NFL Week 4 Picks
Saturday, October 3, 2009 11:49
After a wretched first week, the Odds Gods have been good to Gairzo. My record against Vegas stands at an above decent 56% (27-21).
Let’s see what we’ve learned three weeks into the NFL’s ‘09 campaign:
In the AFC the Broncos and Jets are playing good football. Both face their toughest tests of the year as Mark Sanchez faces off against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Big Easy. I’m not feelin’ the Jets as a Super Bowl threat–yet. Rex Ryan is a proven motivator and has Gang Green playing good defense but nobody has stopped New Orleans all year–or last year, for that matter. Look for the Saints to make it a rough landing for the Jets.
The Broncos got lucky to beat the Bengals and then defeated Cleveland and Oakland. They have the look of a seriously overrated team. Fortunately, they face the depleted and possibly tired Cryboys a mile above sea level. Over-hyped or not, the Broncs are tough at home.
The AFC’s biggest disappointments from Tennessee are sick of that label and should throttle the “Jagwires” in Florida. Pittsburgh needs a win badly unless they want the hangover albatross to perch season-long on their collective shoulder pads. I think the Bolts will stay within the line but the Steelers will finally win a close one.
The only reason I don’t pick the Men of Lighting outright is, admittedly a silly one: the Steelers should be the more desperate team. Big Ben and his cohorts plan on being in a professional wrestling spectacle Monday evening, while the rest of America watches football. Roethlisberger and Co. have to know how utterly stupid they will look inside that WWE ring–where anything can go wrong–the night after they lose their third game in a row as defending champs.
Should that happen, the Steelers young coach, Mike Tomlin, would be facing his first serious dose of adversity at the helm of the NFL’s most stable franchise.
Over in the NFC… where is the impressive team like Baltimore, Indy, or the Jetsons? The Saints have beaten Buffalo, Detroit, and Philly. San Fran is my dark horse entry to make noise in January because I believe Mike Singletary can actually frighten his players into being their best. The G-Men are probably the best the NFC has to offer and they can beat anybody in the league.
THE WEEKLY TRIFECTA
Prescience? Genius? Dumb Ass Luck? Call it what you want; the Gairzo correctly predicted the Lions would win against Washington, the Bears were a lock to whip The Seahawks, and Dallas would eke out a screwy game from the Panthers.
This week’s match-ups are kind of wishy-washy, meaning none jump out as being a true lock or a ripe upset. Unfortunately, that means I have to actually give my Trifecta choices some deeper thought than my vodka-induced impulses usually require. I hope you appreciate the effort I put into this.
THE UPSET OF THE WEEK
Take Oakland and the 9.5 points. Houston couldn’t stop the run in a discarded pair of nylons. Look for Daren McFadden to have a breakout game and the Raiders to score at least three touchdowns. Of course, that can happen only if JaMarcus Russell throws the ball better than my grandma, who has been dead for 30 years. I’m betting J-Marc can–Grandma always had bad mechanics.
THE LOCK OF THE WEEK
Word from the Big Apple says the Jets will head into the House of New Orleans without their starting cornerbacks, Lito Shepard and Donald Strickland. That’s going to make life easy for Drew Brees and the Saints who get their best receiver, Lance Moore back from a nagging quad injury. Brees will throw for 300 yards and 4 TDs. Yeah, I’m just not feelin’ the Jets.
THE SUCKERS BET OF THE WEEK
I think it’s safe to say more than a few Packers would like to slaughter Brett Favre until he was black and blue. The Monday Nighter between the Pack and the Purple People Cleaters will not be just another bruising game. There is real resentment, anger, revenge in a lot of Green Bay over what Brett the Waffler put his former team through during the last two years. Favre is hurting anyway which means the Vikes will put this one on the huge shoulders belonging to one Adrian Peterson. The Packers will be out for blood and could win this one by at least ten–then again, AP might run for a buck eighty and a couple touchdowns. Too close to call, but I’ll take Green Bay.
As always, the weekly lines I use are found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml
My picks are in bold italics below:
NFL Lines For Week 4 – 10/4 – 10/5, 2009
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | At Houston | -9.5 | Oakland | 42.5 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | Tennessee | -3 | At Jacksonville | 41.5 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | At New England | -2 | Baltimore | 44.5 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | Cincinnati | -5.5 | At Cleveland | 38 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | NY Giants | -8.5 | At Kansas City | 42.5 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | At Chicago | -10 | Detroit | 39 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | At Washington | -7 | Tampa Bay | 37 |
| 10/4 1:00 ET | At Indianapolis | -10.5 | Seattle | 44 |
| 10/4 4:05 ET | At New Orleans | -7 | NY Jets | 45 |
| 10/4 4:05 ET | Buffalo | -2 | At Miami | 37 |
| 10/4 4:15 ET | At San Francisco | -9.5 | St. Louis | 37 |
| 10/4 4:15 ET | Dallas | -3 | At Denver | 42 |
| 10/4 8:20 ET | At Pittsburgh | -6.5 | San Diego | 43 |
Monday Night Line
| 10/5 8:35 ET | At Minnesota | -3.5 | Green Bay | 45.5 |
Nate Barlow
says:
October 3rd, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Absolutely agree with your Sucker's Bet. Way too many intangibles. Upset, too. I think Houston will win, but that spread is big. I still have high hopes for the Texans for the seasons, though I worry about their consistency. I don't trust Russell to pass well enough to actually win the game for the Raiders, however.
Hopefully we'll have a better sense of who else might challenge in the NFC in a couple weeks. As I've said before, the Niners are also my dark horse because of Singletary. If that doesn't pan out this year though, watch out for them next!