NFL Week 1 Picks
Saturday, September 12, 2009 15:05
I’ll take a loss on the Steelers who were a 6.5 favorite over the Titans and won by only three.
Each week I’ll pick every game and keep a running tab of my prognostication skills.
The weekly lines I’ll be using are found here: www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml.
If there are any readers out there who care to take me on, have your picks in by Sunday at 12:45 PM ET.
My picks are in bold italic below. Each week I’ll feature…
The Upset of the Week
The Lock of the Week and
The Suckers Bet of the Week
Sunday Line
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 9/10/8:30 ET | At Pittsburgh | 6.5 | Tennessee | 43.5 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | Philadelphia | -2.5 | At Carolina | 43.5 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | At Cincinnati | -4.5 | Denver | 43 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | Minnesota | -4 | At Cleveland | 40 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | At Houston | -4.5 | NY Jets | 44 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | At Indianapolis | -7 | Jacksonville | 44.5 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | At New Orleans | -13 | Detroit | 49 |
| 9/13 1:00 ET | Dallas | -6 | At Tampa Bay | 39 |
| 9/13 4:15 ET | At Arizona | -6.5 | San Francisco | 46 |
| 9/13 4:15 ET | At NY Giants | -6.5 | Washington | 37.5 |
| 9/13 4:15 ET | At Seattle | -8 | St. Louis | 41 |
| 9/13 8:20 ET | At Green Bay | -3.5 | Chicago | 46 |
Monday Night Football Line
| 9/14 7:00 ET | At New England | -11 | Buffalo | 47.5 |
| 9/14 10:15 ET | San Diego | -9.5 | At Oakland | 43 |
This early in a season, I’m leery of any spread beyond 10 points. I might kick myself about the Detroit pick, but I was a Lions fan when I was little and am hoping they will turn it around.
Bet you didn’t know I am such a sentimental kind of guy.
UPSET SPECIAL – San Fran will win outright against Arizona. The Cards, if you believe what some pundits and some players themselves say, haven’t gotten over the loss to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLIII while San Francisco has had a productive camp – the Crabtree conundrum not withstanding.
LOCK OF THE WEEK – Gotta be the Vikings over the Browns. Minnesota features a talented offense and superb defense. Cleveland didn’t do itself right by hiring the Mangenius. His handling of the QB decision reeks of troubling insecurity, at best, palpable paranoia, at worse. If Favre’s ego hasn’t infected the soul of the Horned Norsemen, the Vikings could be a playoff nightmare in the NFC.
THE SUCKER BET OF THE WEEK – Indy over Jacksonville. Too many “out of game dynamics” make this an impossible call. Jack Del Rio is coaching for his life and his player’s know he has stuck his throat under the paper cutter for them. Jim Caldwell is an unknown as a head coach and Tony Dungy had a deeper imprint on the character of the team than we might think. I picked Indy because of Manning; Jacksonville has a two by four on their shoulder and will want to prove they can win against the division’s best. Stay away from this one.
Nate Barlow
says:
September 14th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Sorry I did not have a chance to weigh in yesterday before pick time! I agree that it's tough to justify 11 point spreads this early in the season (by the way, what were your straight up picks? I always find the straight-up/line comparison interesting).
Of course, the most interesting bet is what's the over-under on playing minutes for the season before TO implodes?