NFL Week 10 Picks and Analysis

WEEKEND WITH DAD

When I was a pup, my dad owned a grocery store he opened at 8am and closed at 11pm. My sisters and I got to see him during his mid-day break, which was seldom more than an hour or two every day at dinner. Saturday mornings often found my dad and I at a local diner having breakfast, where he allowed me to order all the food I wanted as long as I ate everything on my plate.

During those weekend mornings with my father, he taught me about life, love and how to survive living in a careless world.

From all the lessons and lectures my dad offered, a couple phrases kept popping up: “Do what’s right,” and “Be careful.”

Of course, for most of my childhood, having gravy on my home fries trumped understanding what life was about. It wasn’t until I turned fourteen I finally asked, “How do I know what’s right and how do I know if I’m being careful?”

“Well, son, if cops aren’t knocking at my door and your mother doesn’t have her foot up your ass, that would probably be a good start.”

Socrates, my father isn’t.

The cops never knocked, but did call to have me picked up one time-okay three or four, five maybe, but that’s not important–and my Mom’s insteps were constantly pounding my rump.

I was destined to learn everything the hard way, and even then…

One time, maybe I was 10, dad took me up to South Bend to watch Notre Dame play Pittsburgh. Don’t remember the score. Can’t tell you who won. I remember Touchdown Jesus high over the stadium and figured if they needed the Lord to help them win games, they didn’t need me as a fan. (Besides, too many nuns had beaten my ass in the preceding five years; I wasn’t about to root for any Catholic institution.)

When I became an adult, and life–to quote Chekov–showed me its claws, my dad became a greater friend and teacher when I needed one the most.

With all the memories of that wonderful childhood, I decided to give my father something special for his 82nd birthday.

I met him in Denver for the Steeler game against the Broncos.

My mom and sisters worried the trip might be too much for him–he has had a by-pass, a mild stroke and lives with type 2 diabetes–so they made us jump through a few hoops before letting us have any fun.

And boy did we have some.

The first order of business was to bawl him out for coming into enemy territory without the proper attire. I offered to let him wear one of the four jerseys I brought with me. He chose the throwback Franco Harris visitor’s jersey my kids got me for Christmas last year–then asked if he could keep it.

I couldn’t say no.

Early Sunday, we drove up to Central City and somehow won about $200.00 playing roulette.

Right before the game, I took him to Hooters where all the lovelies took special care of him–and completely ignored your humble columnist.

“Boy Gar, they sure are nice.”… “Yeah Dad, real nice.”

My Dad goes to church every Sunday. I guarantee he was expecting some kind of Owl motif at Hooters. He really did mean nice as in “pleasant and congenial.” I suggested he get a picture with a couple of the “nicer” girls–then quickly nixed that idea. (I kept envisioning my mother’s face turning ashen and her keeling over after screeching, “My God, Dom, how can you do this to meeeeeeeeeeee.”)

The last time my dad had alcohol was probably a sip of wine at my wedding. Imagine my panic, after absently ordering a couple beers, when the nice girl brought us two giant glass steins only a little smaller than her very ample hooters.

When my dad went to the rest room, I chugged three quarters of his beer and half of mine. The little amount he did drink must have affected him, though. Upon leaving Hooters a few Bronco fans walked in and said before the night was over, we’d be crying. My dad piped back, “That’s okay, you guys’ll be bleeding.”

“Now, Dad, that’s not right. You have to be careful.”

We just smiled at each other, not saying a word until we boarded the shuttle to the stadium.

THE WEEKLY TRIFECTA

How disappointing are the Giants? I watched much of that game while working out and still can’t figure out how the Bolts took that game out of the Blue. However, I called Houston’s near upset almost perfect, as I did the close one between the ‘Boys and Eagles. My Trifecta picks stand at 22-4-1 after nine weeks, meaning I’m picking correctly 85% of the time.

CROOKED LINES

Against the Vegas bookies, The Gairzo was 7-6 last week and continues to tread water at 52% or 66-62. In recent weeks, the lines have been looking blurrier. Some tough calls out there. For example, in the pro game, a seventeen-point spread is highly unusual. Word has it the gangsters are losing money because nobody’s taking the bait on the U-dogs. Could it be because teams like the Raidas, Chiefs, Lions, Bucs, and Rams are literally dog meat, or, perhaps, bettors are finally wising up to the myth that parity is alive and well in the NFL.

THE UPSET OF THE WEEK

In their first AFC North tilt, the Steelers made too many defensive mistakes and were one-dimensional, relying on Big Ben to pull them out of a fire the Men of Steel continuously threw jet fuel on. To their credit, the Bengals hung on to win a hand-wringer at home.

During the last seven weeks, the Bengals discovered Cedric Benson as a true power back, a rejuvenated offensive line coached by Mike Zimmer, and a palpable swagger on defense.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall has been hitting holes faster than a proctologist on cocaine, Troy Polamalu has regained his status as the league’s fastest defensive game changer, and the Steeler D has regained its usual top five ranking.

Last time, we picked the Bengals as four point dogs at home–and we want to believe Cincinnati is for real. This time, each team is significantly improved and the Bengals are seven point doggies. They will cover–if only by a point. Neither team will pull away. Pittsburgh wins on a defensive touchdown–don’t be surprised if it’s in OT.

THE LOCK OF THE WEEK

Talk about dogs. Not a sure thing on the board. But, the Cardinals are starting to look as if they are finally ready to shake off the Super Bowl loss. Seattle has shown nothing special since they went to the Bowl in ‘05. Cardinals by fourteen.

SUCKERS BET OF THE WEEK

I can’t in good conscience call half the board a Suckers Bet. If I have to pick one, I’ll take the Stupor Bowl where Oakland will host KC. Talk about dogs. If these two teams were real canines, the ASPCA would insist on euthanizing them.

Don’t bother watching and don’t waste your money trying to figure out what these two mutts really are.

As always, the weekly lines I use are found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.html

My picks are in bold italics below:

NFL Lines For Week 10 – NFL Line 11/12 – 11/16, 2009

Monday Night Football Line

Bye Weeks: Houston, NY. Giants

• January 1, 2010 -- Week 17 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (4)
• December 25, 2009 -- Week 16 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (1)
• December 20, 2009 -- Christmas Gifts for Athletes (3)
• December 12, 2009 -- Week 14 Picks And Analysis (1)
• December 5, 2009 -- NFL Week 13 Picks and Analysis (0)