2012 NFL Week 6 Picks FootballSunday, October 14, 2012 8:14
Game picks for the 2012 NFL season Week 6.
NFL Week 6
Armstrong Just Another Common Cheater
Yeah, I know, I was supposed to finish yet another rant on what a back stabbing prick and utter disgrace to the legal profession Roger Goodell is.
One thing about good ol’ Goodell, he’s predictable. This week, he’ll do something stupid or ridiculous to make proving those points much easier.
I hope that makes the wait more bearable.
Sorry, but this post isn’t even about football.
It could easily have become just another “gloat column”, meaning I brag righteously about commentary I posted that, miracle of miracles, shows I was right about something.
17 months ago, I ranted on about all the smoke swirling over Lance Armstrong’s head as proof positive that the once iconic cycling champion’s cancer was not confined to his testicles.
The cancer of competitive obsession had, I surmised, metastasized in Armstrong’s soul and imprisoned the seven-time Tour de France winner into the same pantheon of delusion as fellow travelers Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire.
If you are curious, here is the article: http://www.deepintosports.com/2010/05/28/lance-armstrong-performance-enhancing-drugs/
I’m not laughing or saying I told you so…I don’t think it is funny–cheaters, deluded fans, entitled athletes–and it was too easy predicting Lance Armstrong would crash and burn like so many charred and damaged liars before him.
Truth is, in my mind, even as I was writing that post, knowing my facts were straight and my analysis fair and logical, I…I…
I wanted so badly to be wrong…
It was like a kid throwing stones at a squirrel on a fence post and, deep down, hoping he would miss.
When the stone finds its mark, it can change perspective forever…
Consider that a confession…and this too: Part of my life’s journey has been trying to define what I believe in.
To their credit, my mom and dad tried to make me believe in something.
I went to a Catholic grade school where nuns tried–and by their accounts, failed–to thrash the devil from my soul, by spanking my ass with a paddle the Parish priest fashioned from a chunk of wood.
From then on, call me crazy; I always had disdain for organized religion.
For a while I believed in the principles this country was founded on. Then I studied American history…slavery, genocide, religious fanaticism, assassinations, Nixon, neocons, corporate takeover of the media, the idiocy of Bush, the hypocrisy of Obama…
The politicians we must bear responsibility for electing are too often stupid or corrupt–and more often, both.
Cables, satellite signals, and the airwaves are so full of lies you can almost feel the sludge of mendacity oozing from your flat-panel like some insidious syrup.
Our economic system is at the mercy of people who justify greed with lies–and politicians all too eager to maintain that status quo.
During the last twelve years, the Supreme Court ruled that not counting every vote was supported in the Constitution and judged American corporations who give American jobs to sweatshop workers in Asia are entitled to the same rights as flesh and blood American citizens.
For me, the dilemma then is what can reasonable, thoughtful, responsible people believe in?
We can’t believe in Gods created by men.
We can’t believe in a government forged with money from an anonymous few.
We can’t believe in a “system” that denies at least some degree of responsibility to our fellow human beings.
Yet neither can we succumb to the anarchy of nihilism; if you believe in nothing, you have nothing.
And you really can’t “believe” in your cell phone, no matter how cool it might be.
These were thoughts swimming in my head–along with a little vodka–as I watched Michelle Obama’s speech at the Democratic convention.
My wife laughed when I asked what she would say about me in such a forum.
A couple weeks later, I watched my wife prepping for work before embarking on her daily 1:15 minute commute. She looked so pretty.
Later in the week, I spoke to my sisters–the younger spends her days managing crises for the psychologically challenged (I call them whack-jobs)–the other has worked at the DOJ for 35 years (more whack-jobs).
Just the other day, my wife, not normally a crier, teared up during one of those ASPCA ads with the leg-casted kitten and the shitzu with one eye.
As I hugged her it hit me–what I still believe in….
Except for the three or four who tossed my heart into a wood-chipper of agony, women have been the only truly dependable entities in my life. Most have an endless capacity for compassion; they have protected me (mostly from myself), loved me and taught me how to be what I should be.
Don’t get me wrong, woman are indecipherable creatures who all carry a portable wood-chipper that rears its relentless blades every 28 days, but that’s a small price to pay for the comfort of spiritual balance.
I’m kind of thinking our buddy, Lance Armstrong, would not admit to humanity’s–or his own–debt to women.
Believe me, if I had not read this article…
…This post may never have made it to paper…
Week 6 Picks
I guess there is no appropriate segue from that strange little non-sports sports editorial, so I’ll just get right into my weekly–or is it weakly–NFL picks against the spread…
It woefully weak, folks…
Last Week: 7 – 7
Overall: 27 – 34 – 2 = .442
Specials: 6 – 10 – 1 = .375 (Details Below, includes Thursday’s LOW)
Just can’t find the footing. I’m picking a lot of winners but on the wrong side of the number(s).
Take the Thursday Nighter. In any analysis, the Steelers are a superior team to the Titans.
- A blocked punt…
- A quarterback sack–either QB…
- A dropped interception…
- A missed tackle…
If the Steelers turn one of those negative plays into a positive they win and cover.
Of course, any losing team in a close game can point to 3 or 4 plays that would have turned the tide to their shore. In a league where the talent is so evenly distributed, you have to credit opponents for making the plays that need to be made or for making the kick instead of watching it fall a yard shy.
This weekend’s slate of games is a perfect example of the handicapper’s dilemma: only two games have a point spread above 4.5, only four total over 45.5, and only two come in under 44, which means 9 out of 13 games are barely a field goal apart and have an average number.
In effect, even the skilled handicapper is making a guess informed by often convoluted trends, tendencies or statistics.
A perfect example was my first pick for the Upset Special–Oakland over the Falcons with 9.5 in hand. Atlanta is one of the worst teams after a winning streak of two or three games and the Raiders have yet–even in their win against the Steelers–played up to their talent level. The 9.5 are tempting but Atlanta has only lost 3 games in the last three years to teams with a losing record.
The smart play is Atlanta giving the 9.5; but would it surprise you if Da Raidas won by 13?
LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 3
The Steelers broke my heart Thursday Night losing another game by letting Matt Hasselback and the Titans look like Tom Brady and the Pats. The Black & Gold needs to step up on defense or it might be a longer year than it should be.
GAME OF THE WEEK 0 – 5
Green Bay @ Houston – 3.5
By far, my worst showing on any Special in my three years handicapping. In my defense, it is the only Special where I have to pick a marquis game like San Fran vs the G-Men or the Houston/Green Bay tilt. That means I usually have two quality teams with a small spread and medium number.
This week, I do see the Texans as superior in the trenches and on the ground to the visiting Packers. Arian Foster should have a fun day–and the Texans defense will torture Aaron Rogers.
TEXANS 27, PACKERS 22
OVER UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 1 – 1
Dallas @ Baltimore –3 (44)
The Cowboys defense is not as good as some pundits think. Their only quality game was against the G-Men in Week 1–since then the ‘Boys are –7 in the turnover department. The Ravens offense is finding its stride with Ray Rice and Joe “Cool” Flacco who were on the hot seat in a 9-6 yawner victory over KC a week ago.
Therein lies the difference in these two franchises. Most non-AFC North fans couldn’t tell you who owns the Rat Eating Scavengers and they’ve been a perennial contender in the league. Every NFL fan knows who drives the clown car that is the Cowboys organization and despite all Jerry Jones’ money, mouth and bluster, Dallas hasn’t been relevant as a football team in 17 years.
Dallas will need a lot more than one field goal in this one.
RAVENS 30, COWBOYS 16
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 2
New York Giants @ San Francisco – 6.5
I’m lovin’ Big Blue and 6.5 against the Gold Miners in San Fran. The 49ers have picked on the bad half of the AFC East and NFC North while running up a 4 – 1 record. I love their talent and tenacity on defense, but I don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Giants.
Alex Smith has a lot more to prove he is worthy of all the love Jim Harbaugh gives him.
GIANTS 24, NINERS 21
As usual, my picks are below in italic:
NFL Lines For Week 6 – 10/14 – 10/15, 2012
|10/14 1:00 ET||Cincinnati||-2.5||At Cleveland||43|
|10/14 1:00 ET||At NY Jets||-3.5||Indianapolis||44|
|10/14 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-4||Kansas City||40.5|
|10/14 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-9.5||Oakland||48.5|
|10/14 1:00 ET||At Baltimore O/U||-3||Dallas||44|
|10/14 1:00 ET||At Philadelphia||-3.5||Detroit||47.5|
|10/14 1:00 ET||At Miami||-4.5||St. Louis||38|
|10/14 4:05 ET||New England||-3.5||At Seattle||44|
|10/14 4:05 ET||At Arizona||-4||Buffalo||44|
|10/14 4:25 ET||At Washington||-2||Minnesota||45.5|
|10/14 4:25 ET||At San Francisco||-6.5 US||NY Giants||45.5|
|10/14 8:30 ET||At Houston GW||-3.5||Green Bay||47.5|
Monday Night Football Line
|10/15 8:40 ET||At San Diego||PK||Denver||49|
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