NFL Week 2 Picks
Saturday, September 19, 2009 13:00
Last week I took a loss on the Steelers because I was scurrying to pack for a two-week vacation in Costa Rica. I also did not check what I pasted into my Word file and, for some reason, did not post the Baltimore/KC and the Atlanta/Miami tilts–both games I called correctly. However, protocol requires I take the loss on those two contests as well.
So, I’m left with a Week 1 record of 6-10 against the Vegas line
On the happier side of things my Weekly Trifecta, The Upset of the Week, The Lock of the Week, and The Suckers Bet of the Week, were spot on. I surprised myself how accurate my analysis was–don’t get used to such perfection. This is my first time via a public medium against gangster odds; so, I’ll probably have my ups and downs. To prove it, I’ll keep the percentages on my picks as a whole and my Trifecta picks beginning next week.
And, I won’t be giving any more games away because of technical issues–you can bet on that.
WEEK 2 ANALYSIS
Great match ups this week–and last week revealed a couple of teams who may fall short of their advertising as well as a couple who are living off their laurels.
Cincinnati is looking to avenge yet another kick in the nuts by the Funky Foot of Fate. No team has sucked defeat from the toes of victory more than the Bengals. That late in the game, aren’t secondary coaches supposed to tell their charges to knock the ball down unless it’s drilled into their gut?
I’m still trying to figure out how the Bills lost to New England. The only way to beat Brady’s Bunch is to pressure Tommy Boy relentlessly. Late in the game Buffalo went to the same defense Pittsburgh shrunk to in last year’s Super Bowl. In reality, we never hear about “The Prevent” when it works. Still, you hang back, and a great NFL QB will pick you off like a Special Ops sniper.
My Week 2 picks are below in bold italic… and the odds sheet can be found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml
NFL Lines For Week 2
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Kansas City | -3 | Oakland | 38.5 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Tennessee | -6.5 | Houston | 40.5 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | New England | -3.5 | At NY Jets | 45.5 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Green Bay | -9 | Cincinnati | 42 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | Minnesota | -10 | At Detroit | 46.5 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Philadelphia | PK | New Orleans | 46.5 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Atlanta | -6 | Carolina | 43 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Washington | -9.5 | St. Louis | 37 |
| 9/20 1:00 ET | At Jacksonville | -3 | Arizona | 42.5 |
| 9/20 4:05 ET | At San Francisco | -1.5 | Seattle | 39.5 |
| 9/20 4:05 ET | At Buffalo | -5 | Tampa Bay | 42 |
| 9/20 4:15 ET | At Denver | -3 | Cleveland | 37.5 |
| 9/20 4:15 ET | At San Diego | -3 | Baltimore | 40.5 |
| 9/20 4:15 ET | Pittsburgh | -3 | At Chicago | 38 |
| 9/20 8:20 ET | At Dallas | -3 | NY Giants | 44.5 |
Monday Night Football Line
| 9/21 8:35 ET | Indianapolis | -3 | At Miami | 42 |
THE GAIRZO TRIFECTA
THE UPSET OF THE WEEK – Look for the Mighty Quinn and the Cuyahoga Brownies to feast on a weak Denver secondary still giddy from the Bungle in the Jungle at Cincinnati. BTW, the Broncos inched up a few spots on my hate list. I actually heard a Denver sportscaster dub the lucky play the “Immaculate Deflection.”
Please. Can’t these saps be more creative than to leach off perhaps the most famous play in NFL history? The facts that made Harris’ catch unforgettable–and thus, Immaculate–are it erased 40 years of Steeler play-off futility, launched the greatest dynasty in NFL history, and made a fool out of Jack Tatum. If he hadn’t thrown a cheap shot on the Pittsburgh receiver and simply KNOCKED THE DAMN BALL DOWN, The Raidas might have beaten undefeated Miami in the subsequent AFC Championship Game.
THE LOCK OF THE WEEK – I think the Steelers are the league’s best and they will beat the Bears by at least 10.
THE SUCKER BET OF THE WEEK – What Carolina team will show up? The well balanced, clicking on all cylinders, Dr. Jekylls, or the overdosed on catnip Mr. Hydes?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Until next week… I’ll be thinking of you as I sip a Costa Rican Marguerita…
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Nate Barlow
says:
September 19th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
I'm a Patriots fan and I'm still amazed that the Pats came back. Returning that kick ranks up there on the dumb play ladder with Leon Lett sliding in the snow. You cannot give a good quarterback opportunities like that. What better way to have Tom Brady return to being Tom Brady after his injury?
Even with a -9 line, it's tough to pick Cincy in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is starting to come into his own; last week's game showed that. Still big lines early in the season… I can see why you went that way.
Shows just how sad the Lions are (if we needed any more reason) that you'd still take the Vikings with a -10 line.
Oakland at KC? I know neither are great squads, but it's still the Raiders.
NFL Week 2 Picks- Forex4Trader says:
September 19th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
[...] the original here: NFL Week 2 Picks Tags: both-games, loss, not-check, take-the-loss, Technical analysis, the-happier, vegas, [...]
ernessa
says:
September 21st, 2009 at 4:59 am
Well you took a hit on Pittsburgh I hear. But yay for the Giants! I love this feature and will consult it every week before watching (and by watching I mean working on FaN while CH watches) football.
Nate Barlow
says:
September 21st, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Lock of the Week… Gairzo, don't let your fandom get in the way of making the right call! It's the most difficult part of prognostication. :-)
Gairzo
says:
September 21st, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Honestly Nate, I don't do that in my picks. The Steelers are the better team than Chicago and made more crucial, bigger mistakes than the Bears who played a hell of a game. I give the Bears credit. They earned the victory. The rain contributed to mistakes by both teams. It's a different story on a good weather day.
BTW, next weeks contest vs Cincy will tell us lot about the Steelers 2009 potential; big test.
Nate Barlow
says:
September 21st, 2009 at 7:07 pm
:) I just wanted to give you a bit of a hard time, since it was "The Lock" and "The Steelers" are your team. I know that's not your intent. But I also know it can be tough to pick against one's team.
The Bears deserve a lot of credit. They almost pulled off the victory in Green Bay on a day Cutler was awful. Weather always contributes, but Pittsburgh and Chicago are both bad weather teams, so to me that's always a wash. Yes, it causes mistakes, but they usually break out even. It's not like sending the Dolphins into Lambeau or Buffalo or New England in December. Huge advantage to the home team in that situation.