NFL Week 3 Picks & Analysis – FootballSunday, September 22, 2013 5:18
Picks and analysis for the 2013 NFL season Week 3 games.
NFL WEEK THREE
In Pittsburgh, Losing isn’t just losing…It’s a MindF%#K!!!
Athletes are used to getting what they want, when they want…Most athletes—often until they turn pro—don’t learn how to deal with losing…
Losing seriously troubles the athletic mind, more than non-athletes can ever comprehend—especially in organizations used to winning trophies a couple times a decade.
In the most serious cases, losing penetrates the grey matter, stabbing violently at rational thought and self esteem, sometimes causing the victim to withdraw into a depressed state of loneliness and panic…
And, strangely, craving a cigarette.
Here’s what the Pittsburgh Steelers veterans—most very new to being two games under .500—chose to do about their 0 – 2 record:
Wow. What a relief! Da Bears better watch out Sunday Night. The younger Steelers will be so pissed off at not playing table-tennis or billiards that they will reign down a fury never before seen on the North shore.
As just another know-nothing fan, I would have thought—oh, I don’t know—minimal blocking competence from a young offensive line full of 1st- and 2nd-round draft picks might keep their excellent defense off the field for 35:00 minutes a game…
…Thereby making more first downs and thereby putting the defense and special teams in a better position to win…
Alas, it isn’t just the players…Members of the media who cover teams accustomed to winning, who up and lose two poorly played games, are sometimes unaware that their minds have also been sexually violated.
Here is the lead from this a recent article by the usually superb Steelers beat writer, Ed Bouchette:
The Steelers will do anything to avoid 0-3, and that means doing things Sunday night that they have not yet done, not used much or not done very well.
Most of that will occur on offense, where their 19 points are third fewest in the NFL, and which coach Mike Tomlin made the scapegoat for their winless record.
Scapegoat the Steelers offense?
It’s like scapegoating Hitler for causing WWII.
Any objective viewing of Pittsburgh’s first two games convinces most Steelers fans that a marginally effective offense scoring 20 points a game quite possibly gives the Steelers two victories.
Neither the Titans’ nor Bengals’ defense dominated their game against the Steelers. Almost every single time Pittsburgh made a big play—or a big play was there to be made—a pass was overthrown or dropped, a catch was fumbled, or a flag was thrown.
Exactly what awful offensive football teams say after losing.
What else can they say?
Of course, the players and the media who covers the Steelers are not the only ones acting like zombies with holes in their heads caused by the mindf#@k of losing…
Steelers fans are pulling two, sometime, three condoms out of their ear-holes—at work, in the super market, even during church.
It’s really very sad.
Unfortunately, some Steelers fans are plugging their head-holes with what can only be described as some kind of cold cement of stupidity.
These are the fans who insist Mike Tomlin has never produced as a head coach, doesn’t know what he’s doing, or got the job because of the Rooney Rule…
A careful analysis of too many of these idiots reveals an unspoken dislike for the color of Coach Tomlin’s skin…
Talk about losers.
WEEK THREE PICKS
WEEKLY TALLY: 10 – 6
OVERALL 17 – 14 – 1 = .531
SPECIALS: 4 – 3 – 1
Bovada Account = +7.97
A note on Bovoda.com…Don’t expect the money total each week to correspond to my pick tally. The first rule in betting against-the-spread is: it doesn’t matter how many bets you win, it’s how much you bet on each game.
Last week, I figured Tampa Bay was hosting a Saints team with Sean Payton back, with the Bucs in seeming disarray, woefully inconsistent, and ripe for the taking. I put the bulk of my allotted weekly stake on that game and lost. The piddling bets I put on the fifteen other games couldn’t make up the difference.
In a given week, if I feel super strong about a bet, I may put some relatively huge dough on it and call it the Big Bet of the Week—if it doesn’t already correspond to the Lock of the Week.
GAIRZO AGAINST CBS
2012 saw us best five of the eight experts over at CBS.com. Last week, our 10 – 6 mark was as good as J. Eisenberg and Pete Prisco; Mr.Eisenberg barely exceeds our winning percentage because he’s working off a different line for his picks.
This being early in the year, things can change quickly, so we’ll endeavor to stay humble and keep picking winners.
UPSET SPECIAL 1 – 0 – 1
Buffalo Bills (1 – 1) @ New York Jets (1 – 1) –3
The Jets have impressed me defensively…And, I hate to say it, but if I were playing for Rex Ryan, I’d love the guy. The Airplanes could very well be leading the AFC East if not for the ups and downs of Geno Smith.
In fact, E.J. Manuel is the decisive factor in this game. He’s smart, careful with the football and getting better each week.
Geno Smith can’t come close to making that claim.
BILLS 26, JETS 21
But wait…There’s more…The 15.5 points the Gangsters are giving the Raiders against the Broncos at Mile High is just too damn tempting…So let’s show some ‘nads and parlay the Bills upsetting the Jets with Da Raidas covering a gargantuan spread against the Wild Horses in Denver.
Terelle Pryor brings some life to the Oakland offense and the defense has shown up during the season’s first two weeks.
We’re double dippin’, baby!
***UPSET SPECIAL TWO GAME PARLAY***
BILLS 26, JETS 21…BRONCOS 34, RAIDERS 24
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 0
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals +3
Aaron Rogers is putting pass after pass in places where only his receivers can catch them—and now he has a running game with bruising rookie Eddie Lacy out of ‘Bama.
Unfortunately, the Packer defense sucks goat ears, and Ben Roethlisberger missed at least four wide-open receivers last week at Paul Brown stadium. Cincy is a good team, but their defense has yet to show its claws.
I know it’s risky to pick against a home dog, but Aaron Rogers might be on his way to a record-breaking year.
PACKERS 30, BENGALS 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK 0 – 2
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings –7
Obviously, we wouldn’t pick this special if we didn’t believe one team had compelling advantages over the other.
New England and New Orleans both won straight up but failed to cover and hurt us badly in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. We were as “sure” on those two picks as we are this week, believing the Vikings should have an easy time with the Browns.
Of course, Cleveland execs will deny it, even to their wives, but they have chalked up 2013 as a transitional year, and, via the trade of Trent Richardson to the Colts for a first rounder, the Browns are hoping to stockpile enough offensive draft picks to expect significant improvement in 2014.
Such a mindset—again, nobody in Cleveland will admit it—has to plinko down to the players who know their only legit offensive threat was traded.
We are going to pony up significant cash on this action.
VIKINGS 27, BROWNS 16
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 1 – 1
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans -3 (43.5)
Phillip Rivers might have his mojo back if his performance last week against Philly was real—and his Week 1 stats against the vaunted Texans defense weren’t too bad either.
Stir in an underperforming Charger defense, a slowly maturing Jake Locker, the always unpredictable Chris Johnson, and we have a simmering cauldron of touchdowns for the Nashville faithful to gaze upon.
Take the Over and don’t look back.
CHARGERS 27, TITANS 24
As usual, my picks are in italic below…
NFL Lines For Week 3 – 9/19 – 9/23, 2013
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|9/19 8:25 ET||At Philadelphia||-3 W||Kansas City||50.5|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At Tennessee||-3 O/U||San Diego||44|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At Minnesota||-7 LW||Cleveland||41|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At New England||-7||Tampa Bay||43.5|
|9/22 1:00 ET||Houston||-3||At Baltimore||45|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At Dallas||-4||St. Louis||47.5|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-7||Arizona||49|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At Washington||-1||Detroit||49|
|9/22 1:00 ET||Green Bay||-3 GW||At Cincinnati||50|
|9/22 1:00 ET||At NY Giants||-2||Carolina||47|
|9/22 4:05 ET||At Miami||-3||Atlanta||44.5|
|9/22 4:25 ET||At San Francisco||-10||Indianapolis||47|
|9/22 4:25 ET||At Seattle||-19||Jacksonville||41|
|9/22 4:25 ET||At NY Jets||-3 US||Buffalo||38.5|
|9/22 8:30 ET||Chicago||-3||At Pittsburgh||40.5|
Monday Night Football Line
|9/23 8:40 ET||At Denver||-15.5 USP||Oakland||49.5|
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