2015 NFL Season Week 12 – FootballSunday, November 29, 2015 9:30
NFL Week 12 picks and analysis.
WEEK TWELVE SUNDAY
After eleven weeks of getting Gangster spanked on my picks, it’s about time I gave the crew over at CBS a salute as all eight prognosticators at the Big Eye’s NFL site are kicking the Gairzo’s ass up and down the imaginary aisle of shame. In fact, only two are under .500 and the other six are way over or close to the .550 mark—the minimum to break even with Vegas.
Couple of notes: I count pushes, (ties), as they are supposed to be counted. CBS.com fudges the lines so pushes are impossible. To be clear, there’s nothing shady going on; anyone who handicaps NFL games understands bettors can find lines that vary 1.5 – 2 points or more for any given game.
The CBS boys always project the point spreads to a half point. For example, I jumped on the Broncos as five-point home dogs—their history against the spread as a home dog is one of the NFL’s best—on Monday and made my pick for that game at that time. I’ll be watching that game with five points to CBS’ crew 2.5. Likewise, I jumped on KC because of their home venue giving four to the Bills; since then Chiefs fans have helped that line balloon to 5.5 or six.
In any event, your humble handicapper is getting blitzed—but there is some promise on our Over/Under wagers and, even after an awful Week Eleven Specials performance, we are still treading the quicksand. Finally, we hit a six-play parlay on Thanksgiving, calling all three games perfectly—Totals included.
We need to do some smokin’ if we want to reach the .500 plateau overall and there’s enough time to save the season—but we need a big Week Twelve to make a run at respectability…
Here is our up to date tally:
AFTER WEEK ELEVEN
WEEKLY TALLY: 5 – 9 SPECIALS 1 – 3 O/U 3 – 2
OVERALL: 69 – 86 – 5 SPECIALS 21 – 20 – 3 O/U 35 – 27 – 1
GW 2 – 7 – 2
LW 7 – 4 – 0
US 5 – 5 – 1
O/U 6 – 4 – 1
WEEK TWELVE PICKS
O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 4 – 1
Buffalo Bills (5-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) -1 42 [O]
The “quickly becoming cliché” term –game manager—has become the punditocracy favorite terms to describe KC’s quarterback, Alex Smith.
He takes care of the ball, has thrown just three picks all year, (vs. 10 TDS), hasn’t lost a fumble all year, with a solid 93.0 QB rating. The Chiefs enjoy a top ten rushing game, rush defense, scoring defense, and overall defense—and have won four in a row.
Smith manages his games very well, with perhaps the least gifted receiving corps in the league. He gets criticized for not throwing down field enough, but none of his receivers scare any DC or on-field cornerback.
All of the above are the many reasons why I picked the Arrowheads to make the Super Bowl—and why I think Andy Reid is a top five coach. Few of his peers wring out more production from a team that lost key people—TE Travis Kelce, stud running back, Charcandrick West, who replaced Jamaal Charles—will hobble into Week Twelve.
The Bills ask the same from their young QB, Tyrod Taylor, and they are just as banged up, and not quite as deep as the Arrrowheads. Buffalo is coming off an intense, physical, close loss to the hated Pats and that’s part of the reason we smell a let down in a house that remains difficult for any opponent.
We are looking at a low scoring game; KC covers…
Chiefs 24 Bills 17
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 7 – 2
New England Patriots (10-0) @ Denver Broncos (8-2) -5 43.5 [U]
I won’t lie to you…When I first saw Brock Osweiler would be starting this one, I imagined the Dark Lord of Foxboro smacking his lips devising the blitzes and scheme to confuse Peyton Manning’s back up.
My first instinct was to take the Pats in by fourteen—until I saw the blanket giving 5 points to the Broncos at home.
Mile High Stadium is a tangible advantage for the Broncos and the non-Josh McDaniels coached Broncos perform well as home dogs and are 11-2 straight up in their last 13 at home.
Denver also boasts the leagues best defense and leads the NFL in sacks, (NE is second). They have the defensive Wild Horses to put pressure on a Brady-led bunch that has been bitten by the injury bug. New England is getting thin in replacement talent at precisely the wrong time of the year.
No doubt, the Pats defensive game plan will be to stop the Broncos’ run cold and make Osweiler win the game—and their defense has built a perfect record on making every team they face one dimensional.
Denver’s pressure, outstanding secondary, and Darth Belichick’s evil treatment of inexperienced quarterbacks are compelling reasons why the Under is the logical call here…
We’ll go with Denver winning outright in a close one because their home performances demand it as much as this statistic: home dogs cover the chalk 56.6% of the time.
Look for the Broncs to double Gronk, hassle Brady and send the Pats home with their first loss of the year.
Broncos 23 Patriots 20
As usual, all my picks are below in bold italics:
NFL Lines For Week 12 – 11/26 – 11/30, 2015
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/26 12:30 ET||Philadelphia||-1 [O]||At Detroit||46|
|11/26 4:30 ET||At Dallas LW||-1 [O]||Carolina||46.5|
|11/26 8:30 ET||At Green Bay US||-8.5 [U]||Chicago||47.5|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At Houston||-3||New Orleans||47.5|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-2.5||Minnesota||46|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At Cincinnati||-10||St. Louis||42|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-3||Tampa Bay||46.5|
|11/29 1:00 ET||NY Giants||-1.5||At Washington||46.5|
|11/29 1:00 ET||Oakland||-2||At Tennessee||44|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At Kansas City||-4 O/U||Buffalo||42|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At NY Jets||-3.5||Miami||42.5|
|11/29 1:00 ET||At Jacksonville||-4||At San Diego||46.5|
|11/29 4:05 ET||Arizona||-10.5||At San Francisco||45|
|11/29 4:25 ET||At Seattle||-4.5||Pittsburgh||45.5|
|11/29 8:30 ET||New England [O]||-3 GW||At Denver||43.5|
Monday Night Football Line
|11/30 8:30 ET||At Cleveland [U]||-2.5||Baltimore||41|
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