NFL Week 11 Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, November 17, 2013 9:02
Picks and analysis for the 2013 NFL season Week 11 games.
NFL WEEK 11
If you think I am going to humbly sit back and let my clear superiority over the “Gang of Eight” over at CBS.com to go unnoticed, I have one question for you:
Are you insane?
The one week I can actually boast about something, anything, regarding picking against the spread? The one week I have been over .500 FOR THE year? The first “big” week I can point to in 2013?
WEEKLY TALLY = 9 – 4 – 1
CUMMULATIVE TALLY = 74 – 68 – 5 .521
SPECIALS = 3 – 1
GW = 7 – 2 – 1
LW = 3 – 7
US = 4 – 5 – 1
OU = 3 – 7
SPECIALS TALLY = 17 – 21 – 2
PARLAY SPECIAL = 1 – 2
Please hold your applause—really, don’t embarrass me. Fine, I’ll show some class and allow you to finish…
Yep, the Gairzo called a hell of a slate in Week Ten. The only game that truly escaped the grasp of his genius was the trouncing the Big Horns laid on the Horseshoes.
Who in their right mind saw that coming?
What’s more, he missed only on the Over for the Philly/Packer tilt and with a 4-0 Week Eleven, can reach the .500 plateau on his Specials.
And, yes, you read right, the G-Man won his first parlay of the year when the Colts /Titans pushed and went over the number.
Evidently, Bovada.com credited the Gairzo with a win even though he pushed on one half of a two-bet parlay.
Week 10’s most exciting moment came when the Village Idiot discovered almost accidentally that his 5 Game Parlay—worth 136.00 was about to payoff. Only an idiot believes he’ll ever win such a bet—hell, only an idiot makes such a bet.
Oh, shut up!
Imagine The Genius’s surprise when he checked his account, saw the wager still open–and the Eagles driving against the Packers for the touchdown to top the number!
Oh, babeee!!! The Gairzo toggled back to his Red Zone Channel Paisan, Andrew Siciliano, just in the nick of time to see the stinking Eagles take a knee at the Green Bay 20-yard line!
Unfortunately, after writing the preceding scintillating paragraphs, the Gairzo cannot ever again rail against arrogant, entitled, jerk-off athletes talking in the third person…
He’ll get over it.
WEEK 11 PICKS
I’m losing an average of only 4.00 a week and really having fun. When you put money on every game, there is something to cheer for, or against, the entire Sunday and Monday of NFL football.
Thus far, I managed to maintain my integrity by verbally rooting for every pro-Steelers outcome even though one or more may lose me some cash.
Bovada Account: –43.62
I’ve got a feeling this is going to be my best week ever—I’ll be on the plus side in my account, even or better on my Specials, and above the 55% mark overall…
Cocky? Who’s cocky?
GAIRZO AGAINST CBS
What a motley crew of “experts” CBS has on its website. Jamie Eisenberg has turned colder than the shady side of an iceberg and still “leads” the band of bumblers with a dead even mark. Will Brinson is two games south of .500 and the next best of the remaining six are 12 games under that barely acceptable mark.
While fact-checking this post, I ran across an interview segment on CBSSports.com. You might want to check out Nando Di Fino’s sit-down with former Bengal Chad Johnson for two reasons:
Di Fino asks some really interesting questions that were equaled or bettered by Johnson’s insightful, honest, and sometimes provocative answers.
The less Johnson plays to the camera, the more it loves him.
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 5 – 1
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills -1 (41)
I think the Jets are the better team in this one, simply playing better football. Could be because, so far this year Rex Ryan has done more coaching than talking—and maybe that’s why his Jets are still in the postseason picture in Week 11.
Some idiots out there thought Ryan would be fired by now—who, me?
The Bills just can’t get their best players on the field at the same time—E.J. Manuel and C.J. Spiller spent the last month nursing injuries; this week, Stevie Johnson is.
For the Airplanes, Santonio Holmes is back after a couple puffs of chronic—I mean after foot/leg injuries—that cost him the season to date.
The Bills might use the stormy weather to run Fred Jackson to daylight, and that could make it a long day for the Jets.
I’m not buying that, folks—the Jets defense, with that awesome front seven, will win the day.
JETS 22, BILLS 17
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 2 – 1
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos -8 (49.5)
Damn, nobody is giving the undefeated Chiefs props at all—or Andy Reid either.
In his his 14-year+ head-coaching career, Coach Reid is a blistering 13 – 1 after the bye. If you want to know why, Reid’s answer is vintage Andy:
Obviously, Reid is a perfect fit in America’s heartland. He looks like a guy you’d see behind a roadside BBQ stand in KC—and he chose a team that was loaded with untapped or unproven talent.
Slather that sauce on, coach.
Then he went out and got the perfect quarterback for his system—and his defense has one of the best front sevens in the game.
Peyton Manning on a gimpy ankle is better than most quarterbacks with feet blessed by God.
But, the Chiefs have heard it too loud for two weeks:
- Their schedule is weak.
- Alex Smith can’t go downfield.
- Manning doesn’t get sacked.
Th truth is, the Broncos have played many of the same teams, Dwayne Bowe is about to silence some critics, and that front four is coming after Manning.
We’re taking the Chiefs to win outright, and the under.
CHIEFS 27, BRONCOS 21
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 5
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (41.5)
In 2013, I have been looking at the Cardinals harder than an ornithologist with OCD and a redhead fetish. I’ve made money with these little birds, who should find themselves in the catbird seat even against the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Arizona, slowly but surely is learning good teams nearly always beat the teams they should. Bruce Arians has done more with less than any coach in his division.
The Jaguars probably breathed a sigh of relief this week after upsetting the Titans in Week 10.
That might be a problem because Arizona, at 5 – 4, is contending for a wildcard spot and probably isn’t in the mood to give any opponent breathing room.
Jacksonville needs another good draft, or two, before anyone takes them seriously.
I’m breaking a Cardinal rule by picking against a home dawg getting 6 or more points—but at least I’m doing it with the appropriate team.
CARDINALS 23, JAGUARS 14
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 5
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants -5 (42)
The Giants under Tom Coughlin have too often stunk during the first half of any given season only to revive themselves in time to win a Super Bowl—or two.
The Packers under Mike McCarthy and quarterbacked by Aaron Rogers would normally be favored in this one by 6-7 points. Yes, Aaron Rogers is worth about 10-12 points a game…
Scott Tolzein is no Aaron Rogers—but he showed some flash in last week’s loss to the Eagles. The Giants secondary doesn’t make any QB’s knees wobble.
Eli Manning is no Aaron Rogers, either, but Peyton’s baby brother is still worth 6-8 points per game—in 2013, too often for the wrong team. Eddie Lacy is finding more running room every week.
This one feels like two teams that may find different ways to score a lot of points.
We’ll take the G-Men and the Over.
GIANTS 27, PACKERS 20
Reminder, I pick these games at various times during the week. The point spreads and totals may shift before game time…
As usual, my picks are in italic below
NFL Lines For Week 11 – 11/14 – 11/18, 2013
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total||Indianapolis||-3||At Tennessee||42|
|11/17 1:00 ET||Atlanta||-1.5||At Tampa Bay||43|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-1US||NY Jets||41|
|11/17 1:00 ET||Detroit||-2||At Pittsburgh||47.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-3.5||Washington||52.5|
|11/17 4:05 ET||San Diego||-1.5||At Miami||45.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Chicago||-3||Baltimore||46|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Cincinnati||-6||Cleveland||42.5|
|11/17 1:00 ET||At Houston||-7||Oakland||42|
|11/17 1:00 ET||Arizona||-7LW||At Jacksonville||41.5|
|11/17 8:30 ET||At Denver||-8 GW||Kansas City||49.5|
|11/17 4:25 ET||At Seattle||-12.5||Minnesota||45.5|
|11/17 4:25 ET||At New Orleans||-3||San Francisco||47.5|
|11/17 4:25 ET||At NY Giants||-4O/U||Green Bay||42|
Monday Night Football Line
|11/18 8:40 ET||At Carolina||-2.5||New England||46|
Bye Weeks: Dallas, St. Louis
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