Super Bowl LI – NFL FootballSunday, February 5, 2017 13:30
Picks & analysis for Super Bowl LI.
Super Bowl LI
CHAMPIONSIP WEEK: 1 – 1 = .500
Overall Tally: 132 – 123 – 11 = .518
Overall Playoff: 6 – 4
Specials 1 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 34 – 40 – 3 = .449
Totals Picks: 3 – 1 Cumulative Totals = 62 – 47 – 1 = .562
GAME OF THE WEEK 13 – 7
LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 10 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 8 – 10 – 1
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 7 – 13
GAME OF THE WEEK 11 – 7
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (16-2) @ ATLANTA FALCONS (13-5) – 3 59 [U]
Thing about Super Bowls is you never know what you’re gonna get—except over analysis to the point of absurdity.
We won’t bore you pointing out the Patriots have the most experience, the better quarterback, the superior coach, a more effective defense in yards—and the league’s stingiest defense when it comes to scoring.
Now that you’re bored, let me remind you a library of stolen signals makes an already formidable team that much better.
I’ll never let the New England faithful forget the cheating that elevated the new century Patriots to their dynastic status.
And, I won’t allow haters like me to deny the rest of the story…
LEAVE NO TURNOVER UNSTONED
Any credible analysis of pro football acknowledges the most important statistic in the game is turnovers. No matter any other stat, the team that prevails in turnover tally wins around 75% of their games
Turnovers—giveaways, takeaways, and the ratio therein …
In those three categories…
- Who gives the ball away the least…
- Who takes it away the most…
- Who accumulates the better ratio in a game, over a seasons or a decade…
There is only one team has dominated that statistical nexus…
Chew on this: in none of those three categories have the Patriots, during their Super Bowl winning seasons, ranked lower than 12th…3 top tens… 5 top fives.
That’s’ why I’m convinced in 2006 Belichick and Brady wanted to control possession of the game footballs; the same reason they hired the Deflator.
Oh, and all you Pats’ fans who lament my pummeling an already deceased palomino, I remind you Coach Belichick wrote the foreword to the book, The Physics of Football by Timothy Gay. Only an apologist would deny BB’s obsession with the game and how to control its most important aspect.
At least, I give the guy kudos for the results his obsession has rendered.
I’m quite sure Coach Hoodie, on the cusp of winning his unprecedented fifth Lombardi Trophy, knows the Turnover Dynamic doesn’t end with the aforementioned three crucial categories.
It is one thing to consistently protect the ball and take it away from your opponent, but you can have all the turnovers in the world—they mean nothing if you don’t score after you get one or prevent your opponent from scoring once such a gift is received.
There is a more important stat, tabulated only since 2009:
Team Net Turnover Points Statistics…
In that eight-year span New England finished out of the Top Ten or Top Five exactly once—number one 3 times.
The metric is explained here: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-net-turnover-points-statistics/2016/
Now we have further proof why, despite the sanctions levied against him for orchestrating Spy-gate, and the NFL’s too quick dismissal of his role in Deflate-gate, Bill Belichick wins–consistently, boringly, and 74% of the time his teams take the field.
BB didn’t care a lick how far off the grid the Patriots turnover stats would become, but he was smart enough to insulate himself from that probable outcome. That’s why he suggested Brady recruit Peyton Manning to petition the NFL for team control of game footballs’ condition.
Don’t forget, after the Deflate-gate story broke, the NFL made sure to exonerate Belichick as quickly and forcefully as possible.
The sad fact for Patriot detractors who know Belichick willfully cheated the game, the league ain’t going to take New England’s Lombardis back or call for anybody’s rings to be returned.
All we can do is analyze the game thinking each team starts from the same yard line—even if the facts paint a different picture.
On that basis, the Birds of Prey should consider themselves doomed to the fate of their Thanksgiving Day brethren.
Like the Steelers last week, the Falcons have more than enough weapons to outscore New England. Like the Steelers, Atlanta brings an upstart defense.
Unlike the Steelers, who started two rookies in a pathetic display of the hackneyed “creak, don’t crack” zone defense, the Falcons defense has four rookie starters.
Why do you think Tom Brady has had that annoying grin on his face the last two weeks?
BEEN THERE DONE THAT
We must point out New England also has more big game experience.
Surprisingly, most of the punditry doesn’t think that factoid is a big deal.
I think it’s huge.
Remember your first junior high dance. The music was too loud; the opposite sex completely freaked you out. The punch was too sweet, and the chaperones daggered any hope of even a G-Rated fantasy tiptoeing over to your reality.
By the time you were a senior, you knew how to make the punch taste better, to warn the chaperones of the horrible fight outside—so you could climb the catwalks to smoke a joint—and what song came just before the slow dances.
Your junior year at college, you were raping watermelons with Smirnoff bottles, begging your girlfriend for that threesome with her hot Asian friend, and paying off the local Metal Band to announce you wrote the lyrics to their signature song—for that “special someone.”
Folks, the New England Patriots are the post-doctoral fellows, hosting the Napa wine tasting brunch before the orgy with Gillette’s Board of Directors begins—followed by the candlelight vigil for those afflicted with obscene wealth.
The Falcons are in seventh grade making sure their corduroys are zipped and squeezing the pus out of that stubborn blackhead populating the geometric center of their forehead.
AND…SO WHAT AGAIN
Yet, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Falcs shocked the galaxy and jumped out to a 14, hell, even 21-point lead. That’s precisely why New England will win in a walk.
The Pats have seen every storm the Gods have to offer. They can overcome anything.
If New England starts fast, Atlanta might fold their tent faster than Barnum and Bailey recently did.
The worst thing that could happen for the Birds of Prey was Matt Ryan winning the MVP. Will Matty Ice experience a letdown?
Missing out on another MVP just might piss Brady off more than he already is for losing four game checks via the Deflate-gate fiasco.
We know how horribly he performs when he’s angry.
The best thing—the saving grace for Atlanta—might be head coach, and former ‘Hawks DC, Dan Quinn, whose Legion of Boom played well enough to beat the Pats in SB XLIX—before the worst play call in the history of organized football.
Even if Quinn turns out to be Mighty, and Matt Ryan MVP worthy—there is too much history, legacy, and Brady for the Falcons to overcome.
The final nail:
Belichick may be a cheater, but he is also a sleight-of hand master. He loves all the hoopla about Brady GOAT status and the top five offenses Josh McDaniels and Brady have fielded. Few notice, that in NE’s four Super Bowl appearances, with the exception of their second loss to Big Blue in 2011, they’ve played some excellent defense.
This year the Pats rank first in scoring and 8th in overall defense.
Atlanta? 27th and 25th, respectively—
“Good Night, Felicia!”
We’re taking New England in a rout –and the Under.
Patriots 38 Falcons 20
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