NFL 2014 Week 5 Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, October 5, 2014 9:06
Picks and analysis for Week 5 of the 2014 season.
NFL WEEK 5
I ain’t sayin’…I’m just sayin’…
Boycott?!! Jeez, what the hell was I thinking? 22.68 million people watched the Cowboys torture the Saints last Sunday night…3 million more than the week before, and right in line with most any prime time tilt involving Dallas.
This country can’t get behind anything but bombing brown people. Not equal pay for woman or not stopping the physical abuse of women, not ridding ourselves of political corruption. Does it surprise anyone but me we have a thriving dick pill industry, yet our health experts contradict each other on how to handle the Ebola virus.
Stay Hard, America…
EBOLA …It sounds like a cough drop that can get you high…
Roger Goodell and NFL owners just can’t grasp reality…If independent investigator—try not to laugh—Robert Mueller finds that Goodell and/or his staff did, indeed receive the tape of 220 pound Ray Rice’s vicious left hook to 110 pound Janay Palmer, and covered it up—Goodell should be fired publicly.
If Mueller discovers Goodell never asked for the tape—the most crucial piece of evidence in the assault—Goodell should be fired without severance pay.
That money should go to women’s shelters all across America.
In a recent, and very disturbing study, 76 of 79 brains donated by deceased ex-NFL players or their families were found to have chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE).
“It’s so sad,” he said, longingly scratching his testicles, while watching the Red Zone Channel…
New England haters like myself can’t express how joyous it was to see “The Cheatin’ Genius” Bill Belichick squirm as he repeatedly ignored questions about a talentless offensive line, a porous defense, and how unprepared his team looked during the Monday Night Massacre at Arrowhead Stadium.
Just as happy were Steelers haters listening to Mike Tomlin rant on the racial horrors of being a player’s coach. My readers know I love Tomlin and in this space, and all over the ‘Net, I’ve called out the undeniable race based hatred some Pittsburgh fans have toward youngest coach to win a Super Bowl…
Here’s a great discussion on the Tomlin interview: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11618359/mike-tomlin-pittsburgh-steelers-discuss-players-coach-means-him
C’mon…Coach, what the hell do you want people to call you when your team has the second most penalties—and is the undisputed leader in stupid penalties—and you hold none of them accountable?
Coach Tomlin talks about it a lot—accountability, The Steeler Way, “the standard”…But he has yet to discipline a player in a way that would show his team—forget the fans—that he means business.
If I’m coaching the Steelers and in the back of my mind I resent being called a player’s coach, (for whatever reason), the moment Antonio Brown comes off the field after earning a flag for excessive celebration, I high five him for scoring, then put my finger in his face and tell him to sit his ass down. This team can’t afford its veteran players making bad decisions that could mean the difference between winning and losing.
One series, the rest of the quarter…just some measure of accountability. The following Monday—win or lose—I make it policy: Stupid penalties—and I get to determine what stupid is—get you benched. First offense = one series…Subsequent offenses = one quarter…the rest of the half…an entire game…Until my guys get the message…
Coach Tomlin should worry less about being called a player’s coach and focus more on coaching his players.
I’ve written it before and I’ll write it again—if only to delude myself into believing I have integrity:
I love the violence of football. When I explained the art of tackling to my son, I told him to put his shoulder to the opponent’s chest imagining your pads shattering his spine as you drive him to the ground.
Never cheap shot. Never intend to hurt. But, if you are going to play the damn game, play it like a man and inflict as much damage as the rules allow.
Given recent revelations about the NFL covering up everything from the brain damage the game causes, to spousal and child abuse, to Spy Gate, and Ray Rice’s left hook, I wouldn’t let my son near a football field.
Imagine your 18 years old…300 lbs…Can run like a deer and bench press Japan…You’ve got Urban Mayer and Nick Saban eating your mom’s meatloaf, telling you, you have pro potential.
Your family isn’t “poor” but your sick of meatloaf three days a week, your old man already had one heart attack and your high school sweetheart just stopped taking the pill.
You’ve read all about the risks—CTE crippling injuries, broken bones, the possibility of a violent suicide—you know Mayer and Saban and any pro coach you might play for cares only about winning…(You aren’t stupid—yet.)
You also know if you play ten productive years in the NFL and retire you will have15-20 million in the bank, live in a mansion, make a woman deliriously happy, guarantee your children a top-flight education and just about anything else they want—not to mention all the toys a man playing a game could ever want.
What decision would you make?
Not so easy, is it?
WEEK 5 PICKS
After the first four weeks of the 2014 season we’re over .500 ATS, overall, and at the even mark on our Specials—well ahead of where we were at this juncture last year.
Our Specials O/U picks have been flawless thus far and we’ve won the only major Parlay we’ve played.
How about we shut up while we’re ahead?
By the way, I will pick the Total for every prime time matchup beginning this week.
Here’s our tally sheet:
WEEK FOUR ATS = 6 – 6 – 1 CUMULATIVE ATS = 31 – 28 – 2
SPECIAL TALLY WEEK FOUR = 1 – 3 CUMULATIVE SPECIALS = 8 – 8
WEEKLY SPECIALS 3 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 1 – 3
UPSET SPECIAL 1 – 3 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 – 0 WEEKLY O/Us 2 – 1 CUMULATIVE O/Us 10 – 9
PREMEIRE PARLAY 1 – 0
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts – 3.5 (49)
Much as it pains a Steelers fan to say it, John Harbaugh might be the most underrated coach in the NFL—if you can forget his absurd and gutless reaction to the Ray Rice fiasco.
Harbaugh has managed to keep his team focused enough to keep pace with the Bengals in the AFC North—and deliver a prodigious beating to bitter rival Pittsburgh in Week Two.
Because of injuries, the Rat Birds are playing short handed; the team is in the throes of a major distraction. Indy has their number at home and the under is surely the safe bet. Trend watchers will love these nuggets:
- The Total has gone under in 8 out of the last 9 Colts/Ravens games
- Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Then why in the name of Jesus and all that is holy is Gairzo picking Baltimore and the Over?
OC, Pep Hamilton and Andrew Luck have continued their success in Indianapolis after tearing it up at Stanford. The Colts have scored 85 points in their last two games and seldom score less than 27 points per game; the Horseshoes lead the NFL in offense.
The Ravens defense is nowhere near what it once was; Baltimore is number six in Total Offense—and the Colts “D” is struggling to find its soul post Dwight Freeney.
Ravens new OC, Gary Kubiak, and Joe Flacco are starting to see eye to eye.
Scoring points won’t be a problem in this one.
I’m going against the trends and taking the Baltimore to cover way over the number.
Colts 33 Ravens 31
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 (47.5)
The Jags have shown improvement under the intense coaching eye of Gus Bradley. Unfortunately, the improvement has shown up in precious few series or quarters, or halves—not yet for the 60 minutes required on an NFL football field.
Of course, now that I point that out, look for Jacksonville to be in top form this Sunday. They’ll have to be to win a game against a Steelers team trying to forget last week’s gag-fest loss versus the Bucs.
Jaguar rookie QB Blake Bortles has compelled the media in both cities to compare him to Big Ben Roethlisberger in terms of just about every metric, arm strength, elusiveness, size, and ability to extend plays.
The only difference is Ben’s supporting cast has revived a dormant Steelers rushing game and has rendered the Todd Haley haters mostly silent as Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total offense. (Oh yeah, and when Ben enjoyed record setting success as a rookie, his team and coach were elite. The Jags? Not so much.)
The Spotted Cats are the league’s worse offensive team—and only slightly better on defense.
This is my LOW because I’m banking on Mike Tomlin to have his squad ready to put a 60-minute effort together devoid of dumb mistakes, untimely penalties, and Cowboys like crying to the refs.
If Pittsburgh does not decisively throttle the Jags, things are much worse behind the Steel Curtain than anyone thought.
Steelers 31 Jaguars 13
GAME OF THE WEEK
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers – 6.5
Alex Smith heads back to the team he used to play for, but never really had faith in him. Smith is a smart enough QB to know it was nothing personal. When he began his pro career, the Niners were in turmoil and flux trying to replace the madness behind the eyes of Mike Singletary with the cringe-inducing intensity of Jim Harbaugh.
We believe the 49ers could be the games most overrated squad. Colin Kaepernik has never found consistency with accuracy, the defense has taken an injury/free agent hit in 2014—and Harbaugh, himself has become a distraction.
A coach in an all too public power struggle with his GM is not good for football business.
On the Kansas City hand, I love what Andy Reid brings to the field.
But when the home team edges out its opponent in talent at the skill positions and has a pass rush good enough to scare the most mobile of quarterbacks, even Alex Smith sporting a revenge chip on his shoulder won’t mean much.
49ers 27 Chiefs 19
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots +1.5 (46)
This isn’t astrophysics. The Bengals can match talent with any elite team in the NFL and the Brady Bunch is no longer elite. The Striped Cats should be able to score at will on a less than stellar Pats defense.
Take the Over–And here’s another reason:
Bill Belichick sounds like a pouting 8-year old when things don’t go his way but we’re betting he will have his team pumped up to send a message that New England is still relevant.
Even if they aren’t.
Bengals 34 Patriots 28
As usual, my picks are in italics below:
NFL Lines For Week 5 – 10/2 – 10/6, 2014
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/2 8:25 ET||At Green Bay O||-9||Minnesota||46.5|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At Carolina||-3||Chicago||46.5|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At Tennessee||-1.5||Cleveland||44.|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-7||St. Louis||48|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At NY Giants||-4||Atlanta||50.5|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-11||Tampa Bay||48.5|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At Dallas||-6||Houston||47|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At Detroit||-7||Buffalo||44|
|10/5 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis US||-3.5 O||Baltimore||49|
|10/5 1:00 ET||Pittsburgh LW||-6.5 O||At Jacksonville||47.5|
|10/5 4:05 ET||At Denver||-7.5||Arizona||48|
|10/5 4:25 ET||At San Francisco O||-6 GW||Kansas City||44.5|
|10/5 4:25 ET||At San Diego||-7||NY Jets||44|
|10/5 8:30 ET||Cincinnati O/U||-1.5||At New England||46|
|10/6 8:30 ET||Seattle O||-7.5||At Washington||45|
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