2012 NFL Week 5 Picks FootballSunday, October 7, 2012 7:56
Game picks for the 2012 NFL season Week 5.
NFL Week 5
Sometimes it is wiser not to ask a question when the answer requires a clearer look at yourself.
I was going over another dreadful week of NFL picks and trying to find humor out of my extraordinary incompetence. Divining my dismal percentages, I came upon a puzzlement of numbers. I went 7 – 8 for Week 4 yet my overall percentage went up.
Before all you know-it-alls start e-mailing me the reason why, please understand, I can balance my checkbooks–business and personal; figure out a restaurant tip in my head, almost to the penny; I’ve done my own taxes since I was in college; and I’ve memorized most of my credit card numbers.
Numbers bore me, though. Irony, hypocrisy, a good story, a dynamic character, satire, wit–those stimulate my mind.
The only reason I graduated high school on time was because my Algebra 2 teacher, Mrs. Opsatnik cut me a break…
“Mr. Porpora, you have not done the minimal amount of quality work to think about passing my class…”
“I really hate Algebra, I’ll never care what 2x does to Y over Z squared. I will never apply that to anything in my life–but you were a great teacher, Mrs. O…”
“I could hold you back, which you would no doubt rebel against and I can’t have you disrupting my class for another year…Your redeeming quality is–in over 20 years of teaching, no student has made me laugh as hard as you have…In my estimation, that quality alone bumps your failing grade from a horrid .6 “E” to an abysmal .66 “D-”…I’ll see you at graduation…”
Well, I had to give her a hug and tore off down the hallway whooping like a mad crane…
All that was written to explain to my readers why any math problem in my universe is immediately redirected toward my oldest son, Michael, who spent a summer studying double calculus–which, at the time, I first thought might be a form of arthritis.
I was silently happy because Michael, at first, seemed stumped that my overall percentage tally had risen even though I had still had a 7-8 week picking ATS.
Big bad Mr. Double Calculus…
It wasn’t 45 seconds before he walked into the room…”The reason your percentage went up is because you didn’t have as bad a Week Four as you did Weeks 1 & 3…”
“–You didn’t quite suck as bad last week as you did the three previous weeks.”
Obviously he got his brains from his mother and his smart-ass attitude from me.
NFL Week 5 Picks
Let’s examine the tally…
Week 4: 7 – 8
Overall: 27 – 34 – 2 = .442
Specials Overall: 6 – 9 – 1 = .400
This week, we are going to take the “Costanza Approach.” I pick the exact opposite of how I analyze the match-ups.
In past years we’ve waited until late in the season, but this year, desperation and panic have set in much earlier in the season…
GAME OF THE WEEK 0 – 4
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
History intersects with Destiny and New Orleans rides a Cool Brees into the NFL record books as soon as the Holy Men QB tosses a touchdown pass to one lucky receiver. That flick of Brees’ wrist will surpass a record that has stood since 1960 set by the unbelievably great John Unitas.
Forget records, trends, and tendencies. This one is personal…
Let’s compare and contrast, shall we? Courtesy of Sirius radio’s Adam Schein, this unflattering portrait of Drew Brees–the perfect example of the contemporary athlete:
With that example of the modern day athletic ego fresh in your skull, Peter King gives us this pass at one John Constantine Unitas:
The Unitas family, through son Joe, sent a classy letter to Brees this week, wishing him well as he plays to break the record.
“The way Dad was,” said Joe Unitas from his home in Las Vegas, “he felt records were made to be broken. I remember his saying once about this, ‘I didn’t know I was setting any record, and I didn’t care. All I cared about was “Did we win the game?”‘”
“Dad never talked a lot about his football days. I learned mostly when someone came to interview him. I remember standing off to the side when HBO and NFL Films came to interview him, listening to every word. He just wasn’t caught up in his football life. I remember literally he cleaned out the house once and had all his old football trophies out by the trash in a big box, and Mom had to go out there and get them before they were thrown away.”
I don’t believe the Bolts have the defensive talent to stop Brees from making history. Against an inevitable tide of history and every trend that says New Orleans is a lock–and in honor of a legend named John Unitas–I’m hoping the Chargers knock Brees into Mardi Gras land and win outright.
CHARGERS 33, SAINTS 23
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 2 – 1 – 1
Cleveland Browns @ NY Giants (– 8.5) (44)
The last few years the G-Men have had what could be called a frightening ATS tendency to play down to an opponent with a losing record or to simply awful teams like the Browns, posting a statistically significant–and lowly–5 – 11 mark against such inferior opponents. Add to that trend a combined 3 – 10 mark against bad defensive squads and mistake prone teams and it’s looking like a sure bet for Cleveland to cover.
That bet and the OVER looks even sweeter considering Josh Cribbs returns to the gridiron this week after recovering from a concussion.
The psychologies of these two teams are trending in opposite directions also. Cleveland gave Baltimore all they could handle last week. Brandon Weeden threw for 320 yards against the once vaunted Ravens defense, who have clearly been surpassed by their offensive brethren as the team’s premiere unit. New York lost a heart breaker as a last ditch 54-yard field goal fell three yards short of the crossbar on Sunday night in Philly.
Cleveland finding themselves on offense…Josh Cribbs returning…the Giants beginning to question themselves…the smart handicapper is almost compelled to take the Brownies and the 8.5 points, and parlay the over for the big money.
Exactly why we are taking the G-Men and the Under for our Weekly Special.
GIANTS 24, BROWNS 14
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 2
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (– 6)
Denver played a brutal opening four-game schedule and have been in every game. Some say they should be 4 – 0. The Broncos gassed Pittsburgh at Mile High in Week 1 then lost close ones to Atlanta and Houston before blowing the Black Hole to bits last week.
Peyton Manning is back, folks, and the big question for Patriots fans…Can their 20th ranked defense stop Manning–who synchs up more with his receivers every week–and a rejuvenated Willis McGahee, who has overcome early career injuries to be the punishing back everyone projected him to be?
Manning knows he has to send a message to the rest of the league: the wobbly passes, the inconsistency, are a matter of “rust”. The new look Broncos will find a way to buck trends because a timely, stifling defense will spur the Broncos to upset another elite NFL team.
It just won’t be this week against the Patriots.
PATRIOTS 41, BRONCOS 20
THE UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 2
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (– 3)
After a horribly played and coached Week 1 game against division rival Baltimore, the Bengals have recovered nicely, winning closely played contests against the Native Americans and cross-state rival Cleveland, then thrashing the Speckled Cats in South Florida last week.
The Bengals have more offensive talent this year than the Fish have had in the last decade. Andy Dalton will become elite soon–sooner if the running game, led by Ben Jarvis-Green–Ellis, kicks in the way head coach, Marvin Lewis insists it will.
Miami–their secondary depleted, and with the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL–will be chasing stud, sophomore receiver A.J. Green all over Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals–leading the league in sacks and boasting the NFL’s best-rated 4th quarter QB, Andy Dalton, (151.7)–should have a field day against the over-matched Dolphins defense.
Seriously, this could be a legit LOW…
We like the Fish to win outright.
MIAMI 22, CINCINNATI 17
As usual my entire slate of picks can be found below in italic…
NFL Lines For Week 5 – 10/7 – 10/8, 2012
|10/7 1:00 ET||Atlanta||-3||At Washington||51.5|
|10/7 1:00 ET||At Pittsburgh||-3.5||Philadelphia||43|
|10/7 1:00 ET||Green Bay||-7||At Indianapolis||48|
|10/7 1:00 ET||At NY Giants||-8.5 O/U||Cleveland||43.5|
|10/7 4:25 ET||At Minnesota||-5.5||Tennessee||44|
|10/7 1:00 ET||At Cincinnati||-3 US||Miami||45|
|10/7 1:00 ET||Baltimore||-6.5||At Kansas City||47|
|10/7 4:05 ET||At Carolina||-3||Seattle||42.5|
|10/7 4:05 ET||Chicago||-5.5||At Jacksonville||40.5|
|10/7 4:25 ET||At New England||-6.5 LW||Denver||52|
|10/7 4:25 ET||At San Francisco||-10||Buffalo||45|
|10/7 8:30 ET||At New Orleans GW||-3.5||San Diego||53|
Monday Night Football Line
|10/8 8:35 ET||Houston||-8||At NY Jets||41|
Bye Weeks: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay
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