NFL 2016 Week 10 Game Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, November 13, 2016 9:46
Picks & analysis for 2016 NFL Week 10.
NFL Week 10
Dreadful results on our Specials to date—but we’re killin’ it with Totals picks…
NFL WEEKLY RESULTS
WEEK NINE: 5 – 6 – 2 = .454
Overall Tally: 66 – 61 – 7 = .520
Specials 1 – 2 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 12 – 21 – 3 = .366
Totals Picks: 4 – 2 Cumulative Totals = 37 – 20 = .649
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 5
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 5 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 4 – 1
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 7
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 4
DALLAS COWBOYS (7-1) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-4) +2 50 [U]
Well, let’s see now. The Cowboys are number two on my all time Hate List.
I’ve been a die-hard Steelers fan since I can remember remembering.
I wish I could follow the Vegas line and the now clichéd analysis, that Big Ben stinks in his first game after returning from injury, but he comes back strong in the second game—blah, blah, blah.
To be fair, Miami returned two offensive linemen when they shredded the Steelers defense for 200+ yards on the ground. To be fairer, Pittsburgh’s defense stinks, even while showing slight improvement in the last two games.
Teams very rarely hit the draft jackpot the way Dallas did with their two sensational rookies—QB, Dak Prescott, and RB, Ezekiel Elliot—both of whom are legitimate contenders for ROY and/or MVP honors.
With Big Ben at the Pittsburgh helm, the Black & Gold can beat the best in the NFL, but the Steelers haven’t done that on a consistent basis for almost five years and counting.
Very few teams do, when having to overhaul a defense that got old all at once and an offensive line habitually putting their quarterback in danger, not to mention a change in offensive and defensive coordinators. Sprinkle in Ben’s whining about Bruce Arian’s departure, season ending injuries to three first round draft picks and most teams find the recipe to a 4-12 season(s). (See the 2015 Ravens)…
The fact Pittsburgh has made the playoffs in three of the last five years is nothing short of remarkable. But that shouldn’t matter come this Sunday, with this Dallas running game, and this shaky Steelers defense
The Cowboys and head coach Jason Garrett should hand the ball to Zeke Elliot 35 times and watch the best offensive line in the league splinter the Pittsburgh defense until it waves the Terrible Towel in surrender.
Pittsburgh’s only hope is to fire the decisive volley in a shootout. The Cowboys defense is just good enough to prevent that from happening.
Of course, I hope I am so wrong, so far off the mark, so ridiculously inept as a prognosticator, I’ll feel like a pollster who predicted a Donald Trump victory—Oh, wait…
Bet the Over…Go Steelers…
Cowboys 33 Steelers 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK 1 – 5 – 2
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-3) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-1) -7.5 49
Handicapping NFL games, with the goal of beating the Vegas bookies—a totally futile exercise—can be fun, frustrating and when you get into stats, a dizzying, mind-numbing wrestling match against your gut and, very often, common sense.
Taking a look at the Patriots reveals a picture of nearly unparalleled success—albeit skewed by repeated cheating…
Here is New England’s record, Overall and ATS, since 2006:
Wins and Losses
All Games = 143-45 (2nd to Green bay)
The Patriots are first among the NFL’s 32 teams in the following categories:
Home Team Overall = 82-15
As Favorite = 127-34
Home favorite = 79-15
After a bye = 14-3
After a win = 103-37
Non-conference game = 34-10
All Games ATS = 103-79 (2nd to Green bay)
Home Team ATS = 52-42 (5th)
As Favorite = 85-72 (6th)
Home Favorite = 49-42 (7th)
After a bye = 9-7 (14th)
After a win = 73-61 (6th)
Non-conference game = 24-20 (13th).
New England’s record, put into context, says to this handicapper— intelligently betting on Patriots every week will put you close to the .600 mark you need to beat the Gangsters.
When you add this little gem: the Gulls are 21-29—last in the NFL—as an Away Underdog; the Week Ten Lock becomes a Super Lock.
Seattle played Monday Night in an intense and controversial game before flying across every inch of America to play at the Razor where Tom Brady has lost 15 games in the last ten years.
Read it again, and let the magnitude of the numbers sink in…
Seattle is a good football team, too often victimized by their unique geography; they will start out strong, then fade in the second half.
By the fourth quarter, the Pats will be ahead by, at least, ten.
We’ll take the Over.
Patriots 33 Seahawks 21
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 3
HOUSTON TEXANS (5-3) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5(2-6) 44 [U]
Vegas must know something—they probably have a vault of mega-metrics they use to handicap games—because, I’m wondering why Houston isn’t a 5-6 point favorite in this game.
The Jags are mediocre in every offensive category. Granted, Houston is as inept on offense as any NFL club, and since 2003, they only win 45% of their games as an away favorite…
This is one of those times you ignore the numbers because they are spotty.
I just can’t make myself feel this baby as a win for Jacksonville.
Houston wins outright, Under the Number…
Texans 26 Jaguars 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 6
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-3) @ WASHINGTON NATIVE AMERICANS -2 (4-3) -3 43.5 [U]
The Nates only win 36% of their games as a home favorite—and that makes this a risky pick…But…
The Vikes just don’t seem stable to me.
Norv Turner, one of the most respected OCs in the NFL ups and quits on a 5-2 football team whose offense sustained season ending injuries to QB, Teddy Bridgewater, and long-term injuries to Adrian Peterson and two of their best offensive linemen?
Turner’s offensive numbers have never been out of the NFL’s cellar during his time in Minnesota, but the whole thing has become a soap opera.
Norv’s contentions that he resigned in the best interests of the team and there was a difference in approach and philosophy with Chief Viking, Mike Zimmer are not mutually exclusive with the sudsy “Zimmer was surprised” report. It could be two friends and professionals had it out one night, one realized he could no longer maintain one of those relationships and took appropriate, adult steps to remedy the situation. The finality those steps created, or were taken, at all, surprised Zimmer.
Sometimes, believe it or not, life is that mundane.
The shakeup has to hurt the Norsemen. Right now, they’re vulnerable and Sam Bradford, the only leader they have, has yet to forge a reputation as a QB who can put an offense on his back
Washington is currently where the Vikings were when the 2016 campaign began—and you talk about a soap opera. Checkout one of the greatest post-game press conferences in NFL history. Josh Norman’s rant against “Official 88” is pricelessly awesome or awesomely priceless, ranking right up there with any Jim Mora or Denny Green presser:
You can hear the Richard Pryor and Eddie Griffin influences; the guy is a talent, and you can see he’s about to lose it. Watch it to the end. It’s beautiful.
The Nates have lost once in their last six games. According to NFL.com stats, Kirk Cousins is fourth in YPG with a decent 93.0 QBR. Washington doesn’t dominate in any facet of the game and is coming to the part of the season where they must define themselves and learn how to win against vulnerable opponents if they want to challenge division rival, Dallas.
The Vikings defense is still good; take the Under.
Nates 20 Vikings 7
Per usual, here are my picks in bold italics:
NFL Lines For Week 10 – NFL Football Line Week Ten
NFL Line 11/10 – 11/14, 2016
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/10 8:25 ET||At Baltimore [O]||-7.5||Cleveland||44|
|11/13 1:00 ET||At Jacksonville [U]||-2.5 US||Houston||42.5|
|11/13 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-3||Kansas City||44.5|
|11/13 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-3||Denver||49|
|11/13 1:00 ET||At NY Jets||-1.5||Los Angeles||39.5|
|11/13 1:00 ET||Atlanta||-2||At Philadelphia||50|
|11/13 1:00 ET||At Washington O/U||-2.5||Minnesota||41.5|
|11/13 1:00 ET||Green Bay||-2.5||At Tennessee||49.5|
|11/13 1:00 ET||Chicago||-1.5||At Tampa Bay||45.5|
|11/13 4:05 ET||At San Diego||-4||Miami||48.5|
|11/13 4:25 ET||At Arizona||-13.5||San Francisco||48.5|
|11/13 4:25 ET||At Pittsburgh [O]||-2.5 GW||Dallas||50|
|11/13 8:30 ET||At New England [O]||-7.5 LW||Seattle||49|
Monday Night Football Line
|11/14 8:30 ET||At NY Giants [O]||PK||Cincinnati||47|
PK = Pick… No favorite, no underdog… A line of zero.
Bye Weeks: Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, Oakland
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