NBA Conference Finals Dogfights
Monday, May 25, 2009 12:08
Coming into the postseason, the smart money in NBA Betting was on a Lakers – Cavaliers showdown in the NBA Finals.
As the Conference Finals progress, that inevitability is appearing less and less certain, with each game in both the East and the West being extremely hard-fought and evenly matched.
Of course, any time a heavy favorite struggles in a series, one must ask several questions. Has the other team found a hitherto unseen weakness? Does the opponent have the perfect confluence of players and style of play to neutralize the superior team’s strength? What other factors (too much rest, too little rest, injuries, etc.) could be bringing the favorite down? Or, is it simply that the favorite was overrated in the first place?
Let’s first take look at the Lakers. Yes, the Lake Show is currently up 2-1, but the could easily be down 3-0; LA’s two victories were that close to losses. The writing was on the wall that the Lakers had flaws in the Houston Rockets series, what with LA’s two embarrassing defeats in Games 4 and 6. Couple those losses with the Denver Nuggets absolutely rolling over the Dallas Mavericks, and Lakers fans already had reason to be worried.
Regardless of what happens in Game 4 against Denver, the Lakers will return to Los Angeles having reclaimed home court advantage with their victory in Game 3. But how confident can one be about their long term prospects, even if they escape the Conference Finals? The Lakers undoubtedly have the talent to win it all, along with the experience stemming from last year’s run cut that was short by the Celtics. But do they have the heart and the attitude? As strong as the Lakers are on offense, their defensive play is lackadaisical. It would be one thing if they were simply a poor defensive team, but the truth is, the Lakers are capable on playing decent D–their just lazy on that side of the ball.
That deplorable, non-chalant attitude has haunted the Lake Show the entire season. Can they still raise the trophy? Yes, of course, but talk about a double-whammy in their quest: defense and a proper mindset are what win championships.
But what if you placed your sports betting money on the Cavaliers? Cleveland is a more interesting case. Down 2-1, they could also be down 3-0 if not for LeBron James’s beautiful 3-pointer to win Game 2. Coming into this series, Cleveland was dominant in every sense of the word. There was no reason not to expect more of the same against Orlando. And in both home games the Cavaliers charged out of the gate with huge leads, only to see those advantages dwindle away.
Other factors seem to be at play in the Magic – Cavaliers series. The Magic showed in their series against the Celtics that they are a much better team than most people realized. Coming into the Conference Finals, I think it’s safe to say that Orlando was being underrated, more so than Cleveland overrated. Then there is the degree of rest, always a highly debatable topic. Is more rest better, to recover from injuries and recharge the batteries, or does too much rest risk you losing momentum? The Cavaliers had a very long layoff after defeating Atlanta, while the Magic barely survived in their hotly contested battle with Boston. Did too much time off cool down the Cavs, and did Orlando’s successful do-or-die status thus transform them into the hotter team? Game 4 will be the determining factor here; if Cleveland can pull off the W, it’s a brand new series, and I think the momentum definitely shifts back to the Cavaliers, along with Championship favorite status. But if the Magic win–this series is over.
In the end, that dream Finals match-up of Kobe and LeBron is still a possibility… but a lot less of a sure thing than it appeared just a week ago.
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