NFL 2014 Week 1 Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, September 7, 2014 7:58
Pick and analysis for Week 1 of the 2014 season.
BACK WHERE WE BELONG
Yes, we have our Bovada account at our finger tips. We began the year with a 40.00 Parlay winner taking the Hawks to cover against Green Bay and the over.
As usual, we will compare our weekly and overall performances with the guys who get paid to pick against the spread. If you recall, we smoked the Boys at CBS.com even though our paltry percentages still lost us money.
We will have eight Special Picks each week. Our four traditional picks:
- Game of the Week
- Upset Special
- Lock Of the Week
- Over/Under of the Week
We will also play the total on the top three Specials and play a weekly Premiere Parlay.
Here’s our first installment for Week One of the 2014 NFL season:
GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – 0
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks – 6 (47) [O]
Premier Parlay = ATS and Over the number
SEAHAWKS 36 PACKERS 16
UPSET SPECIAL 0 – 0
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens – 1.5 (43) [O]
The Ravens have had an off-season of discontent—wife beating, arrests—and they missed the playoffs. Enter Gary Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator. If you look at teams that bring in new coordinators or coaches, the transitions from the old regime to the new are seldom smooth. In many cases, learning a new playbook is like learning a new language; there are some familiar words and football players generally adapt without a problem—but there is a period of adjustment because of complex schemes and concepts, or personality conflicts or egos.
Like it or not Ravens fans, your boys are going to struggle before they fully grasp Kubiak’s system, even with a hard running game and the addition of Steve Smith on the outside. The Bengals also have a new OC in Hugh Jackson—but he was promoted from running backs coach and knows the offense Jay Gruden ran.
We believe both teams know each other well enough to score three touchdowns or more, (and the Ravens are a dangerous return team.) Ultimately, the Bengals will make an early statement on who will rule the AFC North; take the over on this puppy.
BENGALS 33 RAVENS 27
LOCK OF THE WEEK 0 – 0
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets – 5.5 (40.5) [U]
This one is a no brainer for a myriad of reasons: The Raiders traded for Matt Schaub who got beat out by rookie QB Derek Carr…The Jets defensive front seven is the NFL’s best and they will terrorize Carr all day long…Oakland, like most west coast teams, hates traveling east to play a game that starts at what is normally 10:00am for them…It won’t matter that they flew in on Thursday instead of Friday…Oakland, according to just about every expert, really stinks…
I’m not sure I agree. Lamaar Woodley, Justin Tuck, and Carlos Rogers will join studley rookie Khalil Mack to give the Raiders a legit defense—at least on paper.
The Jets will play tough defense and run the ball with former Titan, Chris Johnson, Bilal Powell, and Chris Ivory. Interestingly, the Raiders last two outings against the Airplanes saw them having great success on the ground.
My gut said take the Jets and the under—I’ll stick with that
JETS 24 RAIDERS 13
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 0 – 0
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears – 7 (47.5) [U]
Jim Schwarz takes the helm for a Bills defense that will probably be as undisciplined and border line dirty as Schwarz’ notorious Lions defenses—but could still make Sunday a difficult home opener for Jay Cutler. The mercurial Bear QB might not care about the Bills defensive line; he has a few more legitimate weapons than he’s used to—Alshon Jefferies, Brandon Marshall, and Martellus Bennet.
Bills head honcho, Doug Marrone found himself in a shouting match, on the field, with at least one of his bosses last week. That kind of friction does not help a football TEAM.
It will be a close one but were playing the under
BEARS 27 BILLS 20
Reminder, I pick these games at various times during the week. The point spreads and totals may shift before game time…
As usual, my picks are in bold/italic below
NFL Lines Week One, 9/7 – 9/8, 2014
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|9/7 1:00 ET||New Orleans||-3||At Atlanta||52|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At St. Louis||-3.5||Minnesota||43|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At Pittsburgh||-7||Cleveland||41.5|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-10.5||Jacksonville||52|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At NY Jets LW||-5.5||Oakland||40.5|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At Baltimore||-1.5 US||Cincinnati||43|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At Chicago O/U||-7||Buffalo||47.5|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At Houston||-3||Washington||44.5|
|9/7 1:00 ET||At Kansas City||-3||Tennessee||43.5|
|9/7 1:00 ET||New England||-5||At Miami||46.5|
|9/7 4:25 ET||At Tampa Bay||-3||Carolina||38|
|9/7 4:25 ET||San Francisco||-4.5||At Dallas||51.5|
|9/7 8:30 ET||At Denver||-8||Indianapolis||55.5|
Monday Night Football Line
|9/8 7:10 ET||At Detroit||-6||NY Giants||47|
|9/8 10:25 ET||At Arizona||-3||San Diego||46.5|
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