NFL 2016 Week 17 Game Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, January 1, 2017 9:30
Picks & analysis for 2016 NFL Week 16.
NFL Week 17
WEEK 16: 5 – 10 – 1 = .333
Overall Tally: 119 – 110 – 11 = .533
Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 25 – 36 – 3 = .410
Totals Picks: 3 – 3 Cumulative Totals = 51 – 38 – 1 = .573
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 7
LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 9 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 7 – 7 – 1
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 5 – 10
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 7
GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-6) @ DETROIT LIONS (9-6) -3 49 [O]
The NFC North title is on the line in the warm, if not friendly, confines of Motown’s Ford Field. Unfortunately, for the Detroit faithful, the Lions den has been a lot friendlier to Aaron Rodgers and the Meat Men than the Big Cats who call it home.
Even though Matthew Stafford deserves to be in the MVP conversation—he’s authored eight 4th quarter comebacks this year—the Georgia product still doesn’t deserve mention in the same breath as Aaron Rodgers.
Here’s the tale of Rodger’s tape in Detroit:
- 10 career games, 9-1 record…
- Over 2550 yards…
- 19 touchdowns vs. 5 interceptions…
- Rating over 100.00 in eight of those games…
- 110+ career rating vs. Lions…
Six weeks ago Rodgers predicted his team would run the table. Echoes of 2014 when, after a 1-2 start, the guy told shuddering cheese heads to relax. The former Cal standout walks the razors edge between cocky and confident like no other player in the NFL.
Couple years ago, I was dead wrong about Jim Caldwell’s coaching talent. His Lions have the poorest offensive line in the game; last in rushing, giving up 35 sacks in 2016—but they are in every game and are one of those teams who could catch fire.
Don’t bet on it.
Until Stafford shows me he can finally beat Rodger’s Packers on the big stage, overcome the inconsistency caused by a busted middle finger on his throwing hand, reinvent a hobbled secondary, and a non-existent running game, I’m laying the obligatory home team field goal and betting the Pack will Cover and win the Over.
Packers 33 Lions 27
LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 9 – 2
KANSAS CITY CHIEF(11- 4) @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5 -12) -5 46 [U]
Most NFL caliber quarterbacks are as confident/cocky as Aaron Rodgers.
They believe they can make every throw, overcome any deficit, carry any team on their shoulders, and always come up big in the clutch. More often than not, the great ones do.
Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers and Big Ben certainly have since they were drafted first, fourth and 11th, respectively in 2004.
You might be surprised who holds the career statistical edge in the only draft class in 24 years that could find three members someday inducted into the HOF.
The only other comparable draft class was 1983’s triumvirate of Elway, Kelly, and Marino…
Sadly, Rivers might end up without a ring, like Dan Marino. His legion of fans will be left to wonder, ‘what could have been’…
Imagine Rivers—he currently is more productive and efficient than Big Ben and Eli—throwing to a Hines Ward, Antonio Brown, Victor Cruz, or OBJ. The only sure receiver Rivers could count on during the last 12 years was HOFer in waiting, Antonio Gates.
What if he could have relied on a typical top 5-10 Steelers defense for much of his career, or a Giants culture capable of facilitating the march to a championship with timely team effort?
Tomorrow, Rivers will face the number one overall pick of the 2005 NFL draft, KC’s Alex Smith, still looking to rid himself of the dreaded label of “game manager” and trying to make people stop wondering why he was chosen 23 slots before Aaron Rodgers.
Timing is one of life’s uncontrollable variables. Just because God blesses you with elite athletic ability, doesn’t mean you are impervious to a finger bang of fate or just plain dumb luck.
Any team playing under that dark pall of history, knowing, they’ll miss yet another post season with a great QB closing in on retirement has too much psychic rubbish to get up for an opponent who’s won 42 games in four years and needs a victory for a potential bye.
Rivers will show up, he always does. The Bolts will play hard for Mike McCoy; they always have, though it might be his final game.
It won’t be Andy Reid’s last game; it could be his first of his second Super Bowl run.
We’re taking the Arrowheads and the Under.
Chiefs 23 Chargers 17
UPSET SPECIAL 6 – 7 – 1
BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-7) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-9-1) -2.5 41.5 [O]
Week 17 is the worst week of the year for the serious bettor. My analysis on the KC/SD game is a case in point. Maybe, the locker room mood is the polar opposite of what I believe. My opinion is never pulled out of my ear like a magician’s quarter. I based it on quotes from players, Rivers, coach Mike McCoy and aware of the obvious truth—for too long, the Bolts have been disconnected from their fans.
Still, I could be stone cold wrong.
In fact, given Week 17’s unique wagering dynamics and the mercurial nature of professional competitors, I probably wouldn‘t go near any of these games, save for the Monday Nighter –it’s the only game with an equal stake for both teams.
I’m picking the Crows to thrash the Bengals because both clubs are playing for nothing but pride—and Cincy doesn’t possess that quality. Baltimore has proven whatever their shortcomings, they play the game with pride and ferocity…
The Bengals on the other and disrespected the Terrible Towel, blatantly attempt to severely injure people, have very little discipline, and act like prepubescent little bitches when things don’t go their way.
I hope John Harbaugh takes his foot off the gas and doesn’t embarrass the Striped Kitties too much, thereby prompting Mike Brown to scuttle Marvin Lewis—who encourages his team of thugs to injure people.
I hope Marvin coaches the Bengals for the next two decades.
But that’s just me being a Steelers fan—
Take the Over and the points.
Ravens 33 Bengals 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 4 – 10
DALLAS COWBOYS (13-2) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-8) -4 43.5 [U]
We like this game because the visiting team in this series has done exceptionally well ATS. Either Mark Sanchez or Tony Romo will be under center for the ‘Pokes and each knows they are essentially auditioning for the second spot on the Dallas depth chart, or for prospective trade partners after the season.
Jason Garrett sounds concerned about how he’ll handle the Week 17 conundrum for teams with a bye. His statements lead us to believe he’ll let his guys play until the game is in hand
Doug Pederson, Philly’s head man, doesn’t want to be Chip Kellyed, so I’m looking for a more spirited contest between hated division rivals, both with something to prove.
This puppy might be a surprisingly well-fought contest. The Over makes sense here.
Cowboys 27 Eagles 23
Per usual, here are my picks in bold italics:
NFL Lines For Week 17 – 1/1, 2017
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Tennessee||-3||Houston||40|
|1/1 1:00 ET||Buffalo||-3.5||At NY Jets||42|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Cincinnati US||-2.5 [O]||Baltimore||41.5|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-4.5||Jacksonville||47|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia O/U||-4||Dallas||43.5|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Minnesota||-5||Chicago||41|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-4.5||Carolina||46.5|
|1/1 1:00 ET||At Pittsburgh||-6||Cleveland||44|
|1/1 1:00 ET||New England||-9.5||At Miami||44.5|
|1/1 4:25 ET||At Washington||-8||NY Giants||44|
|1/1 4:25 ET||Arizona||-6||At Los Angeles||40.5|
|1/1 4:25 ET||At Atlanta||-6.5||New Orleans||56|
|1/1 4:25 ET||Kansas City LW||-4.5 [U]||At San Diego||44.5|
|1/1 4:25 ET||Seattle||-10||At San Fran||43|
|1/1 4:25 ET||At Denver||-1.5||Oakland||40.5|
|1/1 8:25 ET||Green Bay GW||-3 [O]||At Detroit||49|
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