2012 NFL Week 4 Picks FootballSunday, September 30, 2012 8:02
Game picks for the 2012 NFL season Week 4.
NFL Week 4
NFL Week 4 Picks
After three weeks of 16 game slates, we find our selves dribbling on the rim of wretchedness when it comes to picking against the Vegas oddsmakers. In years past, we could always point to our Specials tally as our saving grace. That net is starting to tatter as we enter the quarter pole of the 2012 NFL campaign.
Here is the tale of the shameful tape:
Week Three: 6 – 10
Overall: 20 – 26 – 2 = .434
Specials Overall: 5 – 6 – 1 = .454
No excuses here, folks…our efforts have simply not been good enough. We can only keep saying there is a lot of football yet to be played.
GAME OF THE WEEK 0 – 3
Last week the Rat Birds ruined my Sunday Night when they failed to cover against the Patriots. The Baltimore knife was further twisted into my back when that field goal barely stayed inside the upright. I already lost the money as the Ravens went up a full game against my Steelers.
This week we will get off the schneid on this Special because we think the Cowboys will score a late touchdown to pull away from Da Bears in the Palace that Jerry built. This is the kind of game that explains why Gairzo will never play fantasy football. I will never root for the Cowboys to win, even if I have money on them.
I make the call based on the frustrating inconsistency of Chicago, which will be missing a healthy Matt Forte, and must bear the awful play and leadership miscues of Jay Cutler.
The Dallas defense also is a factor. 1st-round CB prodigy Morris Claiborne looks pretty smooth on right corner for the ‘Boys, and Sean Lee is all over the field, playing like one of the top five linebackers in the NFL.
However, Dallas has yet to play an offensively talented team, unless you count the Week 1 trouncing the ‘Boys laid on Eli in the land of the Giants.
The Cowboy defense still has a lot to prove.
Bears fans can pin their hopes on Dallas’s poor Special Teams performance during the last three weeks and the Bears always potent return game–that could make yours truly 0 – 4 on this Special.
I’m willing to take that risk.
COWBOYS 26, BEARS 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 1 – 1 – 1
We think 47.5 is too high a number for the Sunday Nighter as the G-Men slip out of the Big Apple and head down to Cheese Steak Central to take on the division rival Eagles.
These teams recently trend to the under and both teams are hurting pretty significantly. New York will play with a banged up David Dielh, Ahmad Bradhaw, Hakeem Nicks, and WR Dominick Hixon.
The Bald Birds are led by Michael Vick, who is starting to look and play as if he is in pain. I’ll repeat what I’ve said before about Vick–on an American professional football field, he is a small, fragile man who believes his skill set can save him from head-crashing collisions with other men who outweigh him by 70—100 pounds.
Someone–I don’t know, perhaps a coach–should tell Mr. Vick the difference between fantasy and reality.
The reality of this game shows us a tight division match-up between long time rivals. There are no secrets between these teams. Big Blue knows Vick will be shoving the rock into Shady McCoy’s gut and the Giants will look for rookie David Wilson to showcase his rushing skills.
New York and Philly know each other like the Hatfields know the McCoys. More often than not that means a close-to-the-vest contest dominated by the defenses, and decided by 3 – 6 points
GIANTS 23, EAGLES 21
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 1
Lots of choices for this Week 4 Special. We think the Striped Cats will handle their spotted counterparts in Jacksonville but the Jags can surprise even a good team like Cincy. We can also see the Pack bitch-slapping the Holy Men all over Lambeau Field. The Tundra faithful are still looking for justice after what they believe was a Monday Night grand theft by a flock of hideous looking lime-green Seahawks. The thing is, the Packers aren’t as good as they think, and as long as New Orleans is led by Saint Drew, there is always a chance for a miracle.
It’s a different story in Arizona. The Cardinals whipped the Eagles, Seahawks, and Patriots with what looks to be a stifling defense and–with a great return game–solid special teams.
You wouldn’t know the Cards were 3 – 0, and I’m pretty sure that’s quite alright with head coach Ken Whisenhut who played the ‘nobody respects us’ card like Hendrix did his Stratocaster during his run as OC of the Steelers.
The Dolphins will be overwhelmed by the NFL’s best pass rush, and Matt Moore is going to watch Patrick Peterson return a pick six.
The Fish fry in the desert…
CARDINALS 23, DOLPHINS 13
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 0
Right now I give the Texans props as the best AFC team going, thanks to a great defense, along with Matt Schaub blossoming as a franchise quarterback. (Isn’t it funny how franchise quarterbacks blossom at just about the same time a defense jells after several solid drafts and star free-agent signings, and with a healthy offensive line, solid coaching, and a hands-off-the–football operations owner?…Well, I think it’s funny…)
Anyway, before we give the Texans any trophy, let’s admit beating Denver, Miami, and the Jaguars does not open the gates to the ’60s Packers or early ’90s Cowboys neighborhoods.
Let’s also remember Tennessee has won 10 of 14 straight up against Houston…5 of 7 straight up in Houston.
Division game, two teams that don’t like each other, and a history of close battles says 12 points is way too much to give even to a disappointing Titans squad. I don’t think Tennessee has the horses to finish the legit upset, but I have a feeling the Texans will be thanking their Lucky Lone Stars to escape with a victory.
TEXANS 24, TITANS 20
As usual my entire slate of picks can be found below in italic…
NFL Lines For Week 4 – 9/30 – 10/1, 2012
√W BROWNS COVER RAVENS
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|9/30 1:00 ET||New England||-4||At Buffalo||49.5|
|9/30 1:00 ET||At Detroit||-4||Minnesota||48.5|
|9/30 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-7||Carolina||48.5|
|9/30 1:00 ET||San Francisco||-4.5||At NY Jets||41|
|9/30 1:00 ET||San Diego||-1.5||At Kansas City||44.5|
|9/30 1:00 ET||At Houston US||-12||Tennessee||44.5|
|9/30 1:00 ET||Seattle||-3||At St. Louis||39|
|9/30 4:05 ET||At Arizona LW||-5||Miami||40.5|
|9/30 4:05 ET||At Denver||-7||Oakland||48.5|
|9/30 4:05 ET||Cincinnati||-1||At Jacksonville||44.5|
|9/30 4:25 ET||At Green Bay||-7.5||New Orleans||53.5|
|9/30 4:25 ET||At Tampa Bay||-2||Washington||47.5|
|9/30 8:30 ET||At Philadelphia||-2.5 O/U||NY Giants||47.5|
Monday Night Football Line
|10/1 8:35 ET||At Dallas GW||-3.5||Chicago||42|
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