defense.

We think Smith’s record accurately reflects his coaching acumen. If the Bears keep him after another less than mediocre year, they get what they deserve.

Prediction: 7-9

GREEN BAY PACKERS

2009 Record: 11 – 5

With the league’s second best defense and sixth best offense, the Packers are favorites to play in the NFC Championship Game. Aaron Rodgers has come into his own and the offense will perform as advertised.

Defense is another matter. Josh Bell’s ankle injury has landed him on Injured Reserve and the Packer secondary could be a bigger problem than it was last year. The unit led then league with 30 interceptions, but gave up the fourth most touchdown passes (29).

Prediction: 11 – 5, Division Winner

Next up: The NFC East

• August 26, 2010 -- AFC West 2010 Preview – NFL Football (5)
• August 20, 2010 -- NFC East 2010 Preview – NFL Football (1)
• August 5, 2010 -- NFC South 2010 Preview – NFL Football (2)
• July 30, 2010 -- NFC West 2010 Preview – NFL Football (1)
• May 8, 2010 -- Sports Bright: Bill Noethlich Minnesota Vikings – NFL (0)

Todd’s Tennis Takes: The Decline of American Tennis

For the first time since the current format of the ATP tennis rankings, there are no Americans in the men’s Top 10. This was probably inevitable, as the decline of American tennis domination has been in full swing for well over a decade now. From 1973 to 1999, there were an average of 3.74 Americans in the year end Top 10… but since 2000, there have never been more than 2 Top 10 Americans at the end of the year. Also since 2000, only four different Americans have finished in the Top 10: Pete Sampras (2000 – 2001), Andre Agassi (2000 – 2005), Andy Roddick (2002 – 2009), and James Blake (2006, 2008). Quite a fall from the heyday of American tennis, 1977 through 1981, when there were never less than 5 Americans in the year end Top 10. Some other interesting facts highlighting the decline of American domination are below:

There are currently just 4 Americans in the Top 50, and just 6 in the Top 100. Here’s the trend of those numbers for the last 25 years:

In 1990, 9 of the Top 25 were Americans, and in 1985, 10 of the Top 25 were from the USA. Today, there are just 3 Top 25 Americans–Roddick, John ‘Marathon Man’ Isner, and Sam Querry. It is Spain that now dominates, as this country of just 46 million people has 7 players in the Top 25, 9 in the Top 50, and 13 in the Top 100 today. In 1985, they had zero Top 25 guys, one Top 50 player, and just three in the Top 100. And how is the American pipeline, you ask? Not too impressive. Here is a thorough look at the 14 Americans ranked between 100 and 250 in the world:

• #104 – Donald Young, 21 years old – Great American hope for awhile in the middle of this decade… won the Aussie Open junior title at age 15, the youngest ever, and was also the #1 junior in the world after that. Two years later he won the Wimbledon junior title at age 17, but has struggled to find any success in ATP level events, posting a 12 – 40 career record. Highest ranking ever was 73 in April 2008. Speedy but has very little power… not likely to break into Top 25, but could still one day become steady Top 50 talent.
• #108 – James Blake, 30 years old – Former Top 10 talent is fading fast… will never get back there.
• #116 – Ryan Sweeting, 23 years old – Currently at his career high ranking, looking like a journeyman at best… maybe Top 50 one day, but possibly just a Challenger level player (tennis’s minor leagues).
• #118 – Robby Ginepri, 27 years old – Former Top 20 talent, will likely never get back there.
• #148 – Kevin Kim, 32 years old – Career journeyman, Challenger level guy.
• #151 – Rajeev Ram, 26 years old – Career journeyman, Challenger level guy.
• #153 – Jesse Levine, 22 years old – Barely got inside the Top 100 two years ago, likely a career journeyman at best… doubtful Top 50.
• #186 – Jesse Witten, 27 years old – Career journeyman, Challenger level guy.
• #206 – Tim Smycek, 22 years old – Is rising fast this year, had some upsets… might make Top 100, maybe even Top 50 one day, but likely not much more.
• #221 – Lester Cook, 26 years old – Career Challenger level guy.
• #227 – Ryan Harrison, 18 years old – Only played 13 ATP level matches so far, has a 4-9 record. Best juniors ranking was #7, never made it beyond the semis of a junior Slam event. Supposedly his 16-year-old brother Christian is someone to watch, as Ryan says he’s the best 16-year-old in the world… we’ll see; I went to the junior rankings and couldn’t find him in the Top 30 for his age group. Maybe they both make Top 50 one day.
• #236 – Alex Kuznetsov, 23 years old – So far just a Challenger level journeyman, doubtful he’s ever Top 100, #158 is his career high ranking.
• #238 – Michael Yani, 29 years old – Career journeyman, Challenger level guy.
• #247 – Alex Bogomolov, 27 years old – Career journeyman, Challenger level guy.

So while Eastern Europe and South America have greatly increased their impact on the ATP tour in the last 15 to 20 years, that still doesn’t explain why and how American tennis has faded so hard. Of these 14 guys above, there are probably just two that ever have a chance to be seeded (Top 32) at a Slam in the future, Young and Harrison, and neither of them are great bets to accomplish that feat. As far as getting an American back into the Top 10… well Roddick likely will, but he turns 28 later this month, has been slipping lately, and might have trouble ever making a Slam semi again. The big server Querry is a nice young talent (22 years old), ranked #21, and recently defeated Andy Murray in the finals of the Los Angeles event two weeks ago. But I’m not sure he’s a good enough mover to make the Top 10 and stay there for a meaningful length of time, and same goes for Isner – big serve, hard groundstrokes, but the 6′9″ giant is predictably slow afoot compared to his Top 30 peers. I don’t think he gets there (he’s currently #19), but we’ll see.

So… final prognosis? It’s a pretty bleak outlook right now for American tennis, and to change that, maybe we need to look long and hard at the Spanish youth programs, training methods, and tennis academies.

• August 28, 2010 -- Todd’s Tennis Takes: 2010 US Open Men’s Preview (1)
• June 17, 2010 -- Todd’s Tennis Takes: 2010 Wimbledon Preview (0)

The Decision, Part Deux

Anthony Tolliver may be my new favorite NBA player.

If you haven’t already seen his YouTube video “The Decision, Part Deux”, check it out here:

The farce that was “The Decision” was ripe for spoofing, not that the ego that is LeBron James would give a rat’s ass about a video that some Joe Schmo might throw up on YouTube. However, to be openly mocked by one of his peers in the NBA, that has got to irk LeBron at least a little.

It may not be the funniest YouTube video ever, but the very fact that Anthony Tolliver made it does add a certain extra level of mirth. Oh, and that Tolliver’s decision was the Minnesota Timberwolves–not exactly a championship caliber franchise.

• May 25, 2009 -- NBA Conference Finals Dogfights (0)

Salary Cap End Around

Arbiter Richard Bloch today upheld the NHL’s voiding of Ilya Kovalchuk’s 17-year, $102 million deal with the New Jersey Devils for circumventing the League’s salary cap

New Jersey fans are crying foul, claiming an anti-Devils bias. Other critics are lambasting the oft-maligned Gary Bettman for his apparent inconsistency in denying the Kovalchuk deal while allowing similar contracts that have exploited the same loophole in the Collective Bargaining Agreement to run an end-around the salary cap (such as those with Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa).

Now, as a general rule, I am not one to defend Bettman–I am not enthralled with any of the commissioners of the Big Four sports–but this time the NHL played its cards perfectly.

The NHLPA, which filed the grievance on behalf of Kovalchuk, argued that the since other such contracts had passed muster, precedent should allow the Kovalchuk deal similar approval. Additionally, no matter how poorly worded the CBA was, the contract was within the letter of the CBA, if not the intent.

But the frequently applied speeding ticket analogy directly applies to this situation. Take a 55 mile-per-hour highway. Just because a cop tickets one driver going 85 mph in that zone but decides not to ticket another driver only going 60 doesn’t mean the 60-mph driver is not breaking the law. On top of which, the 60-mph driver may have a plausible argument that they actually thought they were driving 55; the 85-mph driver, not so much (sorry, Sammy Hagar).

Luongo and Hossa’s deals, while widely regarded as being designed to circumvent the cap, were at least plausible. Although I have seen many arguments claiming is it really that much more believable that Hossa and Luongo will still be playing at 42 and 43, respectively, than Kovalchuk at 44, the real clincher was the money being paid out for the final years of the contracts. Luongo and Hossa’s final years cash out at $1 million; Kovalchuk a mere $550,000.

How plausible is it that Kovalchuk would play out the last few years of his contract at a salary quite likely below the league minimums at that time? Ha! If you believe that, I have a bridge I want to sell you.

Instead of challenging one of these earlier retirements contracts that, no how matter improbable, were at least conceivable of being played out, the NHL wisely waited for the slam dunk case, the deal that was so ludicrous that an arbiter could not help but rule in the League’s favor. If Bettman had tried to take on Luongo’s, Hossa’s or any one of a number of other contracts, he most likely would have lost.

Instead, by having waited to battle the near guaranteed win, the NHL has set a precedent upon which to challenge future salary cap-avoiding retirement contacts… at least until the loophole in the CBA can be sealed.

A rare right move by Bettman

• December 5, 2008 -- Avery’s Just Desserts Are Sloppy Seconds (1)