NFL 2016 Week 9 Thursday Night Game Picks & Analysis – FootballThursday, November 3, 2016 16:08
Picks & analysis for 2016 NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Game.
NFL Week 9 Thursday Night
ATLANTA FALCONS 5-3 @ TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS 3-4
-3.5 50 [O]
You can almost predict the punditocracy’s angles on just about any NFL game. Take this week’s TNF matchup as a perfect example.
Tough Divisional Game = You never know in a divisional game, both teams know each other…no surprises…
Trap Game = This one kills me. Ostensibly, “trap game” means one team is much better than the other and will, of course, have a let down due to lazy prep work, cockiness, lack of in-game focus or adjustment.
Both of these analyses are hackneyed, but like a “did you ever wonder” joke set-up or a “take my wife please” punch line—each contains just enough kernels of truth to be useful.
Yes, the Falcons and Bucs see each other twice a year—but these two coaching staffs are new to the game. Dan Quinn and Dirk Coetter have 5 years of HC experience total.
Trap Game? Idiot, spoiled, entitled Pittsburgh fans love to believe the Steelers, under HC, Mike Tomlin, are more susceptible to this phenomena than any other team in the history of sports.
These kinds of fans, mostly of perennially strong teams, actually believe their team should beat almost any other, especially teams below .500.
In the last four years—in the midst of complete defensive overhaul, and an OL overhaul, and a change in offensive coordinator—the Steelers have lost more than a handful of game to teams, according to some Pittsburgh fans, they should beat.
Fanatics, by definition are shortsighted and myopic. The NFL is structured to make all 31 teams more or less equal. The main differences are in effective, relatively consistent secondary play and, more importantly, the presence of an “elite” QB.
In short, you put Big Ben as the Titan’s QB, they become a favorite to beat the Cheaters. You put Aaron Rogers, in San Fran and they immediately upgrade to an almost certain playoff contender.
Take the Broncos secondary, insert it into the Steelers defensive back field and the Steelers, once again, become a top five defense.
The NFL’s inverse draft order—giving the most successful teams the least reward possible—assures teams usually lack depth and can never truly meet the hackneyed “next man up” mantra.
The one exception?…I can, have and will continue to criticize Belichick’s cheating legacy, but his success, beyond the advantages of his ill-gotten gains, has been sustained by getting every player on the depth chart to buy into what he’s selling. NE fields the deepest, most disciplined team virtually every year.
Atlanta or Tampa Bay can only aspire to such exceptionalism.
We’re betting the short trip to Florida won’t phase Matt Ryan and his offensive juggernaut and the Falcon’s QB will further state his case for league MVP.
Injuries, lack of depth and deficiency in the trenches will conspire to halt Jameius Winston’s progress—and the Bucs ability to spring any kind of trap.
Take the Falcons to Cover, Over the Total.
NFL Lines For Week 9 – 11/3, 2016
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/3 8:25 ET||Atlanta||-3.5||At Tampa Bay||50|
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