NFL 2014 Week 6 Thursday Night Pick & Analysis – FootballThursday, October 9, 2014 15:58
Picks and analysis for the Thursday night game of Week 6 of the 2014 NFL season.
2014 NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 47 (U)
When you pick against the spread long enough, your experience teaches you certain fundamental truths:
Picking against home underdogs seldom works out…
Picking against a franchise quarterback usually doesn’t pay off…
Knowing each game’s “trendencies” and apply them appropriately is a good idea…
A great offense will usually beat a good defense…
A great defense will usually beat a good offense…
…Most of the time…
Seems pretty simple, except when you depend on words like “seldom” “usually’ and “most of the time,” your essentially admitting your shooting crap and barely hitting 50% is what most people end up doing.
I’ll prove that in painful depth when we do our tallies for Week 5 in Saturdays post.
‘Til then all of us can live by the following cliché, “What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas”—which is never truer than when you’re talking about gambling.
The money always stays in Vegas.
Tonight’s contest between AFC South rivals gives us insight on how difficult it is to pick against Vegas.
We’ve got the best fourth quarter QB in the league—only in his third year—Andrew Luck facing the Houston Texans and the most relentless and talented defender since Lawrence Taylor, J.J. Watt.
Offensive coordinators tailor their game plans to minimize Watt’s effectiveness and few are successful.
Too bad Watt doesn’t play quarterback, because there’s no way Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to out-duel Luck, and no way Bill O’Brien can call a the more effective game with Fitzpatrick than Pep Hamilton will call with the QB he developed at Stanford and set records with in two years at Indy.
Because of that comfort level the Colts have, they will win this one, but it might be closer than you think.
Take the Horseshoes barely under the number.
Colts 24 Texans 21
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