December Tampy Noms

The Yuletide month is becoming prime dime for Tampy nominations. So far, we have nominated…

• Patriot beat writers for letting Bill Belichick off the hook for quitting during the Saints’ smack down of the Pats. After 9/11 gutless journalism has been the norm. Still, no excuse.
• Belichick also deserves a nom for waving the white flag when he pulled Brady out, down by 21 with 5:00 to go. Also for the double standard he shows his team, sending four tardy players home because they were late for morning practices or meetings. These were grown men driving through a blizzard. Treating them like children will not make your team better. Contrast that overly strict standard with Randy Moss’ laziness of late–especially in Sunday’s close contest with Carolina. BB not only allowed Moss to continue to play, but PFT recently reported Belichick gushed about how much respect he has for Moss.
• Moss gets a Tampy nom for acting like a prepubescent brat.
• Steelers’ coach, Mike Tomlin is a worthy candidate. If you say you’re going to “unleash hell” in December, you might be well advised to tell your players, at least, specifically what that term means. More dedication to the run? Harder practices? Also, if you threaten to sit starters if necessary to prove a point and then not follow through, you do your team a disservice–and put your credibility at risk. Too many NFL coaches are like too many of today’s parents–more interested in being their child’s twitter buddy and not teaching them the value of discipline, accountability, and the word “NO”.

OTHER NFL NOTES

• The Super Bowl I’d love to see? Eagles vs. Bolts. I’m a big McNabb fan and Andy Reid has been through hell with family problems; it’d be nice to see the Green Birds win a ring. Norv Turner is another resilient guy who has the Chargers playing on the Saints and Colts level.
• Jim Caldwell is letting the “should we play all out debate” dominate the talk in Indy. Can it seep into the locker room and onto the field? C’mon Jimbo, be a leader. “We play to win every game we play and that won’t change.” That’s it. Don’t comment further. Every year, the issue crops up in Indy and–like the Cowboys’ December swoon –the Colts’ short play-off run becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.
• Speaking of Dallas, since the Steeler suck so bad, I have to find other pleasures during my Sundays with NFL Sunday Ticket. Is there any more satisfying picture than watching Jerry Jones’ plastic face melt when the Cowboys are losing?

No, there is not. It gets even better when they lose at “Jerryworld”.

BREAKING DOWN THE STEELER BREAKDOWN

Pittsburgh’s collapse has the Steel City all a twitter. Special teams have directly cost the Steelers four games, but I don’t buy that the defense has been much weaker this year. The stats belie that facile analysis.

In the NFL you have 8-12 possessions a game. A coach can reasonably expect his team to score 4-6 times a game–a range of 12-42 points per game.

THE BEST: New Orleans = 35.8/PPG

THE WORST: St. Louis = 11.2/PPG

AVERAGE OFFENSIVE OUTPUT = 21-27 PPG

It stands to reason that if a team holds their opponent to under 20 PPG they will win most of their games. The Steelers have done that more consistently than any other team for the last 40 years–and they’re doing it again this year, ranking fourth in total defense and giving up only 19 points per game.

No, they are not as efficient at stopping teams on third down, but a lot of good teams aren’t and still win.

I looked at five random years since 1970. Of all the stats the league keeps, the most crucial–the stat that most accurately defines a good or bad team–seems to be turnovers. I thought total defense or stopping opponents on third down would be major, but more than any other number the league tracks, a team’s turnover ratio–the team taking the ball away the most and turning it over the least–is the most relevant determinate of wins and losses.

When you add to Pittsburgh’s awful -5 turnover ratio the kick/punt return yardage and scores the Steelers have allowed–recognizing that a return for a touchdown is, in effect, a turnover as well as a dramatic game changer–the Great Collapse of ‘09 becomes less mysterious.

Stats can be found here: http://www.nfl.com/stats/team

The reason for the Steeler collapse can’t be explained using only statistics. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-gazette believes the Steeler defense has hit a wall based on the ages of the players:

Here are the ages next year of some starting defenders: Casey Hampton, 33; Brett Keisel, 32; Aaron Smith, 34; James Farrior, 35; James Harrison, 32; Ike Taylor, 30; Ryan Clark, 31. And the ages of their top replacements: Tyrone Carter, 34; Deshea Townsend, 35; Travis Kirschke, 36; Chris Hoke, 34; Nick Eason, 30.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09347/1020571-66.stm#ixzz0ZiakZ9Ih

As thin as that wall may be, it could explain the short distance between winning six games by a total of 22 points as Pittsburgh did in ‘08–not including the Super Bowl nail-biter–versus losing seven games by a total of 28 points this year.

THURSDAY PICK

If you talk about playing not to win, the odds of your team losing increase exponentially. The Jaguars are playing for all the marbles; the Colts are playing not to get hurt. Take the Cats and the field goal.

I’ll post my completed pick sheet before Sunday’s kick-off.

• February 6, 2010 -- Super Bowl XLIV Saints vs Colts – NFL Football (1)
• October 16, 2009 -- Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0)
• September 7, 2009 -- NFL 2009 – MD in Da House (3)
• May 8, 2010 -- Sports Bright: Bill Noethlich Minnesota Vikings – NFL (0)
• January 31, 2010 -- Pro Bowl Before the Super Bowl – NFL Football (2)