Week 17 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football

Gairzo rounds out the NFL’s regular season with his Week 17 picks and rails upon the injustice of playoff teams rolling over “to rest their players”.

NFL 2009 – LOOKING BACK

We’ve come to Week 17 of the ‘09 NFL campaign and it’s time to look back at mine and Murray Dunnosquatis’ preview column and see if we knew what we were talking about.

The short answer is “no”. You can find the original column here:

http://www.deepintosports.com/2009/09/07/nfl-football-2009-season-predictions-pittsburgh-steelers-dallas-cowboys-super-bowl/

Here is a sampling of our prognostication prowess:

MD argues any NFC East Beast would run away from the other divisions in that conference. In fact, there are really only three quality NFC teams outside the East: Atlanta, Chicago, and Carolina.

Ouch!

We go on to question Philadelphia and Minnesota’s decisions to bring back Vick and Favre, respectively. We correctly tout Green Bay as the conference sleeper and insist the Cardinals will fold like an accordion:

The NFC’s most disappointing team will be the Cardinals. Kurt Warner will be older and more injury prone. The defense is unproven and the running game mediocre. Arizona will sneak up on no team this year.

You have to admit, I “sound” like I know what I’m talking about.

Murray’s NFC division champs:

Dallas San Francisco Da Bears Da Birds (Falcons)

Wild Cards

New York Giants Carolina Panthers

The ‘Boys best the G-Men for the NFC crown.

So, my only hope of saving face in the NFC is if the Cowboys win the conference? I can never, will never, root for that outcome, but they have weapons on both sides of the ball–legitimate contenders.

Things got decidedly better when I tried to figure out the AFC… A few snippets:

With Bart Scott’s defection to the Big Apple, and Rex Ryan now a Jet-setter, look for the Ravens to be more vulnerable on defense… The Black Birdies of Baltimore will be in the hunt, however… San Diego has a talented team capable of achieving greatness–even with Norv Turner as head coach… The punch Tom cable threw at an assistant coach might be unmatched by any pass a Raider QB throws all year…

The Chiefs and Bills also get a nomination for the Off Season’s WTF Award. “Let me see, if I fire my OC a week before the season begins that will insure a Lombardi trophy, right?”… The Colts can still be a high hurdle for teams to get over in January… Chad Pennington is more fragile than Bill Parcell’s ego. Teams will be ready for the Fish this year… The only AFC club that may deserve “sleeper” status is the Jets. Rex Ryan has brought back the energy Mangini sucked out of the Meadowlands…

There were still some notable misfires:

… MD and I also feel safe in welcoming Denver to the conference basement. When you fire a Mike Shanahan, then hire a young coach who trades the best arm in the league and alienates the team’s most talented wide receiver, you get what you deserve. Murray just doesn’t think the Ravens, the Bolts, or the Colts have the chops match up with the Pats, Titans and defending champs, Pittsburgh…and the “Wild Cat” will be obsolete before November…

Our AFC picks…

Division Champs:

Pittsburgh New England San Diego Tennessee

Wild Cards:

The Jets The Colts

Pittsburgh will slap New England in the AFC Championship game.

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh 30 Dallas 16

So, I guess, all told, we hit about 50%…

WEEK 16 ANALYSIS

THROW IN THE TOWEL? TERRIBLE!

I hope Roger Goodell firmly grasps the NFL has a problem. When the league’s best teams roll over in the last 2-4 weeks of the season to rest players or get ready for the playoffs, the fans are cheated. Has anyone noticed ticket prices lately? End zone seats are 75.00 bucks for games minimum.

Besides disrespecting history, Jim Irsay, Bill Polian, and Jim Caldwell disgraced the game last week. Since Indianapolis had clinched the playoffs two weeks ago and hadn’t already pulled their starters, the Colts’ “we are just trying to stay healthy” mantra is classic corporate bullshit.

So, Peyton might twist a knee in Week 16 but not Week 14? In the first half, but not the second?

Really?

ONE SOLUTION

For the last quarter of the season, the NFL should establish a point value for games played after teams clinch a division title or are locked into a play-off seed.

The goal is to let teams know that said lock can be cut open if need be.

First, some basic rules:

1. 100 VALUE POINTS (VPs) = ONE GAME; 25 points = ONE QUARTER.
2. No VPs can be subtracted before week 13. However…
3. If a team wants to rest players in any regular season game they can do so–but they must offer fans the next seasons’ corresponding regular season game at pre-season prices that were in effect three years prior to the season in question. (That would end the practice immediately.)
4. If any team accumulates a 100 or more (-) VPs they must offer at least one game to fans at the above discounted rates.
5. This penalty would be in addition to any (-) VPs teams would lose for platy-off seeding purposes.
6. Games will decrease in VPs as the season winds down.
7. Any team having negative VPs ending the season tied with a team not subject to (-) VPs, loses any and all tiebreakers to that team.
8. Any team faking or embellishing injuries will face a 100 (-) VP penalty.
9. An Integrity Committee of executives from the other conference will determine if and when the clinching team is “tanking a game”.
10. Teams shall be given the benefit of the doubt in all Integrity Committee deliberations.

To clarify, if any team is ahead, for example, 35-3 at the half of any regular season game and puts subs in, no “Value Points” are in play. They are giving back-ups valuable playing time without jeopardizing their record or “giving” the opponent an unearned victory.

Nothing should be given to any team in pro football.

Let’s use the 2009 Colts as our example…

Indy clinched at 11-0. Game 12 would be off the table for negative VPs–but, if they tanked that game, or any game, they would owe fans tickets to one of next of the following years games at three year-old rates.

The ‘09 Colts 13th game would have a potential value of (-) 400; their 14th, (-) 300; 15th, (-) 200; 16th, (-) 100)

The above configuration insures teams pay a huge price for tanking earlier (game 13), than later, (game 16.). Also, while it does penalize teams who give opponents an unearned victory at any time, it does offer superior teams who have dominated opponents a chance to rest players (tank games or parts of games) if they can afford the (-) VPs.

For example, last week the Colts would have been docked half, (100), of game 15’s potential 200 total value points. Why? Because they were ahead and pulled their starters in the third quarter for non-game related reasons, i.e. injury.

Remember each 100 (-) VPS = ONE GAME.

Therefore, the Colt’s would, begin game 16, with ONE GAME docked from their record for playoff seeding purposes.

All signs point to them tanking game 16 against Buffalo which would cost them another 100 (-) VPs.

(Of course if this solution was implemented, the Colts would have played last week to win, and, in game 16, would probably play starters until halftime and thus be assured of home field advantage throughout. If the Colts would subsequently lose that game 16 by putting in unprepared players, they would only be docked (-) 50 VPs–not enough to be threatened by any rival.

But, to flesh out our example, let’s say the season ends with the Chargers losing, ending with a 12-4 record, and the Colts tanking game 16 to go 14-2.

The Colts, however, would be docked 200 negative Value Points.

For the purposes of play-off seeding only, the Colts record would now be 12-4. This ties them with the Chargers who would win all tiebreakers and therefore receive home field throughout.

The beauty of this system is that no organization would want to let the league take a home playoff game away. I can’t see any true competitors risking league action and jeopardizing playoff seeding.

It works because if it had been in place this year–and assuming San Diego ends up at 13-3–the Colts could still tank game 16 after the 1st quarter, eminently more acceptable than letting two borderline playoff teams score unearned victories, thus keeping better teams out of the post-season.

Something has to be done.

SLIM PICKIN’S

After the catastrophe of Week 15, the Gairzo rebounded with a respectable showing last week, including two of three Trifecta picks. Murray and I might be right about Favre and the Vikings nose-diving late in the year–and where has Jay Cutler been all year?

AFTER WEEK 14: 104 – 100 – 4

WEEK 15: 1-14-1

AFTER WEEK 15: 105 – 114 – 5

WEEK 15: 10 – 6

AFTER WEEK 15: 115 – 120 – 5

WEEKLY TRIFECTA

I’ve been picking lights out with my Trifecta all year. I slipped only in Week 14, losing two of three picks. I lost only two Suckers-BOWs all year. It’s pretty much a no=lose pick, but I’ve been right a lot more often than not.

My overall Trifecta tally going into week 16…

33 – 11 – 1

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Last week, the Falcons cashed in the Bills and got no competition in return. The Buccaneers pirated the souls from the Saints–yes, Virginia, Drew Brees is human. Tampa played and won their Super Bowl, they’ll play this week like it’s a Pro Bowl; Atlanta won’t. Falcons win big–real big.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Disgraceful, we have to pick games based on superior teams allowing lesser opponents to claim unearned victory. For the record, I think the Ravens and Broncos deserve a playoff berth before Pittsburgh does (by a very slim margin). The Jets don’t belong in the Pizza Hut Bowl and, if the Texans are given an unearned victory, neither do they.

I’m banking on the Pats not rolling over. I’m sure Belichick will pull his big guns, but the players he puts on the field are always prepared and do NE proud. Look at Brady 8 years ago, Matt Cassel… at least the Pats will stay close.

SUCKERS BET OF THE WEEK

Take your pick. Peyton Manning could have nixed the Colts decision to roll over, but he didn’t. I’ll never root for the Colts this year and they’ve always been a personal favorite.

NFL Lines For Week 17 – 1/3, 2010

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
1/3 1:00 ET	At Buffalo	-8.5	Indianapolis	35.5
1/3 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-7	New Orleans	Off
1/3 1:00 ET	At Cleveland	-1	Jacksonville	35.5
1/3 4:15 ET	At Dallas	-3	Philadelphia	47
1/3 1:00 ET	Chicago	-3	At Detroit	45
1/3 1:00 ET	At Houston	-8	New England	46
1/3 1:00 ET	Pittsburgh	-3	At Miami	45.5
1/3 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-9	NY Giants	47.5
1/3 8:20 ET	At NY Jets	-10	Cincinnati	35
1/3 1:00 ET	San Francisco	-7	At St. Louis	40.5
1/3 1:00 ET	Atlanta	-2.5	At Tampa Bay	41.5
1/3 4:15 ET	At Arizona	-3.5	Green Bay	44.5
1/3 4:15 ET	At Denver	-12.5	Kansas City	38
1/3 4:15 ET	Baltimore	-10.5	At Oakland	38
1/3 4:15 ET	At San Diego	-4	Washington	39
1/3 4:15 ET	Tennessee	-4.5	At Seattle	44.5

• December 25, 2009 -- Week 16 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (1)
• December 20, 2009 -- Christmas Gifts for Athletes (3)
• December 12, 2009 -- Week 14 Picks And Analysis (1)
• December 5, 2009 -- NFL Week 13 Picks and Analysis (0)
• November 28, 2009 -- NFL Week 12 Picks and Analysis (0)