Wild Card Playoff Games – NFL Football
Friday, January 8, 2010 19:36
NFL Wild Card playoff game predictions and game analysis.
PICKING UP THE PIECES
What fun it’s been for me to write this weekly column for DIS. I didn’t do too bad, breaking a little under the waterline of wagering. One horrendous week (14) kept me from .500, leaving me with a very pedestrian 48% of my picks on the right side of the board.
Basically, you would have lost the juice the bookies drink and a little more if you had gone to the sportsbook and bet every game as I called them. Here’s the breakdown for the last two weeks:
WEEK 16: 10 – 6
AFTER WEEK 16: 115 – 120 – 5
WEEK 17: 8 – 8
Regular Season Totals: 123 – 128 – 5
Specialty picks were my salvation. My overall Trifecta tally going into Week 16…
33 – 11 – 1
You would have won significant dinero sports betting my specialty picks–the Upset and Lock of the Week–and stayed away from my Sucker’s Bets of the week.
I guess the conclusion is I had slightly better than a break-even year.
Last week’s results prove the point.
I was right locking in Atlanta to beat the Bills and with New England to play a desperate Houston team tough. I have my problems with Belichick, but in terms of playing to win, I don’t recall his teams ever tanking it. His players–even those at the bottom of the depth chart–always know what the game plan is and how to defeat the opponent at hand.
Take a minute and explore the mindset of a successful NFL coach by checking this out:
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/21134540/vp/34749259#34735290
The only difference between Belichick and Chuck Noll is the legendary Steeler coach would have stopped the exchange with a glare rumored to have turned more than one questioner to stone.
Contrast Belichick’s single-minded focus with this verbal buffoonery courtesy of Rex Ryan:
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/21134540/vp/34749259#34734845
Uh, Rex, can you e-mail your crack dealer’s corner address and refrigerator box number? I gotta get me some of what you’re smokin’!
Let’s take the long and arduous hike from Rexington to Realityville…
Your guys played like a .500 team in the regular season. You thrashed the teams you should have thrashed, played teams at your level closely, but lost five close games to non play-off teams. Your offensive line is the league’s best and, statistically, so is your defense. However, your schedule was soft and the AFC East was weaker than usual given the injuries to Brady and quarterback problems in Buffalo and Miami.
Your “leagues best defense” is a mirage, Rex. Last week, Cincinnati folded like a rickety chaise lounge from the first snap, and a fortnight ago, Peyton Manning was up by a touchdown when the Colts put in third stringers.
Your team better win, Coach, or you are going to look awfully silly.
WILD CARD EXACTA
All play-off games are sucker’s bets. They are hard to pick because the spreads are so thin. We’ll keep our Specialty Picks to the Upset and Lock of the Week.
Philadelphia was our Super Bowl dark horse from November on, but they were crushed this past week, playing as if it were no big deal trekking back to “Jerryworld” to face a talent-laden Cowboy team fed up with hearing about not having won a play-off tilt in eleven years.
I can’t figure out what Andy Reid was thinking–or is Dallas really that good?
Please God, say it ain’t so! If I have to watch Jerry Jones’s mannequin face for an extended play-off run, I may have to start watching the NBA.
Please, God, no…
The most likely scenario is Philadelphia can’t be that bad nor Dallas that good. What we have left is the ‘Boys talent vs. Philadelphia’s experience.
Talent wins out.
DALLAS 31
PHILADELPHIA 23
We can apply the same analysis to the Jets’ visit to Cincy. A young Jets team with a great running game against Carson Palmer, who is tired of being told he’s an underachiever.
The obvious strategy Marvin Lewis can implement involves stacking the box against Thomas Jones and make Mark Sanchez beat his Cats.
The best Rex Ryan can hope for is a full crack pipe.
BENGALS 17
JETS 10
Both games should be great theater because rational analysts can reasonably make a case for polar opposite outcomes.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
There really isn’t a lock on the slate. But I have to agree with Ray Lewis and believe Brady might be playing a little possum with his injuries. No one is better at distracting the enemy with injury talk than Belichick.
While it is true the Rat Birds made a lot of mistakes and were undisciplined in a narrow loss to the Pats in Week 4, what else do you expect from the Ravens? Stupid penalties and untimely mistakes undid them against Pittsburgh a few weeks back. In fact, that has been their year-long calling card.
Nowhere does that faulty play cost you more than it does in New England in January. When you add in that Baltimore hasn’t won in Gillette Stadium and Brady has never lost a home playoff game…
Lock and load…
NEW ENGLAND 31
BALTIMORE 21
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Arizona hosts the suddenly hot Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The Cards’ key people are nursing significant injuries, Dominic Rogers Cromartie and Anquan Boldin to name a couple. And don’t discount the injuries to fullback Dan Kreider (neck) and Sean Morey (concussion). Morey is a special teams demon whose absence could make the Cardinals vulnerable to a game-changing return.
Aaron Rodgers’s stellar play this season has vindicated the Packers’ decision to let Brett Favre escape Green Bay. He’s accurate and smart and has more athletic ability than most people realize. No one is going to be surprised by the Cardinals this year, least of all Rodgers and the Pack.
Take Green Bay and the point–you won’t need it.
GREEN BAY 34
ARIZONA 20
As usual my picks are in bold italics…
NFL Lines Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games
NFL Game Lines 1/9 – 1/10, 2010
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 1/9 4:30 ET | At Cincinnati | -2.5 | NY Jets | 34 |
| 1/9 8:00 ET | At Dallas | -4 | Philadelphia | 45 |
| 1/10 1:00 ET | At New England | -3.5 | Baltimore | 43 |
| 1/10 4:40 ET | At Arizona | -1 | Green Bay | 47.5 |
7 Responses to “Wild Card Playoff Games – NFL Football”
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Nate Barlow
says:
January 9th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
Couldn't agree with these picks more, including Lock of the Week and Upset of the Week.
Gairzo
says:
January 10th, 2010 at 5:17 am
Okay, the Jets won. How long will it be before some pundit calls Ryan a genius?
Won't be me, that's for sure. Great league leading defenses don't give up, what, 180 yards on the ground. The Steelers, maybe the Texans would mop the Jets and Bengals off the turf.
But, hey, Ryan backed it up and it'll be a great story.
I think the two best teams in the league play next week. The Chargers are a close third. Also, the team nobody is talking about, NE, three time Super Bowl winner. They are flying under the radar.
I bet BB has let his guys know that.
Nate Barlow
says:
January 10th, 2010 at 6:32 am
I feel the Texans were worthy of a playoff berth and are better than some of the teams in the post-season. Just a little too inconsistent.
I expected more of the Bengals.
Three team battle between NE, SD and Indy… seen that before, haven't we? It could be SD's year, but any of these three are capable.
Gairzo
says:
January 11th, 2010 at 7:09 am
Wow, what do I know?
First Baltimore slaps around New England like a red-headed step child and then Green Bay and Arizona play no defense whatsoever.
Only the Cowboys kept Gairzo from a Wild Card goose egg.
One observation…Including the perennial defensive leaders–Steelers, Ravens, Pats, Eagles–I do not remember a year when NFL defenses looked so awful. Cedric Benson 170 yards–and the Jets' defense is supposed to be the best the league has to offer?
Nate Barlow
says:
January 11th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
Quality defense is down dramatically. There are a lot of contributing factors:
1. Stricter and more penalties. While I understand the need for player safety, the new rules have the side effect of deterring aggressive defense for the fear of being hit with a 15-yard personal foul call (and some of the new rules I disagree with, such as all face masks being personal fouls; I know that changing the rule eliminated a judgement call, but inadvertent face masks do not deserve 15 yards).
2. The NFL believes that the fans want to see offense, so it pushes that side of the game. It's equivalent to MLB being hung up on the home run ball. And while the passing moron fan's eyes light up only at scoring, the true devotee understands and appreciates the other side of the ball (what true baseball fan wouldn't rather see a no-hitter than a slugfest?).
3. Defensive players and defensive play are simply not as good as they have been. This is partly, I believe, luck of the draw–every sport goes through offensive and defensive phases and periods where stars emerge on either side–but the NFL's overemphasis on offense has a ripple effect throughout every level of the sport and the best of the best want to be on offense. How shocking was it that a defensive player was a finalist for the Heisman? It's great that Suh was, but we have become so accustomed to the accolades going to offensive players that it stood out that a defensive player was a finalist. It shouldn't be that way.
Gairzo
says:
January 12th, 2010 at 1:45 am
Agreed.
'Nother factor might be OCs catching up with the intricacies of the 3-4 Fire Zone or Zone Blitz schemes and that's why more teams are going back to what I call the Tampon Two defense which was the defense first conceived in Pittsburgh–that every OC got to know after the Steel Curtain, then the league cycled back to the 3-4…
Now you've got people thinking Rex Ryan is going to bring back his dad's "46" The Chargers will have Rivers do the three step drop and have the ball out before the Jets get him. The 46 and Buddy Ryan are the most overrated formation in the game's history. I give them credit for the novelty and riding the wave to the Super Bowl, but Bill Walsh, among others, made it obsolete in a very short time.
Roger and the Boys better watch out that they're making a mockery of the game
Nate Barlow
says:
January 12th, 2010 at 2:04 am
Rivers should eat them alive. With his collection of receivers, LT & Sproles coming out of the backfield and Gates, all he needs to do is hit those quick slants and crossing routes. If you have a QB who can deliver (and he can) and the people who can catch the ball (the Chargers do), they're almost impossible to defend.
(That's been the Patriots' bread-and-butter for years, even more so since they picked up Welker, and it was easy to see how they suffered without that receiver in the game against the Ravens.)
Even if the D bears down on the slot receiver and the backs, it opens up the deep threat. Rivers will then have plenty of time to hit Jackson and Floyd.
By the way, we never announced our December Tampy. I believe it should go to the Indianapolis Colts for passing on the opportunity to make history and thumbing their nose at it. To be fair, it probably should just go to their coaching staff, front office and ownership–Peyton obviously wanted to play, and I'm sure most of the other players felt the same way he did.