AFC Championship & NFC Championship Picks – NFL

AFC Championship & NFL Championship predictions and game analysis.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP PICK AND ANALYSIS

JETS STILL A MIRAGE?

Being a Pittsburgh fan, I’ve seen Rex Ryan work his defensive magic twice a year for much of the last decade. His schemes utilize coverages, formations, and attack plans from the “46″ defense devised by his dad, Buddy Ryan.

The West Coast offense was, in large part, created to exploit the 46’s reliance on unbalanced alignment to the weak side (opposite the tight end), forcing the other side of the offense’s formation to block man. The alignment itself confused offenses in that it blew up the pulling guard’s assignments and the pass blocking angles of the other linemen.

The theory was to have at least one more guy rushing/attacking the line than the offense could block. The 46 scheme was based on unrelenting pressure–creating havoc on every play.

The 46’s weakness, in its first incarnation under Ryan, was its reliance on the defense’s front seven–often eight or nine–to be within just three or four yards of the line of scrimmage, making it vulnerable to a quick slant or a tight end hitch route on the strong side. In effect, the 46 freed the tight end as a receiver, and, once teams readjusted their blocking schemes, a strong-side trap play could create a huge hole and a long run.

That’s why after 1985, the elder Ryan’s defense didn’t endure–it is too risky and, if you don’t have the right personnel, it can be a disaster. It is also part of the reason why the tight ends after 1985 became prized for their pass-catching ability as much as their blocking skills.

Rex’s ‘09 Jets’ defense blends his dad’s attacking strategy with the unique assignments found in the Fire Zone or “Zone Blitz” defense created by Dick LeBeau in the ’90s. LeBeau’s base formation employs four linebackers in a balanced formation. The strategy is identical: always send one more defender than the offense can block or–in LeBeau’s system–make them believe your defense will.

Deception is the key. The thinking is that if you show the quarterback who is blitzing, you drop other personnel into the zone(s) vacated by the blitzer(s). For example, the QB reads safety blitz and checks a short pattern to the hot receiver in the slot. Instead of rushing, the defensive end drops into coverage–where a linebacker would normally be–and tips or picks the pass.

The Jets defeated the Chargers by making Phillip Rivers believe there would be relentless pressure all day.

It was a mirage.

Gang Green disguised their defense superbly and ended up mostly rushing just four people. Add a timely safety or corner blitz later in the game and you have the big reason why we saw another classic Jets’ upset.

INDY HAS TO PROVE IT

The Colts, not the Jets, come into this game with the bigger chip on their shoulder, a greater sense of urgency, and damn near all the pressure.

The Jets could be blown out and they and their fans can rightly consider their season a rousing success.

Indy could lose by a point on a horrible call that negates a game-clinching field goal and their season will be considered a failure.

Three times since 1999 the Colts squandered a number one or number two seed. Each time they rested their starters to “get ready for the playoffs.” Each time they lost before reaching the Super Bowl.

They repeated the same strategy this season, eschewing a shot at an undefeated season and hoping to nurse players for a potential Super Bowl run.

What’s the definition of insanity, again?

PEYTON’S PLACE

I confess, I had to do a little research to refresh my memory on the basics of Buddy Ryan’s “46″ defense and where it fit in the cyclical nature of NFL defensive strategy.

Peyton Manning won’t need to do research. He’s memorized and conceived a way to thwart every possible blitz combination Dick LeBeau and any Ryan ever conceived.

The Jets won’t fool Manning. There’s only one way to beat him (Pittsburgh, New England, and San Diego have proven it): commit to a high intensity blitz and man it up in the secondary.

Look for Austin Collie and Darrel Clark to have huge days and Lito Sheppard a long one.

And don’t for one sec fall for Ryan’s hokey, “How are we gonnna stop Peyton?” snippet fool you. You can find it here:

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/21134540/vp/34973932#34963125

I don’t think Rex intends to blitz as much as he lets on; he might be outsmarting himself.

RUNNING ON EMPTY

The Colts’ last place finish in rushing offense is a result of not having to run the ball because of Manning’s talent and because Indy’s team–especially their offensive line–is relatively undersized, but very fast.

To stop Shonn Green and Thomas Jones, the Colts–24th in rush defense–have to commit that extra safety to the run and dare Mark Sanchez to beat them.

As I reread my own analysis, it seems the Jets’ best running attack should control the clock against the Colts’ porous run defense. It appears–given their two playoff wins–the Jets have the defensive horses to torture Manning into a couple of ill-timed picks.

Then again, the Jets have shown that they are vulnerable against the run, despite having the league’s 8th best rush defense. Remember, Cincy ran all over them.

Given the Colts’ inability to run, the game is on Manning’s right shoulder.

New York has also shown that they can give up a lot of yards to a good quarterback; they surrendered 300 to Rivers in the game last Sunday.

And, don’t forget, Mark Sanchez is a rookie who might make a fatal mistake.

Might be a close one and that’s the direction I was going until I read this little nugget from the AP:

(Full article here, brackets mine: http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/s_663260.html

Since 2005, Manning has gone head-to-head with Ryan [as Ravens' defensive coordinator] five times, completing 82 of 132 pass attempts for 1,136 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Manning is 4-1 in those games — the only loss coming in December after Manning left with a 15-10 lead.

Case closed.

Colts 27
Jets 13

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PICK AND ANALYSIS

NFC SHOOTOUT ANOTHER MIRAGE

Over in the NFC, there is more firepower in this championship game than we saw the night Baghdad was lit up. The Vikings’ offense has transformed into some kind of lethal people mower, chopping supposedly accomplished defenses into mulch.

It all comes back to Brett Favre–which is just the way he wants it. We still wonder how Favre’s ego can fit into an 80,000 seat domed stadium. Somehow he manages the feat–which is no less amazing than his consistency, accuracy and ball security at the tender age of forty.

Did I mention the howitzer attached to his right shoulder?

Receivers still complain Favre throws the ball too hard. Defensive coordinators marvel at how he can still scramble, extend plays and make the big plays when he has to do so.

The most surprising part of Favre’s unique game is his season-long ball security and his efficiency. The all-time great is 15th in pass attempts, 8th in total yards and yards/game, and second in touchdowns and fewest interceptions–a stark contrast from his recent late season and play-off meltdowns every pundit interpreted as the surest sign the first ballot Hall-of-Famer’s career was over.

How can we explain Favre’s re-resurrection from a retired old man with a bicep injury, Peter Pan complex, and infamous ego, back into the peerless field general who rewrites the record book with almost every throw? Is it the same ego that made sure the NFL’s off-season spotlight remained on its owner, publicly dissed his head coach, and has now brought his team within one game of a Super Bowl Championship?

Of course it is, and Favre should write a book on the value of self-confidence and the rewards of believing in oneself when the world says otherwise.

In that book, Number 4 should thank God for a friend and coach like Brad Childress, who risked his head-coaching career by bringing the former Packer to the Vikings and managing Favre’s mega-ego through some difficult moments in a long season.

“Chilly’s” belief in his team and their potential is the reason for Favre’s success. Childress knew the quarterback’s questionable decision making of the last few years resulted from him believing he alone had to win the game or save a season. With Adrian Petersen, Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice, along with a solid offensive line and the 6th best defense in the NFL, the Vikings should systematically throttle the Saints–at least according to conventional wisdom.

That conventional wisdom says Favre is willing his team to Miami the way Michael Jordan willed his Bulls to be great.

Favre has the look of a man possessed with singular focus and blessed with an arsenal of talent. His Vikings took the field against a white hot Cowboys team and beat them by 31 points.

This week, the Norsemen travel to New Orleans and face a Saints squad with the 26th ranked defense in the league. They Holy Men gave up over a hundred yards rushing to Arizona, one of the league’s worst teams at running the ball.

The conventional wisdom says that this will be a Vikings victory by at least 28 points andthat Brett Favre will remake his legend yet again.

…Except I’m not conventional and I have no wisdom.

I know, I know, it’s hard to believe, given my usual brilliance, but I’m picking the Saints, anyway.

New Orleans has the talent to match everything the Vikes will throw at them, but I don’t think the game will be a 51-45 shootout.

I think the defenses will come up big, and Gregg Williams has key people who’ve been out much of the year–Bobby McCray, Jabari Greer, and Darren Sharper–healthy for this game.

Early this year, as the Saint offense was revving up, the defense was winning games until injuries took a toll–and the offense started averaging 40+ points a game.

THE DOME FACTOR

Offensively, both teams bring the heat. The defensive edge rests with the Vikings. New Orleans gets a slight nod on special teams, although both squads are capable of busting a game-changing return.

I think one key to the Saints’ winning comes from the Superdome home-field advantage. Even Favre’s ego won’t be able to drown out a crowd starving for something wonderful and hoping to eradicate decades of futility.

While the crowd noise will help the home team, the bigger question is how difficult will the din make it for Favre to audible and improvise at the line? If you recall, Favre’s audibles were at the heart of the mid-season dust-up with Chilly. The controversy reflected badly on Favre as a player and his coach as a leader.

On Sunday, for the first time, all season, Number 4 will have to trust his coach to call an effective game.

I don’t think his ego will let him.

Saints 35
Vikings 27

Here are the lines:

NFL Lines – AFC & NFC Conference Championship Games

In both the divisional and wild card round I managed a .500 record, but the Chargers and Pats failed to justify my two Locks of the Week and only the Cowboys made me look smart with their wild card upset of the Eagles.

I will count both championship games and the Super Bowl as Specialty Picks. Here are my numbers with three games left…

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog
1/24 3:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-8	NY Jets
1/24 6:40 ET	At New Orleans	-3.5	Minnesota

 

WEEK 17: 8 – 8
Regular Season Totals: 123 – 128 – 5 = .481
Specialty picks were my salvation. My overall Regular Season Trifecta tally…
36 – 11 – 1 = .750

Wild Card Round
2-2 overall
Specialty Picks
1 – 1

Divisional Round
2-2 overall
Specialty Picks
0 – 2

Total after Wild Card and Divisional Rounds
127 – 132 – 5 Overall
37-14-1 Specialty Picks

• January 16, 2010 -- NFL Divisional Round Playoff Games (3)
• January 8, 2010 -- Wild Card Playoff Games – NFL Football (7)
• January 1, 2010 -- Week 17 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (4)
• December 25, 2009 -- Week 16 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (1)
• December 20, 2009 -- Christmas Gifts for Athletes (3)