NFL 2016 Week 12 Game Picks & Analysis – FootballThursday, November 24, 2016 7:00
Picks & analysis for 2016 NFL Week 12.
NFL Week 12
WEEK 11: 10 – 4 = .714
Overall Tally: 82 – 72 – 7 = .532
Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 15 – 26 – 3 = .366
Totals Picks: 2 – 4 Cumulative Totals = 41 – 28 = .594
GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 5
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 7 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 5 – 1
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 9
METHODOLOGY & A CORRECTION…
I want to, once again, give you a little insight to how I arrive at the Point Spreads and Total or Over/Under Numbers you see at the end of my bi-weekly NFL posts.
Early lines are posted on a given week’s games a 7-8 days, or more before those games take place. For example, the early line on the Pittsburgh/Indy game was Colts +6. I booked that line the day it came out. When I say “booked” that means, after pasting the Weekly Lines from here: http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml
…I reformat my pick, (Pittsburgh), with bold italics. The day or two after I set that price, Andrew Luck’s status for the game against the Steelers changed after his placement into the NFL’ concussion protocol. The line—to assure an equal amount of bets are placed on both teams—had moved to 8 or 9.
By game time, it may get up to 10 once Vegas gets that Big Ben performs well in prime time and Luck’s backup, Scott Tolzien, hasn’t thrown a pass since 2013 more bettors will bet on Pittsburgh forcing the gangsters’ to give Indy more room.
One of the best ways to stay on top of NFL handicapping is knowing when to bet.
If I was leaning toward the Colts in that game, of course I would have taken the bigger line after monitoring the Spread throughout the week. I would, of course correct the number in my weekly picks…
IF, I don’t forget…
Last week was a perfect example. New England opened early as a 13.5 favorite and I booked the Underdog 49ers on Tuesday. The 49ers are bad, but they’re not Cleveland bad and I would have stayed with them at 13 and been tempted to switch to the Pats at any spread below that.
Come Saturday morning the money started rushing in for the Niners and the line dropped to 11 or 10.5 at some sites. I immediately saw an opportunity and switched my pick—but I forgot to correct the spread in my post.
I played that baby right, and I’m not taking a push when I clearly didn’t bet the Pats -13.
GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 5
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-3) @ DENVER BRONCOS (7-3) -3.5 39.5 [U]
The victor of this little tussle moves to the drivers seat in the AFC Wildcard race—and keeps nipping at the heals of the surging Raiders for the division title.
With Aqib Talib out of the great Broncos’ defensive backfield and Chiefs WR, Jeremy Maclin, questionable with a groin pull, both squads will be hobbled. Aqib’s absence puts more pressure on the Broncos defense and Maclin’s sore groin gives the already offensively challenged Chiefs another problem to solve.
Surprisingly, and I double-checked, The Wild Horses are only a 50-50 proposition as a home favorite since 2013. Having Trevor Simien as their starting quarterback will not mitigate that trend.
These divisional games are often tight, lower scoring affairs—especially when the QBs are average at best. Simien is a little below average right now and Alex Smith is at least that far above it…
The Chiefs win outright, 20-17…The Under is a premium play in this one…
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 7 – 2
CINCINNATI BENGALS(3-6-1) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-5) -4.5 (41) [U]
You can say Marvin Lewis was a hard luck coach…You can say his players loved him…You can say he was a brilliant football man—I’ll just say, “So long.”…
I know, I know, I’m ripping off the ‘80s band ’Firefall’ but Mike Brown’s love affair with his head coach has to be coming to a head doesn’t it?
I keep hearing rumbles from the Jungle that Lewis has a year left on his contract and Brown doesn’t like to pay people no longer in his employ, but…
A nice window opened up for the Bengals 4-5 years ago. They had an infusion of young talent on both sides of the ball, including offensive super talents like A.J. Greene, Tyler Eifert, Giovanni Bernard, Andrew Whitworth, Kevin Zeitler, and Andy Dalton. On defense George Iloka, Vontaze Burfict, Ray Maualuga, and Dre Kirkpatrick, among many more.
Any coach would love to have that nucleus to smash through the window to a Super Bowl—or two.
Whether it has been lack of discipline, or Lewis believing he could convert the bad boys he recruited or drafted into well-behaved football players; bad luck, awful timing, or the wrath of an unjust God—Marin Lewis hasn’t won a playoff game in seven tries.
Last week, the Cowboys OL smashed them some Raven’s beak into birdshit and Zeke Elliot pounded it into the turf…just like I said they would. But, John Harbaugh, GM, Ozzie Newsome, and the talent they’ve acquired will react like professionals and spank the Striped Cats into the jungle of non-playoff teams.
The Ravens—even after a down year like 2015—always come back and find a way to be on the floor when the real dancing begins in January.
I’m a Steelers fan, I hope I’m wrong, but look for the Magpies to feast off the remains of Marvin Lewis and his band of under achievers—Under the Number.
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 3
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-6) @ HOUSTON TEXANS (6-4 ) 44 [U]
I’m reading up on trends and how to interpret them when handicapping NFL games and it is amazing the people who study this for a living.
In good fun, I’ve referred to the Vegas odds makers as Wise Guys, Gangsters, and Goons.
In reality, some of these people are mathematical geniuses.
I got to Part Four of the six-part lesson, and the side of my brain responsible for math warned, “Uh, you need to stop reading this now, or I swear, I’ll start oozing out of your ear.”
I’ll admit, I am going to keep on reading the stuff, because I do want to understand the science behind the art. Until then, I’ll hit up a couple web sites, crunch some numbers—but in the end, follow my gut.
My gut usually considers the following:
- Who has the “better” quarterback
- The more talented team in the trenches
- The Head Coach’s record in similar contexts
- The mental state of the teams in question…
BiIl O’Brien gets the nod as the better coach, BUT I’m going against his .588 win percentage after a loss. Phillip Rivers is the reason and—Brock Osweiler just isn’t that good. The refs gave the Texans just as much trouble as Derek Carr and his Raiders…
Monday Night at meg-altitude, getting jobbed by the officials…Osweiler’s flagging confidence…O’Brien’s whining about the refs—justified or not—has to take a toll.
The Shit Kickers lead a weak division. When they have faced high-end competition—Denver, the Pats, and Oakland—they’ve wilted.
Granted, the Bolts are not elite, but they have beaten the Broncos and Atlanta and they haven’t lost a game by more than eight points.
Rivers has more weapons. He’ll need them against a good Houston defense… This one should be as close as the experts think. We’ll take the Bolts to cover in a nail biter—Under the Chalk.
Chargers 23 Texans 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 9
WASHINGTON NATIVE AMERICANS (6-3-1) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (9-1)
We’re riding with the Cowboys, folks. Their offensive line pounds on opponents for the first half—then smashes holes wide open for the very physical Zeke Elliot to blow close games up—ask the Steelers and Ravens.
However, I’m going against one of my own cardinal rules in picking the Cowboys: When I first saw the line, it seemed a bit much and I confidently picked the Nates to Cover clearly, my first choice.
Maybe I should rethink this one, again…
The Numbers haven’t moved at all, but I switched to the favorite home team, not only for their powerful running game, but if you listen to the Cowboys you hear the sound of a team that believes 2016 is their year. It’s kind of hard not to share that feeling
I’m still wavering. I hate the picks that can go either way.
In Week Two, these teams accounted for more than 800+ yards of offense and a fourth quarter Red Zone pick by Dallas ended up being the difference in the four-point Cowboys victory.
By the way, the Nates held Ezekiel Elliot to 83 rushing yards.
The fence post is starting hurt my ass…
Okay, let split this baby down the middle—Washington will cover; Dallas wins on a last second field goal by Dan Bailey…
Dallas 37 Washington 34
Per usual, here are my picks in bold italics:
NFL Lines For Week 11 11/17 – 11/21, 2016
NFL Lines For Week 1211/24 – 11/28, 2016
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/24 12:30 ET||At Detroit||-2.5||Minnesota||43|
|11/24 4:30 ET||At Dallas O/U||-7||Washington||51|
|11/24 8:30 ET||Pittsburgh||-6||At Indianapolis||47.5|
|11/27 1:00 ET||At Houston [U]||-1.5 US||San Diego||47|
|11/27 1:00 ET||Tennessee||-3||At Chicago||43.5|
|11/27 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-7||Jacksonville||45.5|
|11/27 1:00 ET||At Baltimore [LW]||-4.5 [O]||Cincinnati||41|
|11/27 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-4.5||Arizona||50.5|
|11/27 1:00 ET||At Miami||-7.5||San Francisco||45.5|
|11/27 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-7||Los Angeles||45.5|
|11/27 1:00 ET||NY Giants||-7||At Cleveland||44.5|
|11/27 4:05 ET||Seattle||-5.5||At Tampa Bay||45|
|11/27 4:25 ET||At Oakland||-4||Carolina||48|
|11/27 8:30 ET||At Denver GW||-3.5 [U]||Kansas City||39.5|
|11/27 4:25 ET||New England||-8 [O]||At NY Jets||47|
Monday Night Football Line
|11/28 8:30 ET||At Philadelphia||-3.5 [O]||Green Bay||47.5|
2 Responses to “NFL 2016 Week 12 Game Picks & Analysis – Football”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.