2015 NFL Season Week 10 – FootballSunday, November 15, 2015 9:15
NFL Week 10 picks and analysis.
WEEK TEN SUNDAY
AFTER WEEK NINE
WEEKLY TALLY: 3 – 10 – 2 SPECIALS 1 – 3 O/U 4 – 2
OVERALL: 58 – 69 – 5 SPECIALS 17 – 16 – 3 O/U 31 – 21 – 1
GW 1 – 6 – 2
LW 6 – 3 – 0
US 4 – 4 – 1
O/U 6 – 3 – 0
WEEK TEN PICKS
O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 3 – 0
Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) @ Denver Broncos (7-1) -6 42 [O]
Andy Reid, coming off the bye…He’s 11-5 in his career as a head coach…The Broncos without stud corner Aquib Talib…Peyton Manning with all kinds of nagging injuries, all contribute to our confidence level rising on laying money on the Over.
We are almost as confident the Chiefs will blanket the spread. The Arrowheads gave Denver all they could handle when the Broncs invaded KC in Week Two. Excepting Week Eights smothering of the Packers—a significant exception, we concede—the Broncos were a play away from losing five games in 2015.
Give John Elway his due as perhaps the most proactive, unafraid to fail GM in the game…He brings in Gary Kubiak to virtually change the teams high-flying passing identity to one that features an effective run game and a great defense.
Still, besides the Packer smack down, the Wild Horses don’t leave the impression they are a fearsome Super Bowl contender. Peyton Manning looks like he’s ready fall apart like a cartoon robot. His fragility, Alex Smith’s ability to protect the football, and the Arrowheads believing they can hang with Denver can make any analysis of this one valid.
Denver wins, KC covers—Over the Number.
Broncos 27 Chiefs 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 3 – 0
New England Patriots (8-0)@ New York Giants (5-4) +7 54.5 [O]
We’re not buying the consensus Big Blue and Tom Coughlin “own” New England and Bill Belichick. No matter where you come down on the degree, depth, and impact of Belichick’s cheating, it’s a safe bet the NE coach would love for any opponent to believe that.
I’m also willing to bet, Darth Belichick has wrestled with that very possibility—precisely why I’m picking a blow out in this one. If the Pats win, the chances of the Giants making the playoffs go from slim to almost none; that means no NFC opponent comes to the Big Dance with any kind of psychological edge…
Let’s not forget, instead of the NFL focusing on the Pats “off any chart” turnover numbers since Brady petitioned the league to control possession, and inflation, of footballs, and how under inflated balls are much easier to catch and hold onto, the NFL targeted Brady, with barely a molehill of evidence. Simply focusing on his minion’s behavior while they possessed the bag of footballs’ and Brady’s behavior after the cat was let out of that bag was damning enough evidence to prove tampering had occurred.
Ted Wells’ Closeau-like investigation and Roger Goodell’s reliance on it had even stubborn Patriot doubters like yours truly shaking their heads…
Therefore, like 2007, when Belichick used the Spygate humiliation to motivate his team, I guarantee he has his 2015 players convinced they’ve been unjustly victimized by Goodell and every team in the league.
Of course, BB and his squad will deny it until cows fly, but he/they want this game more than most. The Giants robbed him of history in two Super Bowls. The Pats want to do all they can to make sure the G-Men don’t get a third shot.
New York’s putrid defense and Rob Gronkowski will make sure they don’t.
Take the Over and a big day for Brady and the Pats.
Patriots 36 Giants 19
GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – 6 – 2
Arizona Cardinals (6-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4) -3 45 [U]
An intra-divisional battle against two intensely physical top three defenses make this baby an easy call for our GOTW.
Of course, you’ll want to lay your money on the outcome exactly opposite the one I predict given our paltry one-win to date for this Special.
Russell Wilson is holding the Gull’s offense together with chicken wire. The offensive line doesn’t give Wilson time or Marshawn Lynch room to run. If Seattle prevails it will due to holding the leagues second most prolific offense to under 17 points. We don’t believe that will happen- but they won’t give up much more
That makes our Under call here easy.
We’ll take Arizona to win outright.
Cards 20 Seahawks 19
UPSET SPECIAL: 3 – 3 – 1
Houston Texans (3-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-0) -10.5 47.5 [O]
The Gangsters who set these lines are phenomenal at what they do. In any given 16 game week, at least ten games will “skirt the line.” Meaning, for example, idiots like me will pick nine to eleven winners straight up, but manage only four to six winners ATS.
Basically, another way the bookies get you, bettors miss the chalk by only a few points—meaning one team was favored by a field goal and won or lost by one. It is uncanny; every week 3-5 games are decided when a player drops a pass, misses a tackle, draws a flag; recovers a late fumble, misses a field goal or a coach goes for two instead of one.
Sometimes, like in this Monday Nighter, the wise-guys hook suckers in by a double digit blanket the favored team can’t escape.
I’m one of those suckers this week. But my reasoning is sound. Even after the Colts Week Nine upset of undefeated Denver, and even at 3-5, the Shit-Kickers have to believe their division is up for grabs. Andrew Luck is hurting. The Colts stink defensively and with an upset of Cincy, the Texans are in first place in the AFC South.
Cincy should win this game. They are at home; they are undefeated, and Houston is minus Arian Foster.
Just the scenario where a great player seizes control of a game—like J.J. Watt.
He’ll keep Houston within the spread, Over the Total.
Bengals 30 Texans 20
As usual, all my picks are below in bold italics:
NFL Lines For Week 10 – NFL Football Line Week Ten NFL Line 11/12 – 11/16, 2015
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/12 8:25 ET||At NY Jets [O]||-2||Buffalo||41.5|
|11/15 1:00 ET||At Green Bay||-11.5||Detroit||48.5|
|11/15 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-1.5||Dallas||43|
|11/15 1:00 ET||Carolina||-4.5||At Tennessee||43.5|
|11/15 1:00 ET||At St. Louis||-7||Chicago||42.5|
|11/15 1:00 ET||New Orleans||-1||At Washington||50.5|
|11/15 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-6||Miami||49|
|11/15 1:00 ET||At Pittsburgh||-5.5||Cleveland||41.5|
|11/15 1:00 ET||At Baltimore||-5.5||Jacksonville||47.5|
|11/15 4:05 ET||At Oakland||-3||Minnesota||44|
|11/15 4:25 ET||At Denver O/U||-6||Kansas City||42|
|11/15 4:25 ET||New England LW||-7 [O]||At NY Giants||54.5|
|11/15 8:30 ET||At Seattle GW||-3 [U]||Arizona||45|
Monday Night Football Line
|11/16 8:30 ET||At Cincinnati US||-10.5 [O]||Houston||47.5|
Bye Weeks: Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, San Francisco
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