NFL Week 6 Picks and Analysis

I was 8-6 in my picks against the gangster’s line last week; bringing your humble Oracle of the Gridiron to the fulcrum of mediocrity at .500.

But on my specialty plays, my Steelers didn’t cover or I would have swept another week’s worth of picks. I correctly called the Bengals to squeak past the Black Birds, and my advice to stay away from the Monday Nighter was right on.

Now that we are well into the meat of the’09 campaign, let’s see what scraps we can gnaw on…

• In this MNF commentary, Mike Tirico, related Bill Parcell’s formula for drafting a QB who can be immediately successful at the professional level. Reminded me why Parcells will be in the HOF someday. He was an over-rated coach, but few can evaluate talent more accurately and consistently than the Tuna.
• The NFL opened up a can of vipers with their new rules bent on protecting the quarterback. We agree with the intent of the rule. The enforcement stinks. A Detroit lineman fell into Big Ben, barely touching him–flag. A Miami defender, after falling, makes an obvious effort to torpedo Mark Sanchez in the knees–no flag. Ridiculous.
• Mark your calendar. Brett Favre will hit his usual wall when the games really count in December and January.
• Denver’s Broncos are the leagues hottest team. We’ll be interested in how young Josh McDaniels handles adversity’s first punch in the nose.
• If Indy’s defense sustains their current level of play, the Colts will be scary.
• How soon will it be before the Raida Nation has Uncle Al committed to a home for the mentally deficient who wear jogging suits?
• The Wildcat offense is a gimmick an NFL defense should quickly solve. It is not the Wildcat that has Miami running for more yards than anyone, it their O-Line. The Fish block the run so well, they could make The “Fumblerooskie” an offensive staple.

THE FIRST GOLDEN TAMPON AWARD – “THE TAMPY”

Yes, the Tampy, a monthly award to honor the NFL player coach, or employee who displays “vaginical tendencies” on or off the field.

We will pick one nominee per week and then choose a winner every month.
After much wrangling, the committee–consisting of me, Mr. Igor Stolichnaya; my Dalmatian/Bulldog, Franky, and my editor–have chosen nominees from the last two weeks.

Week 4 saw Tommy Girl Brady weeping for a flag after having his knee grazed during a pass attempt, and Ray Lewis crying about the call. Brady takes the honors because I could hold my own if it came down to a fight. Ray-Ray would break my arm off and use it as a toothpick.

Last week, Dre Bly, blessed with 4.4 speed intercepts a pass while his 49ers trail the Falcons 35-10. Instead of turning his jets on–he only had to juke Matt Ryan–Bly does a Deion Sanders ballerina pose only to have the ball stripped by Falcons TE Roddy White.

Here was Captain Bly’s quote before Mike Singletary spoke to him:

I had did that when I caught the ball. I’m going to be me… that’s who I’ve been my whole life, that’s who I was in college. I have fun. Dre’s gonna be Dre.

First, a moment to mourn the death of basic grammar…

…And…breathe…

I’ve always wondered about that phrase. “I’m going to be me.” Why do these guys think we think they can turn into someone else? Also, Dre, if you weren’t you, would you still be a football player? What if you were a sanitation engineer responsible for cleaning portable out-houses? Would you still want to be Dre or hope to be someone else? Do you have to get new credit cards every time you become Dre, again?

Bly’s girlie pose was only the beginning. After Singletary put his legendary “eye-f**k” on the 11-year vet, Dre apologized like he had just kicked a triplets’ baby carriage. I actually thought he was going to cry.

I’m glad he didn’t say, “I just wasn’t being myself. I would have been really confused.

We welcome our readers to their nominees for Octobers Golden Tampon Award. You too can determine who gets the honor of receiving the first “Tampy.”

TOEING THE LINE

Not a whole lot to choose for my specialty picks. As the year unfolds, the bookies get a better bead on each teams strengths and weaknesses. My system, to the extent I have one, does not rely on the tendency sheets popular in betting circles.

I just don’t buy it that, for example, the Colts ‘09 team is affected by the fact they have never won in the state of Arizona during a hailstorm or has never been successful in the nation’s capital on Thursday nights. The weather, bye weeks, playing surface, injuries are legitimate factors. The other second tier information is fun to kick around, but has little statistical significance.

I go on how a given team is playing at the point I’m making the pick…

THE UPSET OF THE WEEK

Having said that look for Matt Schaub to have a good day against Cincinnati. Marvin Lewis’ team has had a bad habit of forgetting to play the week after a hard fought win over a division opponent.

THE LOCK OF THE WEEK

I don’t see a true lock anywhere on the board, but the St. Louis Rams have Marc Bulger back at QB. They’ll cover with the 10 points. Jacksonville is reeling and Jack Del Rio might not be able to bring them back.

THE SUCKERS BET OF THE WEEK

San Diego owes Denver from the worst officials’ call of 2008 but Denver is the more complete, balanced team. Tune in, but don’t put money down.

As always, the weekly lines I use are found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml

My picks are in bold italics below:

NFL Lines For Week 6 – NFL Football Line Week Six

NFL Line 10/18 – 10/19, 2009

Monday Night Football Line

Bye Weeks: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco

• January 1, 2010 -- Week 17 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (4)
• December 25, 2009 -- Week 16 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (1)
• December 20, 2009 -- Christmas Gifts for Athletes (3)
• December 12, 2009 -- Week 14 Picks And Analysis (1)
• December 5, 2009 -- NFL Week 13 Picks and Analysis (0)