NFL Week 3 Picks

I figured it might take me a couple, three, weeks to get back to .500 on my picks. But, thanks to a boffo 11-5 week two record, The Gairzo has his head above the quicksand at 17-16 for the year.

However, I can only claim one leg of my Trifecta picks; that being The Sucker BOTW with Atlanta and Carolina playing closer than what experts were saying. However, the Men of Steel played like cheap tin against a stout Bears team that may have found the quarterback they’ve been seeking for the last 20 years. Off his back foot, Jay Cutler throws a faster ball than any QB in the league. He may have the demeanor of a spoiled teenager, but Cutler zipped the pigskin into his receivers’ spleens with Steelers all over the play.

In the ‘Burgh, the fanatics are already talking about a Super Bowl hangover. I watched every play of that game; the Steelers and Bears generally played like excellent, well=coached, disciplined teams. The Bears made the clutch pays when they had to; the Steelers did not. Sometimes it is that simple.

What a great league the NFL is; every week the match-ups are compelling and every game has a story that evolves from the previous week…

This week’s headline:

LIPSTICK FOUND ON JERRY JONES’ BUTTOCKS

If you look real close you can see Roger Goodell’s pucker marks on Jerry Jones’ ass. I’m just a fan, but excuse me–how do the Dallas Cowboys rate two home games in prime time, on consecutive Sunday and Monday nights when we have yet to see top shelf teams like Baltimore, New Orleans, or San Francisco?

In the last 15 years Dallas has not made a significant playoff run, which means they’ve not won an NFC crown and, of course haven’t played in or won a Super Bowl.

My legion of incisive, intelligent readers might be asking, “But, Gairzo, whatever could be the reason for giving special treatment to the most overrated, over-hyped team in NFL history?”

Well, my dearies, it could be because Jones heads the significant cadre of NFL owners–including Robert Kraft, Pat Bowlen, and Daniel Snyder–who are sick of subsidizing the consistently poor Lions, Bengals, and Chiefs of the NFL world. These guys have put millions into stadiums that must be filled if they are to recoup their investments. The Cowboys are given special treatment so Jerry and his buddies will play nice when the owners lockout the players next year.

The structure and future of NFL ownership could drastically change during that labor/management standoff—and probably not for the better.

DA RAIDAS

I can’t pick against Dallas thrashing Carolina on Monday Night. But, I have a feeling, a slight tremor of hope the Raidas might be on the upswing even though they can’t fill their stadium; I look for them to bring a suddenly cocky Denver team back down from their Mile High.

The NFL was more interesting when the Raiders were its most hateable team. Now, all those fanatics dressed as if they were auditioning for a credit card commercial just look pathetic.

WEEK 2 ANALYSIS

Besides the Cryboys, there are other teams for whom week 3 might be pivotal in determining their ‘09 success. Two of them meet in Cincy when the Striped Cats host the Steelers. The Bengals never learn; sometimes it is best to just shut the hell up. Chad “85″ is a good example. He legally changed his name to a Spanish number and seems to forget the Steelers have had that number most of his career. In Ocho’s last five meetings with the Black & Gold he has caught exactly uno touchdown pass. Yet Mr. Cinco believes it’s a perfect time to resurrect his infamous List of Cornerbacks he wants to beat. Ocho Cinco? I get it, Chad is proud of his IQ.

I think the Bengals will cover but lose on a Jeff Reed redemption field goal in overtime.

New York’s Green Team hosts the Titans and I look for Jeff Fisher’s boys to make Mark Sanchez crash and burn. Meanwhile the week’s best tilt will be in New England as the Pasties host the Birds of Prey. San Francisco can make the Horny Norsemen sweat icicles if they find a way to stop the Purple Train named Adrian Petersen.

WEEKLY TRIFECTA

I’m at a very lofty .666 on my specialty picks. Remember, I’m picking against the spread so, if I say a team will win and they don’t, but do cover the line, I get credit for the correct call…

THE UPSET OF THE WEEK… YEAR?

You heard it here first: the Detroit Lions will win outright against Washington. The late great Bucco play by play man, Bob Prince, concocted the term “hidden vigorish” to theorize a team that hadn’t won (or lost) in a great while was more likely to do the opposite as the streak lengthened.

Simply, Detroit is due. They played relatively well in their first two games even without any idea how to win. They are young but have more talent than people think, and Jim Schwarz is chipping away at the losing culture Matt Millen planted in cement during the last decade. Look for the defense to score early and hold off a Washington comeback.

THE LOCK OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh made it easy for Jay Cutler and the Bears to make a statement to the NFC. Chicago will repeat that statement and find the Pacific Northwest to be full of salmon and other prey Bears feed on… Seahawks anyone? Look for Chicago to rip the Seahawks a new ____. I’ll let you fill in the blank.

SUCKERS BET OF THE WEEK

Loyal readers will find it no surprise Carolina is involved in this call again. The Panthers look putrid in week one, then give powerful Atlanta all they can handle. This week the schizophrenic puddy tats play the Cryboys who aren’t any less inconsistent or talented. I wouldn’t go anywhere near this line.

As always, the weekly lines I use are found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml

My picks are in bold italics below:

NFL Lines For Week 3 – NFL Football Line Week Three

9/27 – 9/28, 2009

Monday Night Football Line

• January 1, 2010 -- Week 17 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (4)
• December 25, 2009 -- Week 16 Picks and Analysis – NFL Football (1)
• December 20, 2009 -- Christmas Gifts for Athletes (3)
• December 12, 2009 -- Week 14 Picks And Analysis (1)
• December 5, 2009 -- NFL Week 13 Picks and Analysis (0)