NFL 2014 Week 11 Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, November 16, 2014 3:21
Picks and analysis for Week 11 of the 2014 season.
NFL WEEK 11
NFL WEEK 10 PICKS
Here’s the tally thru Week Ten… We are still perfect on our Special Weekly O/U picks…
WEEK TEN ATS = 6 – 7 CUMULATIVE ATS = 74 – 71 – 2
SPECIAL TALLY WEEK TEN = 2 – 2 CUMULATIVE SPECIALS = 23 – 18
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 6
LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 6
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 6
O/U OF THE WEEK 10 – 0 WEEKLY O/Us 2 – 2
PREMEIRE PARLAY 2 – 1 CUMULATIVE O/Us 23– 20
Week 10 featured the least compelling matchups of 2014. Week 11 has at least six games that would fight for the Best Game of the Week…
NFL WEEK 11 PICKS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – 2 (42)
I’ll take the world champs in this one based upon tried and true analysis…They are the better football team.
My readers know I love Andy Reid. I think he’s a top-shelf play caller and OC. I think he gets more out of non-elite talent than just about any coach in the last quarter century. Thing is, that skill set doesn’t bode well against teams that can power run the ball down your throat.
The ‘Hawks are 12 – 5 in their last seventeen road games and tend to keep the ball in the capable hands of Marshawn Lynch when playing on the road—good for the Under in two thirds of their last nine road games.
The Chiefs, surprisingly have beaten the spread in only three of their past nine home games. The Arrowhead mystique has faded and the Under has been the winner in all but one of the Chief’s last five games
We jumped on this two-point spread on Tuesday and most of the money has gone for Seattle so we’re ahead of the suckers who only get a “pick-em” option.
We think the “Hawks will win a close one in the heartland, and we’ll call the Under.
Seahawks 22 Chiefs 17
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 5
DETROIT LIONS @ARIZONA CARDINALS Pick 41.5 [U]
This game looked iffy when Detroit was getting two points, so we waited to see the money settle—and now it’s a pick-em game and I can’t believe I am writing the following sentence:
The Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals might be the two best teams in football…
Whew, the earth did not open up and swallow me up.
Detroit is only giving up 283 yards a game on defense—the only team under the 300-yard mark—with a frightening pass rush. They are making it tough on defenses. When they smacked Green Bay all over their home dome, Detroit seldom blitzed, covered with two high safeties and stuffed the run all day.
Two caveats: That was before Aaron Rodgers told everyone to “relax” and looking at the Lion’s schedule, the win against the Pack was only the second quality win of the season for the Jungle Kings.
Meaning, besides last week’s heart thumper against the Fish, Green Bay was the only .500 or above team they beat all year. And, the Lions last three wins—two at home—required final second miracles by the much more reliable Matthew Stafford against the Saints, Falcons and Miami.
Steelers fans have excoriated the Black & Gold for losing to the Jets and Bucs…The 49ers took beatings from the Rams and Bears…The AFC South leading Saints-and consensus Super Bowl favorites—are 4-5 and took one on the chin from Atlanta and Dallas…
The Cardinals lost big 41- 20 giving up 17 4th quarter points to Denver Jesus and his Broncos.
Other than falling short against Denver, the Red Birds have beaten the rest of the NFL.
If Detroit wins this game, I’ll feel almost as good about them as I do the Cards right now. Until then, we’ll take the home team with the best coach I’ve seen in a long time—if anyone can make Drew Stanton look like Carson Palmer, it’s Bruce Arians; his work with QBs is legendary…
Should be an overtime thriller, a low scoring, defense dominated, struggle…
We like the Under…
Cardinals 21 Lions 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 5
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – 7  (O)
It’s not like we’re angry at Marvin Lewis for somehow letting a legitimate top five defense turn into a serious liability.
Okay, maybe we are…
It’s not like we think Andy Dalton somehow is playing like a guy with his feet up at practice, rereading the fat contract he signed earlier this year…
Okay, maybe we do…
It definitely is all about your humble columnist looking like Elmer Fudd transforming into a human-sized lollipop after picking Cincy to dominate the AFC North and get to the Super Bowl.
I’ve been asking about why Lewis is given so much slack by Mike Brown—Cincy fans will say it is because he’s cheap—and wondering why Lewis deserves to be any team’s head coach. In 12 years as Bengals head coach, Lewis has:
- 5 seasons above .500…
- Has won 11 games only twice…
- Zero playoff victories…
I’m getting sick of posting that info on Marvin Lewis. The window won’t stay open forever.
I wasn’t the only Mook to think the Bengals were on the cusp of something special. Their talent is as elite as any other NFL team: Gio Bernard, A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, Burfect, Domato Peko—Here, look for yourself…
Young, highly rated talent, as blessed as any NFL Team. The last three drafts were universally lauded as the best in Bengals history. Elmer Fudd or I could win a playoff game with that roster…
Meanwhile, in the Bayou…Rob Ryan’s resume is slowly turning into a sour gumbo. Last year, 3rd best defense…This year? 19th
Drew Brees isn’t quite as flawless as usual but the guy is still top three in every passing category. Excepting the Saints blow out loss to Dallas, New Orleans has lost their other four games by a combined nine points.
There’s no way the Striped Cats prowl into the Superdome, even with seven points in their pocket, and do anything but fold like a cheap lawn chair.
Which, of course, curses the Holy Men to an historic, home, blowout loss.
Yeah, that’s right I’m tempting fate…
Take New Orleans – 7 and play the Over.
Saints 33 Bengals 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA VIKING @ CHICAGO BEARS -3 46
Can we say with unabashed confidence what NFL team in the last three years has collapsed so definitively on defense?
Do Bears shit in the woods?
Yeah, but the defense in Chicago prefers football fields.
The Mark Trestman experiment is simply not working. Jay Cutler is regressing; the defense has no heart, and without the wildcard magic of a Devin Hester, Chicago has no chance.
Defense, bad defense, seems to be at the heart of the Bears’ trouble.
Worse than that, Chicago saves their worst defensive performances so Aaron Rodgers can humiliate them and make a mockery of the oldest and one of the most storied rivalries in professional sports.
Here’s some analysis on the Packers smack down of Chicago from the Vikings online crew:
Against the Vikings, I’m thinking the Bears will show enough pride at home to play respectable defense; so will the Mike Zimmer led Norsemen.
They’ve been doing it all year.
Jay Cutler will take some hits from a very good Viking pass defense and this will end up being a slugfest. The loser will see its quarterback make the worst mistake at the most inopportune time.
Of late, Jay Cutler has been very good at doing exactly that.
I just can’t take the Bears to win much of anything. I’m playing the under and the Vikes plus a field goal…
Vikings 24 Bears 20
As usual, my entire slate of picks follow in bold, italic…
NFL Line For Week 11 11/13 – 11/17, 2014
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/13 8:25 ET||At Miami [U]||-5||Buffalo||41.5|
|11/16 1:00 ET||At Cleveland||-3||Houston||41|
|11/16 1:00 ET||At Chicago O/U||-3||Minnesota||46.5|
|11/16 4:25 ET||At Green Bay||-6||Philadelphia||55|
|11/16 1:00 ET||At Kansas City [O]||-2 US||Seattle||42|
|11/16 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-1.5||Atlanta||47|
|11/16 1:00 ET||At New Orleans [O]||-7 LW||Cincinnati||50.5|
|11/16 1:00 ET||At Washington||-7||Tampa Bay||45.5|
|11/16 1:00 ET||Denver||-9.5||At St. Louis||51|
|11/16 1:00 ET||San Francisco||-4||At NY Giants||43.5|
|11/16 4:05 ET||At San Diego||-10||Oakland||44.5|
|11/16 4:25 ET||At Arizona GW||-2 [U]||Detroit||41.5|
|11/16 8:30 ET||At Indianapolis||-3 [O]||New England||58|
|11/17 8:30 ET||Pittsburgh [U]||-5.5||At Tennessee||47|
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