2012 NFL Week 9 Picks – FootballSunday, November 4, 2012 8:36
Game picks for the 2012 NFL season Week 9.
NFL Week 9
Week 9 Picks
Last Week: 6 – 8 = .428
Overall Tally: 50 – 66 – 2 = .431
Specials: 17 – 14 – 1 = .548
In case you are wondering, last week, I was in so much of a hurry I didn’t correctly mark all my Special tallies and there may have been some confusion as to my record in the 2012 NFL campaign, overall, and on my Best Bets.
Unfortunately, that meant I was compelled to review what is fast becoming a banner year for personal ineptitude as a handicapper.
All of the my numbers are now accurate and up to date, so let’s restart as we head into the second half of the season.
Another bad overall score in Week 8, but the silver lining was my first 4 – 0 week on the Specials, bringing me to a respectable 55% clip on the year–meaning, at least on the games I would bet on, I’d be about even on the year–if I had the gonads to actually bet real American money. We’ll save real wagering for when it counts the most: in the playoffs. Right now indulge my need to review a 4 – 0 Specials Week…
If you click back to my commentary on last week’s games, I was startlingly accurate on all four Specials–I know, I was shocked, too. (Go ahead, take a gander, it’s not like you’ll have to do it on a weekly basis.)
Given this week’s slate of games, I’m only picking Specials because I have to. Not one game gives me confidence on a Special level–but let’s dive in and see what we can bring up from the muck.
GAME OF THE WEEK (2 – 6)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants –3
You either believe the Giants will come together in a spirit of communal solidarity and play inspired football, or Big Blue can’t help but be distracted by the awful aftermath of a destructive mega-storm.
I was leaning toward the “let’s win one for the Big Apple” conclusion until I read most of the Giants players were without power since Sandy came ashore.
I don’t know about you, but in my brain, my wife and kids shivering in the dark would take precedence over whether or not I run a precise route or wrap-up when I tackle Big Ben.
No matter the outcome, the Steelers will fly back home still not getting any respect from the media as a legitimate contender. If they win, even decisively, the Steelers will have beaten a distracted team. If they lose to the World Champs, Pittsburgh will, yet again, be dismissed as old, slow, and done.
If you want to see old slow and getting well done, look at the Ratbirds–they make a much stronger case for the best example of a quickly aging defense.
Don’t look now, but the Steelers’ younger defensive players are standing out.
Third year CB Keenan Lewis has led the team in passes defended in the last month. If he could intercept eminently catchable balls, Pittsburgh would have at least one more victory.
Youngster defensive ends Cameron Heyward and Ziggy Hood have helped the rush defense to 9th best in the league–and second- and third-year linebackers Jason Worlids, Chris Carter and Stevenson Sylvester have manned the field as James Harrison, and Lamarr Woodley have started to recover from injuries.
If the Steelers catch a little bit of luck and Troy Polamalu comes back from a balky calf muscle, this “old and slow” defense might end the year as the league’s best–and gROWing younger all the time.
Right now, they’ll have to settle for second best behind the mighty Texans.
Pittsburgh will need a good defensive effort because Eli Manning–much like Big Ben–never gets love for being in the top tier of NFL signal-callers. The younger Manning can rightly be called the Jekyll and Hyde of NFL QBs. He can flat-out stink for three quarters, then morph into some kind of fiend and win games in the final quarter like very few before him.
These teams are coached by two of the game’s best. I don’t think the tragedy that was Sandy will be a factor. I do think Pittsburgh will have more success running the ball and win on a last second field goal.
STEELERS 23, GIANTS 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK (5 – 3)
Chicago Bars @ Tennessee Titans +3.5
The only game on the board remotely resembling a lock–Chris Johnson will see a real defense like he did in Pittsburgh and won’t have the benefit of a blocked punt or other turnovers to keep his team in the game.
The Titans are starting to point fingers and that means they could be ripe for a rout.
DA BEARS 29, DA TITANS 10
UPSET SPECIAL (5 – 3)
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts –2
Ryan Tannehill’s surprising rookie campaign performance has proven a lot of doubters wrong about Joe Philbin and his very quiet style. These Dolphins are a tenacious bunch, but Tannehill is hurting and might not play.
The Colts have the youngest team in the league, but they play smart football. Pittsburgh fans might grimace, but Bruce Arians has done a great job (3 – 1) since taking the helm from Chuck Pagano, who seems to be on the rebound from an unfortunate leukemia diagnosis.
We think that the home dog will take a bite out of the Fish and that Andrew Luck throws for 280 and two.
COLTS 27, DOLPHINS 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK (5 – 2 – 1)
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks –4.5 (38.5)
We like Pete Carroll’s Hawks in this one and the public likes the over. If the total does land over the number it will be due to the special teams. Both these squads excel on kick returns, and the Vikings are a threat whenever special teams are on the field.
Several trends favor the over and that’s why bettors laid down the money, but I’m thinking Seattle’s defense will hit the field knowing if they stymie Adrian Petersen they can hold the Norsemen to 13 points or less.
Good thing–I don’t think Seattle will score too many more.
SEAHAWKS 20, VIKINGS 13
As usual, my picks are in italic below
NFL Lines For Week 9 – NFL Football Line Week Nine
NFL Line 11/4 – 11/5, 2012
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|11/4 1:00 ET||Denver||-4||At Cincinnati||47.5|
|11/4 1:00 ET||At Green Bay||-10||Arizona||43.5|
|11/4 1:00 ET||Miami||-2||At Indianapolis US||43|
|11/4 1:00 ET||Baltimore||-3.5||At Cleveland||42.5|
|11/4 1:00 ET||At Houston||-10||Buffalo||48|
|11/4 1:00 ET||At Washington||-3||Carolina||47.5|
|11/4 1:00 ET||Detroit||-4.5||At Jacksonville||44|
|11/4 1:00 ET||Chicago LW||-3.5||At Tennessee||43.5|
|11/4 4:05 ET||At Seattle O/U||-4.5||Minnesota||38.5|
|11/4 4:05 ET||At Oakland||-1.5||Tampa Bay||46.5|
|11/4 4:25 ET||At NY Giants||-3||Pittsburgh GW||47.5|
|11/4 8:30 ET||At Atlanta||-3.5||Dallas||47.5|
Monday Night Football Line
|11/5 8:40 ET||At New Orleans||-3||Philadelphia||52|
Bye Weeks: New England, NY Jets, San Francisco, St. Louis
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