NFL Week 11 Picks and Analysis
Friday, November 20, 2009 15:43
GENIUS SCHMENIUS
Ever notice the ridiculous myths that only become “valid” if enough Jockos and Talkos keep repeating them like some cheap infomercial hypnotist?
One of my least favorites is associating the word “Genius” with any football coach.
Here’s the accepted definition of the word: http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_/genius.html
Even if you make the stretch and apply the “somebody with outstanding talent” standard from the first definition, does that mean Michael Phelps is a genius? Adrian Petersen? Roger Clemens?
No!!!
Everybody has some outstanding talent. Was Ron Jeremy a genius because he had a baby’s arm between his legs? I don’t think so. Somewhere on planet earth a one-armed man is walking around wondering why he got shortchanged. Who knows, maybe he murdered a doctor’s wife and has eluded police for 60 years, or maybe he can juggle chain saws. Does that make him a genius?
The definition of genius itself clarifies what it means by “outstanding talent” in the entry’s second definition: exceptional intellectual or creative ability.
Do any of the following moves by NFL coaches exhibit exceptional intellectual or creative ability?
- PITTSBURGH: Fourth quarter, over two minutes to play, Ben brings the Steelers to their 35-yard line needing 7 points to win. Bruce Arians calls three long passes against a Cover Two scheme and a four-man rush that kept Roethlisberger in the pocket and under pressure most of the day. No screens, no rollouts… Four and out. Mike Tomlin did not intervene. Arians said, “We needed big chunks of yardage.” Big Ben covered 30 more yards in 30 less seconds in the final drive of the Super Bowl. Let’s review…
Mozart–who was writing symphonies at age 5–GENIUS!
Coaches Arians & Tomlin – NOT GENIUSES!
- CINCINNATI: Right when you think the Bengals might be ready to ascend the championship mountain, Marvin Lewis signs Larry Johnson. LJ said all the right things at his presser, but why would Lewis risk the chemistry that seems to have brought his team together? Soooo…
William Shakespeare – GENIUS!
Marvin Lewis – NOT A GENIUS!
- NEW ENGLAND: There was some criticism of Bill Belichick’s call to go for two yards from his own 28 with the lead, but much of what you heard sounded like “Well, Coach Belichick has done so much for the game…” or …has won three Super Bowls…” or” “…is a genius–and who are we to second guess him.” (My nomination for the November Golden Tampon goes to every such wimp.)
Albert Einstein – GENIUS!
90% of NFL pundits – NOT GENIUSES! (JUST PUSSIES!)
- First, if the logic on the NE sideline was “we can’t stop these guys” then BB’s call only makes sense if, after failing to get the first, he simply allowed Indy to score on the very next play. Then, Brady has two minutes to gain 50-60 yards for a winning field goal.
Now, that strategy would have been genius and incredibly ballsy.
- As it turned out, the call was utterly stupid. Bellichick risked giving Manning a 30-yard field instead of a 70-yard field. Why? Einstein–or any football coach cannot answer the question.
- By the way, what exactly has Bill Bellichick done for football? His three Super Bowl wins were achieved at least partly because he is a cheater. That is as much a part of his legacy as any thing else he may have “done for the game.” Conclusion…
Stephen Hawking – IQ above 200 – GENIUS!
Bill Bellichick – NOT A GENIUS!
There are (or may have been) NFL coaches who, if tested, might really be geniuses. There is not one in the league’s 85-year history who is a genius because of his football knowledge. It ain’t rocket science, folks. It’s controlled warfare defined by a four-inch thick rulebook. For every offense, there is a defense to thwart it–and every defense has its weaknesses. Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Chuck Noll, or Bill Walsh had HOF rosters.
Without great players, most coaches ultimately look pretty dumb.
RANDOM OBSERVATIONS
- Can our society be any more lame? Halfway though the season the, “Can the achieve the perfect season?” articles and commentary are permeating the media. Ask any athlete or coach of any sport what is more important, a perfect regular season or a championship ring. Peyton Manning’s Colts go 10-0 every year. He has one Super Bowl ring. New Orleans has won two playoff games in 45 years. They will play one elite team this year when they host New England–as the Colts just did. Otherwise, their schedules are not at all impressive.
- For the masochists out there who watched MNF… Did you see Mangini all pouty and pissed off on the sideline? His team was an embarrassment. Dick Jauron had one winning season in his eight as a head coach, but his teams never looked pathetic. Does Eric Mangini look like a leader to you? Someone you would want to follow?
- Bengal lovers…Your team beat the world champs twice. The Ohio Cats deserve all the accolades they get. There are seven long games to be played. Then the real season begins. Try not to get cocky.
- After every coach gets canned or is “rumored” to be on the hot seat, Bill Cowher’s name spews from the mouth of every pundit. Don’t these guys read? If John Fox were to get fired, Cowher has made it clear he might be interested in the Panther’s head coaching job–only because he lives near Charlotte. Even then, in every interview since he retired, Cowher has all but directly said he has all the money he needs. He makes a good living doing 3-4 days worth of television work per week. Do you really think he wants to untangle the barbed-wire messes in Cleveland or Washington?
WEEK 11 PICKS
THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
I am going to add the Thursday night NFL game to my specialty picks.
This week we have Dolphins traveling to Carolina to play the Panthers. Normally, this game might be my suckers’ bet of the week because of Carolina’s Jekyll and Hydeishness … But, Ronnie Brown is an IR casualty due to a foot injury. Some of the magic will be gone from the Fish’s “Wildcat.” Give the 3 points and watch Carolina win by 10.
THE WEEKLY TRIFECTA
Through Week 10 I am a lofty 25-4-1 on my specialty plays. Before you bet a million against your wife spending a night with Ron Jeremy, remember, I “give” myself the weekly Suckers Bet unless it turns out to be way beyond the point spread, but, I have picked most correctly, anyway.
My Upset Specials and Locks of the Week have been spot on most of the year.
Last week, against the Vegas bookies, The Gairzo was 9-5-1 with Detroit pushing against the Vikings. Could it be he has uncovered a hidden root to pull himself up from the slimy muck of mediocrity?
With a record of 75-67-2 or 53%, I wouldn’t rent the power washer just yet.
Put another way…
Dr. Jonas Salk – discovered the polio vaccine – GENIUS!
Gary Porpora – NOT A GENIUS!
THE UPSET OF THE WEEK
The Pats have been unimpressive on defending the run all year and were stymied by the Jets in week two. Rex Ryan has a history of giving Brady fits. The Jets are desperate for a win but after last week’s debacle, New England will come out breathing gunfire. As long as Belichick is on the sidelines making crucial decision, the Gang Green can stay within a touchdown. With the best rushing attack in football, the Jets might win it outright.
THE LOCK OF THE WEEK
The Steelers roll into Arrowhead Stadium with a chip on their shoulder pads. They were in great position to win both games against Cincy and couldn’t make the play they needed. Pittsburgh has only one game to lose if they want to stay in the AFC north race; this game won’t be it. The Men of Steel win by 17.
SUCKERS BET OF THE WEEK
Oakland hosts the Striped Cats who are coming off a watershed victory in Pittsburgh. I have a feeling Cincy may have its helmets in the clouds until the fourth quarter. It might not be as easy as the Bengals want it to be. Then again, it could be the Steeler fan inside my heart hoping against hope. Tough one to call, but I think the Raidas will cover.
As always, the weekly lines I use are found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.html
My picks are in bold italics below:
NFL Lines For Week 11 11/19 – 11/23, 2009
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 11/19 8:20 ET | At Carolina | -3 | Miami | 42.5 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | At Detroit | -3.5 | Cleveland | 38.5 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | At Jacksonville | -8.5 | Buffalo | 42.5 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | Pittsburgh | -10 | At Kansas City | 40 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | Indianapolis | -1 | At Baltimore | 44 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | At NY Giants | -6.5 | Atlanta | 46 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | At Green Bay | -6.5 | San Francisco | 42 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | At Minnesota | -10.5 | Seattle | 46 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | At Dallas | -11 | Washington | 41.5 |
| 11/22 1:00 ET | New Orleans | -11.5 | At Tampa Bay | 51 |
| 11/22 4:05 ET | Arizona | -9 | At St. Louis | 47 |
| 11/22 4:15 ET | At New England | -10.5 | NY Jets | 45 |
| 11/22 4:15 ET | Cincinnati | -9.5 | At Oakland | 36 |
| 11/22 4:15 ET | San Diego | -3 | At Denver | Off |
| 11/22 8:20 ET | Philadelphia | -3 | At Chicago | 45 |
Monday Night Football Line
| 11/23 8:35 ET | At Houston | -4.5 | Tennessee | 48 |
8 Responses to “NFL Week 11 Picks and Analysis”
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Nate Barlow
says:
November 20th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
Perhaps your funniest post yet.
I agree that Cincy deserves to be proud–the franchise has come along way. I don't expect a slip against Oakland. Maybe against another week team, but this is Oakland.
I love nominating the so-called pundits for the Tampy. About time they receive such a well-merited award.
I'd be okay if they used the term "football genius", so as not to connect these coaches with actual geniuses.
Gairzo
says:
November 21st, 2009 at 5:30 am
I'm very disappointed in ESPN especially. They cancelled the very realistic series about pro football because it showed players abusing drugs, women, their wives, privileges and drugs–you know, just like in real life.
Now they have so many interview shows that need guests, they're afraid to say anything offensive or confrontational.
The media as a whole is guilty.
Nate Barlow
says:
November 21st, 2009 at 6:07 am
God forbid they show the truth!
The media shoulders the blame for an awful lot, in sports and elsewhere.
Nate Barlow
says:
November 21st, 2009 at 11:02 pm
I was thinking about this today and I thought how easily your genius commentary could be applied to athletes being referred to as heroes. Sports stars are not heroes. People who live in service and risk or even lay down their lives for others or for their country are heroes. The only athletes who are heroes are those who have done that as well. Pat Tillman, Ted Williams, Christy Mathewson… those are athletes who are legitimate heroes.
Gairzo
says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 7:43 am
Well said.
Tom Brady…
Marries a super model, makes miilions playing a game that simulates warfare…
NOT A HERO!
The homeless guy pissing near the dumpster on Los Feliz Blvd.–former Special Forces, who has a Silver Star and Purple Heart stuffed in to his duffle bag–
HERO!
So why do we worship the sports guys?
They do everything we secretly want to do…
The real heros have suffered in ways we cannot imagine and would never want to..
Guess we need the illusion that heroes don't have to suffer.
Secretly, we WANT our children to imitate and emulate the selfishness and narcissism of many modern athletes because it's better than imagining sons and daughters coming home in wheelchairs and addicted to oxycontin.
The Greatest Generation united to fight real evil and terror. Communism paled in comparison, but at least it was a defined enemy in uniforms surrounded by borders.
Now we're fighting a threat. Our rights are trampled in the name of safety. As long as we let the government create our enemies, the wars will continue.
Thank god for Chad Ochocinco.
Nate Barlow
says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Another "sports hero" who is an actual hero, and not from military service: Roberto Clemente.
Thank god for Chad Ochocinco?
Gairzo
says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Said with tongue drilled into cheek.
Pittsburgh cried for a long time after Roberto died.
High School Football Players Saves Bus of Children from Gunwoman | Deep Into Sports says:
November 26th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
[...] to the RSS feed for updates on this topic.Powered by WP Greet BoxConsidering that we recently had a discussion on Deep Into Sports about how ridiculous it is to refer to athletes and/or coaches as geniuses or heroes, this story [...]