NFL Wildcard Divisional Saturday Picks & Analysis – FootballSaturday, January 11, 2014 10:30
Picks and analysis for the 2013 NFL season Divisional Weekend Saturday games.
NFL DIVISIONAL WEEKEND
We had to open our big mouths after Week 16 and brag—after enjoying our best week of the year (11-5)—that we had a shot to actually surpass the 56% threshold and beat the gangsters for the regular season.
I ended up looking like Sonny Corleone in the causeway toll-booth.
That’s what happens when your Week 17 ledger looks like this…
WEEK 17 TALLY = 4 – 12
CUMULATIVE TALLY = 128 – 119 – 9 .518
WEEK 17 SPECIALS = 2 – 5
CUMULATIVE SEASON SPECIALS = 37 – 47 – 4 .440
GW = 11 – 5 – 1
LW = 6 – 12
US = 5 – 11 – 1
OU = 15 – 19 – 2
PARLAY SPECIAL = 5 – 5
After a very pedestrian 3 – 4 – 1 Wild Card round, here are our up-to-date numbers:
CUMULATIVE TALLY = 131 – 123 – 10 .516
CUMULATIVE SEASON SPECIALS = 40 – 51 – 5 .439
The Divisional Round is our last chance to save our skin and end 2013 on a high note…
NFL DIVISIONAL SATURDAY
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks -8 (45) [U]
I’m taking the Saints to cover and just miss on winning outright as a Drew Brees pass waffles out of the end zone during the game’s final play.
Rain and wind will dictate much of the action in this one as 25-30 MPH gusts and steady rain will make turnovers even more of a factor.
This contest is a pure hunch call for me. I have to believe Sean Payton can find a way to minimize the vaunted 12th Man advantage the Gulls enjoy at home. In fact, New Orleans can eliminate the pre-snap SNAFUS that plague visitors to the Great Northwest by assigning the same snap count to a series or even a given down:
First series of game on first down = Second Sound Snap
Second Down = First Sound Snap
Third Down = First “GO!”
If the Saints score on their first possession and show Seattle that they came to play, the game will end up with both teams scoring pretty close to 20 points.
If the Saints let the crowd get into their heads, the following prediction will make me look like a moron.
Oh, shut up!
Marshawn Lynch is the better back; Seattle’s defense is superior. I just think Payton and Brees are too smart to get trampled three times in a row at Q-West Field.
This one stays tight ‘til the final tick of the clock…The Holy Men cover under the number.
SEAHAWKS 22, SAINTS 17
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots -7.5 (51) [U]
In decent weather, this is a home team pick and way over the number. With 25 MPH winds forecast for kickoff along with moderate to light rains throughout the evening, we believe the Pats’ home field advantage is negated not only by the nasty weather, but a Colts’ squad brimming with confidence.
Indy played last week, making a historic comeback against KC. Top seeded teams often take as much as the first half to get their rhythm back after a bye–and Tom Brady has looked only slightly above average without a healthy Rob Gronkowski to throw to.
Gronk had ACL surgery last Thursday.
The Pats still have a well-oiled attack and a less awful defense than Indy, and I just don’t see them losing their edge at the Razor.
But the Horseshoes with a touch of Luck and Mother Nature could make it closer than a barbershop shave.
PATRIOTS 26, COLTS 24
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